Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Half of the remaining states are southern. I wonder if any of them will have it before a massive national ruling.

[The Mikado]

Half of the remaining states are southern. I wonder if any of them will have it before a massive national ruling.

Absolutely.

Through small, regional rulings.  South Carolina will likely be fully onboard pretty soon, for example.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Half of the remaining states are southern. I wonder if any of them will have it before a massive national ruling.

Absolutely.

Through small, regional rulings.  South Carolina will likely be fully onboard pretty soon, for example.

Define soon.  It's now looking doubtful the issue will be decided before December.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200062.msg4337488#msg4337488

[tpfkaw]

PPP - ID

Same Sex Marriage?

No - 57%
Yes - 38%

Opinion on recognition?

Full Marriage - 39%
Civil Unions - 30%
No legal recognition - 29%

lol

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Please update map to include Alaska.

I find it funny that of the top 10 most populated states, half of them are in (California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)  and half of them are not (Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan).


By the way, considering that it was a circuit-wide ruling, why aren't Wyoming and Kansas in the club?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Half of the remaining states are southern. I wonder if any of them will have it before a massive national ruling.

Absolutely.

Through small, regional rulings.  South Carolina will likely be fully onboard pretty soon, for example.

Define soon.  It's now looking doubtful the issue will be decided before December.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200062.msg4337488#msg4337488

I've been waiting almost two decades for marriage equality. On that time scale, December is most definitely "soon." Especially considering the state we're talking about here.

[pbrower2a]

Please update map to include Alaska.

With pleasure. There seems to have been no appeal from state officials so far as is usually the case when there is a desire and will of State officials to do so. There would be some appeal by now.

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 15 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9

[pbrower2a]

What is the cause for the extremely-long delay with Michigan? The Supreme Court has quickly dispensed with appeals that are nothing but delaying tactics with a weak case, as with Indiana and Wisconsin.

[MaxQue]

What is the cause for the extremely-long delay with Michigan? The Supreme Court has quickly dispensed with appeals that are nothing but delaying tactics with a weak case, as with Indiana and Wisconsin.

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

[eric82oslo]

Get ready to pinkify Arizona as well.

[SteveRogers]

Get ready to pinkify Arizona as well.

Yep, looks like you can go ahead and fill in Arizona. The AG says the state will not appeal and has instructed county clerks to begin issuing marriage licenses ASAP.

[pbrower2a]

Get ready to pinkify Arizona as well.

More precisely, magenta. Pink does not show up well, and lavender is practically invisible.

This is definitive -- from the decision itself:

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I call it now. There will be no stay.


Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 17 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 9 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

When you exclude pending appeals (that will inevitably fail), areas where the overturn has occurred but is pending (FL & WY), and states in districts where the bans have been ruled unconstitutional but the states have not yet been forced to recognize it (SC, KS, MT), there are only 10 states left to fall, which comprise barely 15% of the US population.

Imagine that.

Damn, MO, hurry up so we can have contiguous coast-to-coast SSM coverage!

[politicallefty]

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

Actually, that would be the Sixth Circuit. But yes, you're absolutely right. All four of those states are locked together. If it rules for marriage equality, it will be legal in all four of those states. If it upholds the bans, you can surely expect the Supreme Court to take it up. I'm starting to really wonder if SCOTUS will ever make a definitive ruling on the issue. Any circuit court that upholds a gay marriage ban at this point could very easily face summary reversal.

[SteveRogers]

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

Actually, that would be the Sixth Circuit. But yes, you're absolutely right. All four of those states are locked together. If it rules for marriage equality, it will be legal in all four of those states. If it upholds the bans, you can surely expect the Supreme Court to take it up. I'm starting to really wonder if SCOTUS will ever make a definitive ruling on the issue. Any circuit court that upholds a gay marriage ban at this point could very easily face summary reversal.

It's no longer beyond the realm of possibility that every circuit court might rule in favor of gay marriage, thereby preventing the Supreme Court from ever having to hear the issue. If I were Kennedy, I'd be kind of bummed if I never got to write that big decision that I'd clearly been building up to all these years.

[tpfkaw]

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

Actually, that would be the Sixth Circuit. But yes, you're absolutely right. All four of those states are locked together. If it rules for marriage equality, it will be legal in all four of those states. If it upholds the bans, you can surely expect the Supreme Court to take it up. I'm starting to really wonder if SCOTUS will ever make a definitive ruling on the issue. Any circuit court that upholds a gay marriage ban at this point could very easily face summary reversal.

It's no longer beyond the realm of possibility that every circuit court might rule in favor of gay marriage, thereby preventing the Supreme Court from ever having to hear the issue. If I were Kennedy, I'd be kind of bummed if I never got to write that big decision that I'd clearly been building up to all these years.

Well, that's part of why the Court hasn't taken the cases IMO; Kennedy wants Windsor to be that decision because he doesn't want it to be assigned to one of the other justices.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

pbrower make your map like Griffin said.

Pending appeals
Overturned, but pending (Like Wyoming right now.)
Ruled by district, but not forced

Instead of states, here's the most populated cities without SSM, since big cities are all about gay PDF.

1. Houston, Texas
2. San Antonio, Texas
3. Dallas, Texas
4. Jacksonville, Florida
5. Columbus, Ohio
6. Fort Worth, Texas
7. Detroit, Michigan
8. El Paso, Texas
9. Memphis, Tennessee
10. Nashville, Tennessee

In total, 110 of the 294 cities with over 100 thousand people are SSM-free, less than half.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Sorry for the double post, but could you go ahead and paint Wyoming white? It's coming this week.

[pbrower2a]

Sorry for the double post, but could you go ahead and paint Wyoming white? It's coming this week.

When the relevant official in Wyoming says that there will be no appeal or that the relevant judge says that there will be no stay allowed -- or nobody files a stay by 8PM, October 23. I did not see text for the Wyoming case as I did for Arizona.

I have been burned before in assuming that the decision of the Circuit Court is final.

Just think -- Michigan could be next! 

Some of the stays are nothing more than stalling techniques for which the US Supreme Court so far shows little tolerance. 

We are creating a historical document, a play-by-play of and I want my part in its creation to be accurate. It is not my desire to anticipate decisions of courts of law or (were there any) any initiative or referendum. Who knows -- there could be some legislative efforts either to hasten the process or to attempt to shore up an existing anti-SSM law, or even seek a statewide outlawry of SSM. 

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

http://www.wyomingnews.com/articles/2014/10/18/news/01top_10-18-14.txt#.VERybxdOnmI

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[user12345]

When you exclude pending appeals (that will inevitably fail), areas where the overturn has occurred but is pending (FL & WY), and states in districts where the bans have been ruled unconstitutional but the states have not yet been forced to recognize it (SC, KS, MT), there are only 10 states left to fall, which comprise barely 15% of the US population.

Imagine that.

Damn, MO, hurry up so we can have contiguous coast-to-coast SSM coverage!

We do recognize them.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.wyomingnews.com/articles/2014/10/18/news/01top_10-18-14.txt#.VERybxdOnmI

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wyomingnews.com/articles/2014/10/18/news/01top_10-18-14.txt#.VERybxdOnmI

I am satisfied. 32 states and DC.  

Recent YouGov map with appropriate modifications as of 6PM EST, 18 October 2014:

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM was not permanently legalized as of 2 PM EST on 18 October 2014:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit*
8th circuit
9th circuit*
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Now let's bring the hammer down on the South. First target: Alabama.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Now let's bring the hammer down on the South. First target: Alabama.

Better yet, force South Carolina to do it. While we're at it, force Kansas too.

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS.