Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Maps suggesting that Virginia would recognize SSM deleted.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So post your latest map then.

[pbrower2a]

So post your latest map then.

Just the most recent one. In most non-SSM states some political figure has effective veto power until the Supreme Court decides or that a State adopts SSM through initiative or referendum, the politician exercising the effective veto is defeated in an election.

Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I expect few changes before at least November.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana and Wisconsin could be next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(This is much citation, but much is of citations or near-citations of persons arguing a case at law).

[pbrower2a]

Indiana and Wisconsin could be are next. Opponents of SSM have been taking a rhetorical beating in the 7th Circuit Court.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/wisconsin-indiana-gay-marriage_n_5767710.html

[pbrower2a]

Subtle change. An asterisk, assuming that some Indiana pol will veto the legalization of SSM by appealing, as did the Attorney General of Wisconsin. About half of all Americans politicians are unreconstructed primitives. In view of such appeals I am not going to say that SSM is going on in Indiana or Wisconsin until same-sex couples start getting marriage licenses.

Judge Posner may have done more to kill prohibitions on SSM than anyone else.   


Barring a decision of the US Supreme Court, I still expect few changes before at least November. In any event I expect at most narrow rulings by the USSC.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM. Those states in the 7th circuit have the strongest cases against an SSM ban.

[pbrower2a]

The Ninth Circuit will be hearing its case on September 8. The judges there will be Reinhardt (Carter-appointee and author of the Prop 8 case), Berzon (Clinton-appointee), and Gould (Clinton-appointee). This one could be a slam dunk for supporters of marriage equality. As with the Seventh Circuit, this could be another 3-0 unanimous ruling.

...Nevada could easily be next, assuming that someone in Indiana appeals for a stay. Of course if there is no stay in Indiana, then Indiana is next.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So what happened?

[pbrower2a]

So what happened?

So far every state (since Pennsylvania)  in which one of the appellate courts has deemed SSM bans void has some elected official who has effective veto power over the ruling -- and has used it, at the least to delay SSM in the state.

Some appeals will go to the US Supreme Court, which has usually taken a harsh view of nullification and delay in accommodating rulings by appellate courts.   

[politicallefty]

There's really no way the Ninth Circuit is going to vote against marriage equality. It will almost certainly join three other circuit courts in finding a fundamental right of marriage equality. If (and when) it does strike down Nevada's ban, that case will be over. The defendant-intervenors in the case will have no standing to appeal and the state itself has dropped the appeal. Nevada's ban on gay marriage will be completely unenforceable once the Ninth Circuit rules that way, very likely becoming the 20th state with marriage equality. The Idaho case will still be subject to the normal appeals process.

(The Ninth Circuit hearing was really quite similar to the Seventh Circuit. The panel was brutal to the side defending the bans, as they should be. This was one of the best panels supporters of marriage equality could have asked for.)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/16/ruth-bader-ginsburg-gay-marriage_n_5833090.html

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Is SSM on the ballot in any state this November?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is SSM on the ballot in any state this November?

Nope.

[Person Man]

Nor would it be a good idea during a midterm. I think it could be a good thing to put on the ballot in Nevada, Colorado and Virginia in the general.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd be shocked if there was any point to doing that save to remove some language that the Supreme Court had already struck down (assuming we get a circuit split).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Pew's latest national figures are 49 support - 41 oppose. This is a drop from their last poll in February when it was 54 support - 39 oppose.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/poll-support-gay-marriage-leveling-off-25678805

[Thomas D]

So if SCOTUS says that they're not taking any marriage cases this week, where, if anywhere, would that legalize gay marriage?

[SteveRogers]

So if SCOTUS says that they're not taking any marriage cases this week, where, if anywhere, would that legalize gay marriage?

It looks like SCOTUS will discuss all of the petitions from the 4th, 7th,  and 10th Circuits at its conference this week. If they deny cert in all cases, then same-sex marriage will immediately become legal in Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Indiana. It should also automatically become legal in Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina since those states will be subject to the precedent in their respective circuits, but one or more of them could try to fight on by arguing that the circuit court's order doesn't apply to them. They won't win.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I expect tho that they'll not explicitly announce they're denying cert.  AFAIK, they can just sit on a cert petition, and if they think they may have split circuits soon, they might well wish to wait for that to decide.

[Tender Branson]

YouGov did all 50 states:

Gay Marriage?

[eric82oslo]

The 7 missing pieces thus would become:

Alabama: Deep red
Idaho: Red
Oklahoma: Red
Missouri: Light red
Nebraska: Light red
South Dakota: Toss up
North Dakota: Green

Better than I had expected.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

A lot of states now have SSM because the court refuse to hear cases. Update.

[pbrower2a]

The 7 missing pieces thus would become:

Alabama: Deep red
Idaho: Red
Oklahoma: Red
Missouri: Light red
Nebraska: Light red
South Dakota: Toss up
North Dakota: Green

Better than I had expected.

I am dropping this map because of the more complete map and adopting this one with modifications to be explained:

YouGov did all 50 states:

Gay Marriage?

[pbrower2a]

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6AM EST, 6 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

I hereby abandon my earlier approval/disapproval/legality map and will make no further changes upon it.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 6AM EST on 6 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
7th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.
Yellow -- toss-up.

Any district in which SSM is legalized by a decision of the US Supreme Court will go white.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Assuming no shenanigans, next week 11 more states will be white. (How do you get a white color?)

If the 9th Circuit has an all states legal thing too, then Guam and North Marriana Islands will have SSM too.