Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Miles]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

[pbrower2a]

The Michigan State legislature is debating an anti-discrimination law with respect to homosexuality. Big Business wants it to pass, so don't be surprised to find a Democratic-libertarian coalition pass it. I don't know whether SSM is in the package.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

You'd think it would be higher, eh?

Also, lol at the 24% who said legalizing SSM would have a "negative impact" on their lives.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

You'd think it would be higher, eh?

Also, lol at the 24% who said legalizing SSM would have a "negative impact" on their lives.

Oregon is considered the most politically polarized state in the country, with vast numbers of liberals and conservatives identifying themselves as die-hards, so it's not really surprising.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PPP's latest poll on Pennsylvania shows 48% support gay marriage; 44% oppose. Meanwhile, 56% of Pennsylvanians agree with Corbett's decision to not appeal the court's decision.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html

[Person Man]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

You'd think it would be higher, eh?

Also, lol at the 24% who said legalizing SSM would have a "negative impact" on their lives.

Some of those 24% might be vain and think that they are more likely to be hit on by members of the same sex.

[pbrower2a]

WISCONSIN!

http://m.channel3000.com/court-overturns-samesex-marriage-ban/26370048

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Holmes]

Why are Idaho and Arkansas orange, but not Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan and Virginia?

[Thomas D]

The map is starting to look like the rainbow flag.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are Idaho and Arkansas orange, but not Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan and Virginia?

In those five states the decision has been stayed until heard by an appellate court, so you can't get a same-sex marriage there yet.

[politicallefty]

Why are Idaho and Arkansas orange, but not Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan and Virginia?

In those five states the decision has been stayed until heard by an appellate court, so you can't get a same-sex marriage there yet.

I'm also confused. Same-sex couples have been married in Utah and Arkansas (and I think Michigan, but I'm not sure), but never in Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, or Virginia. That doesn't explain the map.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are Idaho and Arkansas orange, but not Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan and Virginia?

In those five states the decision has been stayed until heard by an appellate court, so you can't get a same-sex marriage there yet.

I'm also confused. Same-sex couples have been married in Utah and Arkansas (and I think Michigan, but I'm not sure), but never in Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, or Virginia. That doesn't explain the map.

There were some who got married before a stay was issued in some of those states, but if you try to get a new SSM in them today, you can't.

[politicallefty]

There were some who got married before a stay was issued in some of those states, but if you try to get a new SSM in them today, you can't.

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

[pbrower2a]

There were some who got married before a stay was issued in some of those states, but if you try to get a new SSM in them today, you can't.

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

Brief windows of opportunity for SSM  that have not been reopened do not count. Neither does the simple acceptance of SSM contracted in another state or on places of federal authority (military bases and Indian reservations).

Permission to do SSM can be established by

(1) legislation authorizing it, including initiative or referendum
(2) an interpretation that the state law on marriage does not prohibit SSM)
(3) a state ban being voided by a judicial decision that the State does not appeal
(4) a state ban being voided but appealed, but the appeal being denied
(5) state bans being voided by a decision of the Supreme Court analogous to Loving vs. Virginia  that applies to all states.

All imply that the state permits SSM. States in white so far have legalized SSM through (1), (2), or (3). No state has yet gone through (4), and I cannot predict when any state will do so.

Orange implies that an appeal is in process and that the state is understood to be unfavorable to SSM. Blue implies that an appeal is in process and that the state is understood to be amenable to SSM through polling. Both colors implies that marriage licenses for same-sex couples are not underway.

Others are either gray (no polling) red (polling shows greater opposition than support), yellow (equal support and disapproval), or green (SSM higher approval than disapproval.

States in reddish shades are going to approve SSM only through a judicial decision that nobody can now predict. They will not enact SSM with the legislatures that they now have or are likely to ever have, and any initiative or referendum allowing SSM is sure to fail.  States in green could approve SSM either through specific legislation or an initiative/referendum. At that there is a huge difference between Indiana and North Carolina.

Indiana? Sure. Big Business wants it to pass even in that very conservative state -- because it is good for business.           

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans would lose the issue if they were to put it on the ballot as initiative or referendum  in Michigan or Wisconsin. In recent years they would put it on the ballot to bring out the Fundamentalist vote

[Nhoj]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

Wisconsin currently has it in 60 out 72 counties. But I imagine van hollen will eventually get a stay.

[eric82oslo]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

Wisconsin currently has it in 60 out 72 counties. But I imagine van hollen will eventually get a stay.

It's up to each county to decide whether they want same sex marriage or not?

[Nhoj]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

Wisconsin currently has it in 60 out 72 counties. But I imagine van hollen will eventually get a stay.

It's up to each county to decide whether they want same sex marriage or not?

No, its just must are issuing licenses and the others are waiting for clarification.
the number of counties issuing has steadily increased throughout the week.

[TDAS04]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

No, you forgot Iowa. 

[pbrower2a]

Except for New Mexico, every state with SSM voted for Kerry in 2004. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be the only Kerry states without it.

Iowa voted for Dubya in 2004.

Gore won Iowa and New Mexico but lost New Hampshire. Kerry won New Hampshire but lost Iowa and New Mexico.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Ok then:

No state that voted for Bush twice has SSM. Is that better?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No, you forgot Iowa. 

tbf iowa is very forgettable

[pbrower2a]

Ok then:

No state that voted for Bush twice has SSM. Is that better?

Yes. But Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are good candidates to legalize SSM.

[politicallefty]

Is any state going to vote on legalizing marriage equality this year? I know that Oregon was going to prior to its ban being struck down. What about Ohio? I'd read that there was a push to put it on the ballot this year. I can't really find any current info on that initiative. I think it'd stand a pretty good shot at passing, though very far from a sure thing.

I'm not sure why they didn't try to put it on the ballot in Colorado. Of any state currently without marriage equality, I think Colorado would be the best bet for it passing via ballot initiative (expect perhaps Nevada, where it can't be legalized until 2016).