Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[SteveRogers]

So if SCOTUS says that they're not taking any marriage cases this week, where, if anywhere, would that legalize gay marriage?

It looks like SCOTUS will discuss all of the petitions from the 4th, 7th,  and 10th Circuits at its conference this week. If they deny cert in all cases, then same-sex marriage will immediately become legal in Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Indiana. It should also automatically become legal in Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina since those states will be subject to the precedent in their respective circuits, but one or more of them could try to fight on by arguing that the circuit court's order doesn't apply to them. They won't win.

[SteveRogers]

Colorado has also legalized as of today.

[SteveRogers]

Get ready to pinkify Arizona as well.

Yep, looks like you can go ahead and fill in Arizona. The AG says the state will not appeal and has instructed county clerks to begin issuing marriage licenses ASAP.

[SteveRogers]

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

Actually, that would be the Sixth Circuit. But yes, you're absolutely right. All four of those states are locked together. If it rules for marriage equality, it will be legal in all four of those states. If it upholds the bans, you can surely expect the Supreme Court to take it up. I'm starting to really wonder if SCOTUS will ever make a definitive ruling on the issue. Any circuit court that upholds a gay marriage ban at this point could very easily face summary reversal.

It's no longer beyond the realm of possibility that every circuit court might rule in favor of gay marriage, thereby preventing the Supreme Court from ever having to hear the issue. If I were Kennedy, I'd be kind of bummed if I never got to write that big decision that I'd clearly been building up to all these years.

[SteveRogers]

Can someone add Puerto Rico to the map?

Don't add it to the map until people actually start marrying. Technically the district judge's ruling upholding the state's ban is still in effect until the first circuit reverses that decision.

[SteveRogers]

Can someone add Puerto Rico to the map?

Don't add it to the map until people actually start marrying. Technically the district judge's ruling upholding the state's ban is still in effect until the first circuit reverses that decision.

I'm talking about adding the image of Puerto Rico to the map for SSM rights. This map has nothing to do with elections.

Oh, gotcha. I just meant don't color it in on the map yet. I forgot that it literally wasn't on the map.