Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Ebowed]

"Love is love" is a very broad statement. That statement can apply to anything.

Gee, I guess that's what context is for.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

No new polls lately?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No new polls lately?

Given the general expectation of how SCOTUS is likely to rule, there's not much point.

[pbrower2a]

Support for same-sex marriage has reached an all-time high, according to recent polls. A new survey from Gallup shows a record 60 percent of Americans now say they approve of legalized same-sex marriage.

The trend measured by Gallup closely matches results from other polls that have been measuring public opinion on same-sex marriage. An ABC/Washington Post poll conducted in April found that 61 percent of Americans approve. Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same month measured approval at 58 percent.






http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/20/support-for-same-sex-marriage-_n_7342790.html

..........

I'm guessing that even if the US Supreme Court denies the legalization of same-sex marriage in Michigan and Ohio, a referendum allowing same-sex marriage would pass in either state if the State Legislature would do the right thing.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Pennsylvania:

-A little more than a year after gay marriage became legal in Pennsylvania, PPP finds it with a record level of support in the state. 51% of voters say they favor it, compared to only 41% who are opposed. That represents a 26 point net increase in support since just 2011 when we found only 36% of voters in support of it and 52% opposed. Among independents the numbers are 59/31 in support of gay marriage, and among voters under 45 there's 66/29 support. The only thing making the numbers remotely close overall is continued 34/56 opposition among seniors.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/pennsylvania-miscellany.html#more

[Miles]

PPP in NC: 44% support, 46% againt. They say its the highest support SSM has ever got in NC in their polls.

59% of Dems/Indies for it, only 17% of Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

A majority 65 percent of Americans expect the Supreme Court to rule in favor of same-sex marriage for couples in all 50 states, according to a Public Research Religion Institute (PRRI) poll released Thursday. Just one-quarter of Americans believe the court will not overturn the state bans on same-sex marriage.

The agreement bridges party divides as well. Seventy-one percent of Democrats, 67 percent of independents and 58 percent of Republicans foresee a ruling in favor of same-sex marriage.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/11/supreme-court-marriage-equality_n_7561406.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Given that it's June 16th, the court should rule soon and the whole map will be painted white.

[pbrower2a]

I almost never predict rulings by any court of law. The preponderance of Circuit Court rulings on SSM  causes me to believe that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of same-sex marriage. Uniformity of law on basic human rights is the norm and not the exception in federal rulings beginning with Brown vs. Board of Education.    

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I almost never predict rulings by any court of law.

Unless a justice suddenly dies before the decision is finalized, the only real question after Windsor is if SCOTUS will require States to directly recognize SSM or will be content to settle for indirect recognition via being married in another State that does directly recognize SSM. Even the latter would be a surprise, but I fear Kennedy might go for such a moderate heroic decision despite the harm it does to federalism.

[pbrower2a]

Human rights get standardized. States have more prerogatives on such economic matters as taxes. Thus Texas can have brutal sales taxes and no income tax and Oregon can have no state sales taxes but brutal income taxes. States may have different penalties for the same crime, and may have different labor laws.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

It's already June 22, when will it happen??

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's already June 22, when will it happen??

Either June 25 or June 29 unless they add additional days to their calendar.  Most likely June 29, but I wouldn't be surprised of it were June 25 or July 2.

[pbrower2a]

The Supreme Court is in session.  It has made some ruling, but not on SSM -- yet.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Supreme Court is in session.  It has made some ruling, but not on SSM -- yet.

No it isn't in session right now.  It has added June 26 as another day to announce opinions.  June 26 is the two-year anniversary of the Windsor decision.

[The Mikado]

The first post-court case polls will be fascinating.

[pbrower2a]

As I read the decision of the US Supreme Court re Obergfell v. Hodges, the decision of the Sixth Circuit Court is invalidated. SSM is thus legal in Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee.

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM will not have been permanently legalized as of 10 AM EST on 26 June 2015:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

5th circuit
8th circuit
11th circuit



Colors for districts have no other political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 10th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9









[/quote]

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think it's time for a more ceremonial all-white map.

[pbrower2a]

A cautionary note from the Houston Chronicle:

(pardon the citation because much of this is statements by public officials to a newspaper)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...I would like to believe that Obergfell v. Hodges settles the question of whether same-sex marriage is permitted in all states. Some judge, county clerk, or other low-level official will surely refuse to issue a marriage license for a same-sex couple in an effort to sabotage the ruling. I expect a definitive statement by the US Supreme Court that the ruling applies to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Let alone the Neanderthal judge in Alabama.

I congratulate Utah for a reasonable and workable compromise: persons who believe that issuing a license for same-sex marriage would violate their religious beliefs can refuse to do so personally but must refer the job to someone who will do so.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2015/06/26/georgia-democrats-celebrate-same-sex-marriage-ruling/

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM will not have been permanently legalized as of 10 AM EST on 26 June 2015:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

5th circuit
8th circuit




Colors for districts have no other political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, and 11th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's essentially done now, save perhaps for some clerk of court office door stands.  Unstickying.

[JerryArkansas]

Pbrower, I can tell you that both North Dakota and Arkansas will follow the Supreme Court.  Can give source if necessary.  So both can be white.

[pbrower2a]

Pbrower, I can tell you that both North Dakota and Arkansas will follow the Supreme Court.  Can give source if necessary.  So both can be white.

I am checking other states. That's how I got the news on Georgia and Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska, too, recognizes Obergfell v. Hodges decisive.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/douglas-lancaster-counties-begin-issuing-same-sex-marriage-licenses/article_74f43388-1ab6-11e5-987c

Likewise, South Dakota:

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — A U.S. Supreme Court opinion that declared same-sex marriage legal nationwide is effective in South Dakota immediately and it's up to each county in the state to begin issuing marriage licenses, the state attorney general said Friday.

Attorney General Marty Jackley said counties can begin issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples as soon as they are able, but acknowledged issues like the size of a county and the number applications could delay the process.

"We are saying it's effective immediately but with that recognition that we will work with local jurisdictions to provide a reasonable period of time to implement a fairly significant rule and change in law," Jackley said.

http://siouxcityjournal.com/ap/state/jackley-up-to-counties-to-issue-gay-marriage-licenses/article_2aa994ca-28cc-57cc-85d7-8359e9a17ec9.html

White -- SSM equality by law.
Yellow -- toss-up

 

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district in those in which SSM will not have been permanently legalized as of 10 AM EST on 26 June 2015:

Status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, or the Northern Marianas not shown.

5th circuit
8th circuit




Colors for districts have no other political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, and 11th appellate districts have legalized SSM.


Here are the numbers:

Compiled results are listed below. The headers for each column are: State/ Support Legalising Gay Marriage/ Oppose Legalising Gay Marriage/ Net Support.

MA    71    19    +52
VT    71    20    +51
RI    68    20    +48
NH    63    24    +39
CT    61    26    +35
NY    61    27    +34
HI    59    26    +33
CA    58    31    +27
ME    63    37    +26
NM    57    32    +25
WA    57    32    +25
NV    55    31    +24
DE    54    31    +23
NJ    54    32    +22
OR    56    35    +21
IA    53    33    +20
IL    53    33    +20
CO    54    35    +19
MN    52    34    +18
AK    50    36    +14
WI    51    37    +14
MD    48    36    +12
PA    49    38    +11
ND    48    39    +9
MI    47    39    +8
AZ    47    40    +7
VA    47    40    +7
FL    46    40    +6
OH    45    40    +5
MT    45    41    +4
KS    44    41    +3
SD    43    43    0
IN    43    45    -2
NC    42    46    -4
MO    41    47    -6
NE    40    46    -6
LA    39    46    -7
WV    39    48    -9
GA    37    47    -10
SC    37    47    -10
KY    38    50    -12
TX    37    50    -13
OK    37    51    -14
WY    33    50    -17
ID    33    51    -18
AR    32    54    -22
UT    34    56    -22
MS    29    56    -27
TN    29    58    -29
AL    28    60    -32

US    48    39    +9

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Wait, it's not legal in all 50 states?