Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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  Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 188852 times)
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #825 on: March 14, 2014, 09:17:06 PM »

I have a poll for Arkansas.  You may not take it since it is over a year old and it comes from the Human Rights Campaign, but it shows support for Gay Marriage at 38% to 55% who oppose it.

http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #826 on: March 15, 2014, 01:26:55 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2014, 04:54:54 PM by True Federalist »

I have a poll for Arkansas.  You may not take it since it is over a year old and it comes from the Human Rights Campaign, but it shows support for Gay Marriage at 38% to 55% who oppose it.

http://s1.daumcdn.net/editor/fp/service_nc/pencil/Pencil_chromestore.html


With the caveat that it is a very old poll for Arkansas, it could be relevant to a subsequent change. I expect more polls of Arkansas in view of hot 2014 races.  



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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ZonedOut
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« Reply #827 on: March 19, 2014, 02:14:10 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2014, 02:15:44 PM by ZonedOut »

Colorado now supports marriage equality 56-36.  Interesting that legal marijuana only polls one point better, despite having been legalized in 2012.

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-happy-with-marijuana-legalization-supports-gay-marriage.html

edit:  They REALLY should have considered taking it to the ballot this year.  It actually might have helped in the Senate/Gov races there.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #828 on: March 21, 2014, 06:06:31 PM »

Quote
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http://news.yahoo.com/judge-strikes-down-michigans-ban-gay-marriage-210904633.html

This one will likely stick.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #829 on: March 21, 2014, 09:07:53 PM »

Agreed, but I expect that an appeals court will likely issue a stay.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #830 on: March 21, 2014, 11:58:11 PM »

I wouldn't include the Arkansas poll on my map.  Recently, I've decided to discount any poll conducted for or by any party or organization.  My best guess is that at least 60% of Arkansans oppose SSM, at this point.
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Smash255
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« Reply #831 on: March 23, 2014, 02:29:20 PM »

Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
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Blue3
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« Reply #832 on: March 23, 2014, 02:41:08 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2014, 02:49:59 PM by Starwatcher »

Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
The Wikipedia version is good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States#State_laws







And more specifically... if we assume that every state that has legalized SSM then halted it due pending decision does eventually get it completely legalized... here are the states color-coded to show which ones do and do not have SSM:

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #833 on: March 23, 2014, 03:08:48 PM »

Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
Maybe we could color states that approve of Gay marriage and have there gay marriage bans going through the courts could be blue, as in Michigan and Va.  States like Texas, Ky, and Ok could be colored using Yellow.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #834 on: March 23, 2014, 03:29:11 PM »

Since we currently have a bunch of states where the ban was overturned, but a stay was issued for appeal, should we have another shading for that?
The Wikipedia version is good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States#State_laws



Such a busy map. I'd like think this will all be blue in 5 years. At this point it would take a legal expert to understand all the confusing gay marriage laws in every state.





And more specifically... if we assume that every state that has legalized SSM then halted it due pending decision does eventually get it completely legalized... here are the states color-coded to show which ones do and do not have SSM:


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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #835 on: March 23, 2014, 03:35:42 PM »

Here is what the map would look like with my proposal.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #836 on: March 23, 2014, 03:39:21 PM »

Only on Atlas could someone see a nine-color U.S. map and an eleven-color U.S. map and then suggest, "hey guys, I have an idea: let's add more colors."

I await the day when we reach peak Atlas: a U.S. map with a 51-color key.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #837 on: March 23, 2014, 08:25:56 PM »

Only on Atlas could someone see a nine-color U.S. map and an eleven-color U.S. map and then suggest, "hey guys, I have an idea: let's add more colors."

I await the day when we reach peak Atlas: a U.S. map with a 51-color key.

Peak Atlas would be a 57-color key with one for each ME/NE CD and for Puerto Rico.  (Originally, you could get the Atlas map generator to include Puerto Rico by manually setting the year to 2008 in the URL, but when Dave revised the generator to support the 2008 EV Calculator, the option for manually adding in PR was dropped.)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #838 on: March 23, 2014, 11:05:58 PM »

The only basic colors that we lack are black and violet/purple/lavender.

Accepting that 10% saturation for anything but "0" gets white, the five current colors get 40 different shades altogether. Purple would add eight more. Black would add seven more (because we already have a medium gray for selecting "0".

   
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IceSpear
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« Reply #839 on: March 24, 2014, 10:45:29 AM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #840 on: March 24, 2014, 10:51:05 AM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #841 on: March 24, 2014, 10:56:54 AM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #842 on: March 24, 2014, 12:38:10 PM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?

Eventually, it'll become this map:
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IceSpear
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« Reply #843 on: March 24, 2014, 01:50:03 PM »

Yes, but the thread title is "polls on same-sex marriage laws", not "legality of same sex marriage".
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #844 on: March 24, 2014, 03:35:25 PM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

I'm pretty sure that all the states that have SSM have majority support, save for possibly Iowa and New Mexico.

Yeah, but the margin is the interesting part. If we're going to remove the shade from any state that already has gay marriage, won't it just become a carbon copy of Wikipedia's map eventually?

It's margins where same-sex marriage is not legal, with the qualification that once same-sex marriage is legal as the result of legislation or a legal ruling that sticks (appeals failed or denied) is treated as permanent.

We could have a color for legal limbo, but there are always questions of whether (1) appeals will be denied or upheld, and (2) the interpretation of a legal finding. Legalization of SSM under limited conditions (valid for marriages contracted out of state only, military only, Indian reservations only, permitted in a limited number of counties) probably does not qualify as full legalization.

In view of the nature of rulings, the narrowest interpretation is almost always the right one.

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Nutmeg
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« Reply #845 on: March 24, 2014, 10:51:23 PM »

Yes, but the thread title is "polls on same-sex marriage laws", not "legality of same sex marriage".

I agree. Even if something is legal, it's still interesting (even if perhaps relevant) to note public opinion regarding that thing.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #846 on: March 25, 2014, 08:06:18 PM »

Perhaps we could compromise and make two maps? Tongue
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #847 on: March 25, 2014, 08:28:37 PM »

Perhaps we could compromise and make two maps? Tongue

If someone wants to go to the bother of adding in the polls from all the states where it is recognized and assigning shades of blue and yellow to the margins, I don't mind.  I just don't care to do the work that would involve.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #848 on: March 26, 2014, 06:44:07 AM »

To be honest, I don't even know why states that have gay marriage already aren't shaded. Are we not curious about public opinion in those states as well?

We may yet have the issue resolved in a USSC ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia.

There is still much disapproval of interracial marriage, but there is some finality to court rulings.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #849 on: March 26, 2014, 02:55:32 PM »

SCOTUS already did a partial gay Loving v. Virgina with Lawrence v. TexasLoving wasn't about merely whether the government had to accord interracial marriages the same rights and benefits as monoracial marriages, but also whether they were legal at all, regardless of whether the government treated them the same.
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