Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Missouri's numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_09161118.pdf

The show-me state has shown us that they're not a bellwether.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, despite that 11 point advantage in California, it sounds like there might not be a Proposition to legalize it next year. That's too bad, it would be hilarious to hear about "those activist voters legislating from the ballot box"

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The social conservative butthurt on this issue is hilarious. I only wish we had more issues like this to piss them off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/first-time-majority-americans-favor-legal-gay-marriage.aspx

Obama has been several points less popular than gay marriage for months now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta. 

California, at the ballot box.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PPP

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Interesting, indeed.

I love PPP.

I wonder how Nevada Republicans feel about homosexual brothels.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maybe there's still some hope left for the otherwise progressive Minnesota ...

(But for it to pass, gay marriage would probably have to lead by 5-10 in the pre election polls, because of the "Gay Bradley Effect")

Unlike California, Minnesota requires 50% of all ballots vote for an amendment for it to pass. 2.48% of Californians abstained on Prop. 8.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's definitely getting more popular. Bloomberg announced a new PAC to support moderates. One of the requirements for being a moderate is support of SSM.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

We just have to win one of these to get the ball rolling...please Washington save the skin of decency, man.

There's a decent chance WA, MD, and ME will be legalizing gay marriage tomorrow. MN could go either way, but whatever, either way there's no gay marriage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In 2008 there were 2,920,214 votes cast in Minnesota. There were 2,776,561 votes cast "Yes" or "No" for the Constitutional amendment, so almost 5% of voters left it blank. Based on those numbers the "Yes" side would need around 52.6% of the votes of those cast for it to pass it so 47-48 "No" might be enough to kill it. Admittedly the 2008 vote was on a far less hot button issue, but even with half the blanks it still needs over 51%.

2.48% abstained on Prop. 8. We don't have that rule, so it still only needed 50%, but it did get a majority of all those whose voted in that election. So yeah, 51.0% would fail if it has the same number of abstentions.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.

It's certainly more likely than the legislative method.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NM like RI and NY used to has no law against gay marriage. I think NJ might be in that category, too. But generally people have argued that you need to explicitly legalize gay marriage to grant licenses. However they can quietly recognize out of state gay marriages, so they have a slight advantage over the 6 states that have just a statute ban (HI, WY, IL, IN, PA, WV).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

Are there ever primary challenges from the left in Hawaii? Because they sure need some.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Man, even if you look at Obama's massive underperformance in Arkansas n 2012, gay marriage has a much more extreme SSM PVI than Obama PVI.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Man, even if you look at Obama's massive underperformance in Arkansas n 2012, gay marriage has a much more extreme SSM PVI than Obama PVI.

Funny timing for my comment. And the Arkansas voters can't stop their elected judges from going with the 27%.