Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PPP - ID

Same Sex Marriage?

No - 57%
Yes - 38%

Opinion on recognition?

Full Marriage - 39%
Civil Unions - 30%
No legal recognition - 29%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_ID_1014925.pdf

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We need to get the south. Let's go after Florida and Texas, since they have the most people.

The stay on the Florida ruling expires on Jan 5th, so you're in luck there. Texas...not so much. I'll be very surprised if the conservative 5th circuit rules in favor of gay marriage.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That poll is okay in some places, but I highly doubt that the ID, NE, KS, AZ, IN, MO, TX, ND, and OK numbers are correct.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

@pbrower:  If you're trying to divide that poll into legal ssm/ssm illegal states, note that ND is in the 'illegal' group.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

THIS DAY IN HISTORY:

On this day 11 years President George W. Bush announced his support for an Amendment to the Constitution of the United States to ban Same Sex Marriage.

So, how's that goin'? 

The Republicans were too stupid to realize that if they really wanted to pass something like that, they needed to do it in the 1990's. In 2004, SSM probably already had majority approval among democrats (even though it wasn't the litmus test for admission into the party that it is today (outside of the south)), and some republicans were beginning to accept state's rights on the issue.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/nebraska-gay-marriage_n_6783464.html?utm_hp_ref=gay-voices&ir=Gay%20Voices

There will be an appeal by the Attorney General of Nebraska. He is confident that the Eighth Circuit will uphold the appeal. In view of the record of such appeals, he must be an extreme optimist about the federal courts upholding such an appeal.

The 8th circuit has previously approved NE's same sex marriage ban, but that was back in 2006. The circuit will probably stay the decision, just as they have done for Missouri (where same sex marriage is only legal in 3 counties as of now) and Arkansas. However, if they get a chance to actually rule on the case between now and June, no guarantee they won't break their own precedent given the recent record of other courts.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just wondering since I'm unclear about this, but is the official case name at the Supreme Court going to be the same as its original name (DeBoer v. Snyder)? Or is it going to be like U.S. v. DeBoer, Michigan v. DeBoer, or something else entirely? With this most likely being the case that nationally legalizes same sex marriage, the name is probably going to be important.

Because the 6th circuit ruled in Snyder's favor, the names will likely switch around to be Snyder vs. DeBoer.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

THIS DAY IN HISTORY:

On this day 11 years President George W. Bush announced his support for an Amendment to the Constitution of the United States to ban Same Sex Marriage.

So, how's that goin'? 

More likely than not Bush supports SSM today.

What's the evidence for that? Besides his father's possible endorsement of it (H.W. has served as witness to 1 gay wedding, but, to the public's knowledge, has never outright said "I support Same Sex Marriage".), I honestly don't know of anything. I could see W. Bush endorsing state's rights on the issue nowadays, seeing as even Ted Cruz supports that, but W. Bush actually supporting federal legislation allowing SSM? That'd really surprise me.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

THIS DAY IN HISTORY:

On this day 11 years President George W. Bush announced his support for an Amendment to the Constitution of the United States to ban Same Sex Marriage.

So, how's that goin'? 

More likely than not Bush supports SSM today.

What's the evidence for that? Besides his father's possible endorsement of it (H.W. has served as witness to 1 gay wedding, but, to the public's knowledge, has never outright said "I support Same Sex Marriage".), I honestly don't know of anything. I could see W. Bush endorsing state's rights on the issue nowadays, seeing as even Ted Cruz supports that, but W. Bush actually supporting federal legislation allowing SSM? That'd really surprise me.

Bush said he supported Civil Unions after his presidency. (Of course, nobody supports Civil Unions anymore). His dad(as you mentioned), wife, and daughters, and former VP all support SSM. It's been 11 years since he said that, and now SSM is legal in almost 40 states. Bush refuses to express his opinion, but with all of those factors, it's safe to say that, more likely than not, he supports it, and if so, not openly.

This idea that everyone either supports full marriage or nothing at all is ridiculous. First off, PPP has consistently found that in the South, a significant proportion of those who oppose SSM do support Civil Unions (I can find examples if you like). Also, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich both voiced support for some form of domestic partnerships during the 2012 primaries (I can find the quotes if you like), and they obviously don't support SSM now.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8th circuit issues a stay on the ruling against Nebraska’s ban!
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/06/us/nebraska-same-sex-marriage/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So that's 38 states, DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam all have SSM in some way, shape, or form.

Puerto Rico doesn't have it yet, the first circuit has to get around to officially overturning the district court ruling upholding the ban.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Keep in mind that you can't actually get a gay marriage in Alabama at the moment. But if you were lucky enough to get one before the counties united in defiance of the district court ruling, then that union is still recognized. And if you're distinguishing 'local option' now, KS should also be included there, as a few rural counties don't issue licenses, and the state makes no attempt to force them to do so.