Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/colorado-favors-gay-marriage.html#more

[pbrower2a]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013

This pollster said that Arizona was in play late in the 2012 campaign. Beware!

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Glengariff/Detroit News

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From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130514/POLITICS02/305140459#ixzz2TNiEf7i4

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 

[pbrower2a]

Back to AZ and CO --

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Recognizing states in which same-sex marriage is legal--

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


 

[pbrower2a]

NJ, CA, KS, IL

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


 

[pbrower2a]

from February:

North Carolina (PPP)

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in North Carolina, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 38%
It should not .................................................... 54%
Not sure  9%

Alaska (PPP)

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Alaska, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 43%
It should not .................................................... 51%
Not sure  6%

and an obscure university poll from Virginia late in March (46-47 split)

I am not going back to January or earlier.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

The current state legislature owes too much to the Religious Right to act upon a pro-gay sentiment of any kind. If Michigan voters turn on the Republican-dominated state legislature and vote out a now-unpopular Governor  in 2014, a Democratic Governor and State legislature could either enact same-sex marriage or offer it in a referendum on the pretext of economic necessity. It would be good for Michigan business, including tourism.

But so long as the GOP-dominated legislature can get away with legislating as if Michigan were Oklahoma, same-sex marriage and any assertion of rights of homosexuals is out of the question. Count on Republicans stirring up anti-gay sentiment in 2014.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/virginians-changing-views-of-gay-marriage/2013/05/14/883b5f14-bd0e-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_graphic.html

Capital Insights/Washington Post -- Virginia.

"Should it be legal or  illegal for gay couples to get married?"

56% legal, 33% illegal

A similar response in 2011 was 46% in favor, 43% opposed.

I was not going back to January or earlier, but there are few polls to that effect from January. This thread does not go back that far. The Kansas poll is technically of civil unions, but the language all but recognizes the right of same-sex marriage. Still, it does not say marriage. To be sure the WaPo poll in Virginia says nothing about lesbians getting married, but close enough.

Republican state legislators are out of touch with voters in Virginia as in Michigan. I see a rapid shift in attitudes in Virginia. At the very time in which Americans are getting more intolerant of spousal abuse and especially child sexual abuse (I strongly endorse this trend) they increasingly accept of homosexuality. 

If I am a Republican activist, I recognize the futility of exploiting anti-homophobic sentiment in political campaigns except in the Deep and Mountain South, and I wouldn't trust even the LDS hierarchy in Arizona, Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming. The LDS hierarchy can always have some 'revelation' that homosexuality is less a personal choice than is drinking coffee or using cancerweed products. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Quiet for three weeks here?

[pbrower2a]

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I endorse the change in the color choices.

[pbrower2a]

I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

The 2012 election is as far back as we need go.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

I'm not saying that the polls for Missouri or Nebraska are inaccurate, but the 2012 election is as far back as we dare go. Same-sex marriage was basically shelved during the 2012 election. Afterwards -- Indiana polls are rare enough that I would go back to December of last year.   

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/texas-miscellany.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/new-poll-finds-majority-of-virginians-support-same-sex-marriage/article_0d85e198-244f-5b21-9536-5a2a38624d43.html

It's probably correct, but I would reject this poll because it is released by an advocacy group that has LGBT rights as a core of its agenda.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Has Virginia become the new New Hampshire!?

It could be. Virginia has been out of step with the rest of the South for a very long time. It went for Herbert Hoover in 1928. It went for Eisenhower twice. It was the only former Confederate state to vote for Ford in 1976 and never went for Clinton.

It went for Dubya by 8% in 2000 and 2004 -- showing some slight D drift.

Virginia has been attracting hordes of Yankees who bring their political attitudes with them. A couple years ago PPP asked people what their favorite team was  (at least before the Nationals moved in from Montreal).... and many of the responses were "Yankees", "Mets", "Phillies", "Red Sox", and "Cubs". (There seem to be lots of Tiger fans, too). The sports fans show where they are from.

Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and probably any Tiger, Giant, and Dodger fans reflect the places that they are from, and those people on the whole are liberals. (Oriole fans are somewhat local, and southwest Georgia is split between Reds and Braves fans. Cincinnati and Atlanta are relatively liberal, but their extended areas of fan support are decidedly conservative. 

Virginia has shown the pattern of Northern states.       

[pbrower2a]

Updated to include Florida poll.

Less than 1% difference is effectively a tie, which applies to polls with fractional differences. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

-Georgia voters are still strongly opposed to gay marriage- only 32% support it with 60% against. But even there you can see the wheels turning- last year we found 27% of voters in the state supportive and 65% opposed. Voters under 30 support it by a 56/31 marriage. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Court decision, New Mexico.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[/quote]

At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

Congratulations to Indiana!  None for West Virginia, though.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_925.pdf

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.

[pbrower2a]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to  heated  gubernatorial and Senate races.

Social conservatism in America relates closely to Christian fundamentalism and eveangelicalism except among Mormons.   

[pbrower2a]

If the legalization of gay marriage were on this year’s ballot, would you vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage or against it?

55% You would vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage
38% Against
9% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)