Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is SSM on the ballot in any state this fall?

Indiana was a possibility for a constitutional-ban referendum but I don't think anything came of that.

[MaxQue]

Is SSM on the ballot in any state this fall?

Indiana was a possibility for a constitutional-ban referendum but I don't think anything came of that.

I think the House decided to amend the proposal they voted in 2011-2012. As the same text must be voted two legislatures in a row to allow a constitutionnal referendum, the House and Senate must revote the new text in 2015-2016 for a referendum in 2016.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

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Man, even if you look at Obama's massive underperformance in Arkansas n 2012, gay marriage has a much more extreme SSM PVI than Obama PVI.

Funny timing for my comment. And the Arkansas voters can't stop their elected judges from going with the 27%.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

An Arkansas judge has struck down the state's gay marriage ban and has not issued a stay, meaning that the state will begin issuing licenses as early as Monday.  The AG has requested a stay, but based on the rhetoric of the ruling judge, I'd say that it's highly unlikely to be granted.  I'll color the state appropriately, but of course it will revert to its original shade if the present ruling is stayed or nullified.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

An Arkansas judge has struck down the state's gay marriage ban and has not issued a stay, meaning that the state will begin issuing licenses as early as Monday.  The AG has requested a stay, but based on the rhetoric of the ruling judge, I'd say that it's highly unlikely to be granted.  I'll color the state appropriately, but of course it will revert to its original shade if the present ruling is stayed or nullified.

I am going to suggest a category for states in which same-sex marriage has been authorized by a ruling of a court yet subject to an appeal. The color is pale blue, and I will apply it to both Arkansas (where such has happened) and now Idaho. Such can be a transition to white, signifying a more permanent legalization of SSM when the State either drops appeals or authorizes SSM through legislation or a successful referendum or initiative to the effect. Such may be a transition to one of the other colors (the most recent poll?) should the appeal be upheld. This is for the legalization of SSM in a state and not merely recognition of SSM performed elsewhere. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Light blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

PPP. Alaska:

-Public opinion in Alaska just continues to move further and further in support of gay marriage. 52% of voters favor it now to 43% who are opposed. Those numbers have basically flipped from last February when the numbers were 43% in support and 51% opposed. Voters under 65 support it 55/41, with only seniors remaining opposed at 39/54. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/alaska-miscellany.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Light blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

A federal judge just gave the boot to Oregon's SSM ban. I'm not predicting whether there will be an appeal...

Knowing that there is widespread support for SSM in Oregon, I am going to color Oregon dark blue with the expectation that it neither the Governor nor the State legislature will even try to  appeal. Have a little patience. Pale blue is for states in which a state has majority opposition to SSM (AR) or in which such is assumed (ID); dark blue is for states in which an unpopular SSM has been struck down by the courts.   

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.


Light blue )20% saturation) -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal
dark blue -- same-sex marriage law struck down, but documented plurality support for SSM.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

If the Detroit Tigers are up 3-0 in the World Series with two outs in the NL Champion's ninth inning with the Tigers up 12-0 in the game, I wait for the last out to declare the Tigers the World Champions. 

Orange instead of blue? OK. I endorse and accept that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the Detroit Tigers are up 3-0 in the World Series with two outs in the NL Champion's ninth inning with the Tigers up 12-0 in the game, I wait for the last out to declare the Tigers the World Champions. 

I think the last out has been declared, tho I grant it is possible the losing team will appeal to the commissioner.  Oregon didn't even defend the case and I see no reason to think it would appeal a case it didn't defend.  Third party efforts to get a stay have already been rebuffed in this case and the decision handed out in Perry last summer make it clear they have zero chance of success.

[pbrower2a]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

I'm going to put Oregon back in pale blue until the State says that it will drop appeals. Such will likely not take long. I look forward to putting Oregon (and other states!) in white. I insist upon the last out or for the clock to run out even in a blowout victory

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal
Light blue (20% saturation) -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal unlikely to happen. Polling shows support for SSM.


Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Go ahead and make Pennsylvania white.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

I'm going to put Oregon back in pale blue until the State says that it will drop appeals. Such will likely not take long. I look forward to putting Oregon (and other states!) in white. I insist upon the last out or for the clock to run out even in a blowout victory

They said back in February they weren't going to defend the case, which they didn't.  I see absolutely no reason to think they would at thirteenth hour decide to appeal a case they didn't bother to defend.

Go ahead and make Pennsylvania white.

Orange, since it looks like there will be an appeal from the Governor instead of the AG.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Oregon ban has been overturned and does not look to be stayed or appealed, so I don't see any reason to not make it be simply white. Also I'm changing light blue to orange because it just blends in too well with the greens to stand out.

I'm going to put Oregon back in pale blue until the State says that it will drop appeals. Such will likely not take long. I look forward to putting Oregon (and other states!) in white. I insist upon the last out or for the clock to run out even in a blowout victory

They said back in February they weren't going to defend the case, which they didn't.  I see absolutely no reason to think they would at thirteenth hour decide to appeal a case they didn't bother to defend.

OK. That clears things.

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Orange, since it looks like there will be an appeal from the Governor instead of the AG.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

SSM may have public support in Pennsylvania -- but the embattled Governor looks like a dead-end defender of any right-wing agenda.

I'd like to say "going down faster than a man being wrestled by a Great Dane".

More and more States will have their SSM bans struck down. It could as easily be Alabama as Colorado on Wednesday. It will all likely be decided in the Supreme Court.

[Miles]

A few national polls:

Gallup: 55/42 Support

Rassy: 45/41 Support

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Somewhat surprisingly, Corbett has decided not to appeal the PA decision, which means there's no one with standing left to do so, so coloring Pennsylvania white.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Lief 🗽]

Same sex marriage is legal in the entire northeast now! Neat!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Shouldn't Utah and Oklahoma be orange since they're also in limbo?

[pbrower2a]

Shouldn't Utah and Oklahoma be orange since they're also in limbo?

Under appeal, with SSM applications are neither offered nor accepted. So it is in Michigan.

Polls for SSM are relevant because an initiative to allow SSM might pass in Michigan, making appeals and stays moot... but such would be highly unlikely in Utah, Idaho, Arizona, or Oklahoma.

Great news on Pennsylvania! 

[Thomas D]

Anyone have an update on Virginia? I thought a judge struck down the ban a few months ago And I'm not sure who would be appealing it at this point

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anyone have an update on Virginia? I thought a judge struck down the ban a few months ago And I'm not sure who would be appealing it at this point

The State Registrar who would record the marriage if it were recognized and the County Clerk who refused to issue the license are the defendants in the Bostic case.  While the State Registrar is not appealing, the County Clerk is appealing the district court ruling.  That ruling was stayed by the district court pending appeal.  The 4th Circuit heard the appeal last Wednesday but hasn't issued any ruling. There is also another case, Harris, in a different district, but that case has been put on hold by the judge pending the 4th Circuit's decision in Bostic.

[politicallefty]

The State Registrar who would record the marriage if it were recognized and the County Clerk who refused to issue the license are the defendants in the Bostic case.  While the State Registrar is not appealing, the County Clerk is appealing the district court ruling.  That ruling was stayed by the district court pending appeal.  The 4th Circuit heard the appeal last Wednesday but hasn't issued any ruling. There is also another case, Harris, in a different district, but that case has been put on hold by the judge pending the 4th Circuit's decision in Bostic.

I'm not entirely sure how the Courts of Appeals work, but if the Fourth Circuit were to invalidate Virginia's gay marriage ban via the Bostic case, would that not extend to the entire jurisdiction of the Fourth Circuit (thus taking down the constitutional bans in NC and SC and the statutory ban in WV)?

[pbrower2a]

It depends upon how far in the State appellate system the appeals go. States largely define what marriages are lawful, with the obvious limitation of Loving vs. Virginia. Of course if an appeal goes to the US Supreme Court and the Supreme Court decides that SSM is legal in one State that resists it, then SSM is probably legal in all states irrespective of statutory law in the state.

If you want to figure why Corbett decided not to appeal -- maybe he did not want an appeal to go to the US Supreme Court. Corbett may be an awful Governor, but even he knows that pushing for some lost cause in his state might 'wreck' things for the rest of the country. 

[politicallefty]

It depends upon how far in the State appellate system the appeals go. States largely define what marriages are lawful, with the obvious limitation of Loving vs. Virginia. Of course if an appeal goes to the US Supreme Court and the Supreme Court decides that SSM is legal in one State that resists it, then SSM is probably legal in all states irrespective of statutory law in the state.

If you want to figure why Corbett decided not to appeal -- maybe he did not want an appeal to go to the US Supreme Court. Corbett may be an awful Governor, but even he knows that pushing for some lost cause in his state might 'wreck' things for the rest of the country.

The only reason I asked that question is because the Fourth Circuit and Tenth Circuit have both held oral arguments. Decisions from both of those could come at any time now. Based on what I've read, it'd be very difficult for any circuit court to constrain such a ruling to just the state in question. If the Virginia ban goes down at the Fourth Circuit, it seems like any other bans within that circuit will also be struck down (the same would apply to the Tenth Circuit or any other one for that matter).