Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[greenforest32]

Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

[greenforest32]

Awesome CO numbers for marijuana legalization. Nevada has them beat on prostitution though.

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

Looks like gay marriage is going to come in from the coasts.

I'm calling it:

There will be a court ruling out in favor of gay marriage no later than 2025.

Once stuff like this gains momentum it seldom takes more than 20 years.

Before 2025? Try before 2015. There's already a federal case: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_v._Schwarzenegger

[greenforest32]

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

[greenforest32]

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.

That is a good idea. I think you have most of those types of polls covered but I'll post a reply in one of these threads if I catch a new one.

P.S. - Nice work on it. I love state by state maps for anything (gay marriage, governor opinion polling, etc)

[greenforest32]

3 more PPP polls about Gay Marriage out today.

Wisconsin: 39% legal, 50% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0826.pdf

Iowa: 46% legal, 45% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

Ohio: 33% legal, 53% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0826.pdf

Map:

I thought Wisconsin and Ohio would be better than that. Not even 40% support? Boo. I have a feeling Illinois is going to be more like Iowa/Minnesota and Indiana is more like Wisconsin/Ohio.

[greenforest32]

Kentucky doesn't like the gays either, but we already knew that before:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 26%
Illegal .............................................................. 62%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_08311118.pdf

Damn 62% opposed. That's Utah territory.

PA now in favor of gay marriage, says F&M:

CU1. The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil
unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow
homosexual couples to get legally married?

50% Support
42% Oppose

CU2. Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally
form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

62% Support
34% Oppose

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug11_1.pdf

Didn't expect that at all. I am skeptical...

[greenforest32]

New Jersey (Rutgers):

Support Gay Marriage 52%
Oppose Gay Marriage 32%

Support Civil Union alternative 58%
Oppose Civil Union alternative 26%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_08-31-11.pdf

Damn the Northeast is on fire! I think the Southwest (minus Utah) and the Midwest is going to follow the Northeast and the West Coast soon. Last will be the Southeast. SCOTUS will probably legalize it before they hit majority support.

[greenforest32]

Damn the Northeast is on fire!

They are flaming, aren't they?

Fire spreads my friend.

[greenforest32]

PPP is out with the NC poll on gays and the state is very "special":

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

Interesting. I believe they'd vote against the ban because it's marriage+civil unions/domestic partnerships. It'd probably pass if it just banned marriage.

[greenforest32]

PPP is out with the SC poll on gay marriage:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 21%
Illegal .............................................................. 69%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0907.pdf

Damn, are these the worst numbers we've seen so far?

[greenforest32]

Move over SC, there's a new #1 state in town: West Virginia!

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 19%
Illegal .............................................................. 71%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0915.pdf

[greenforest32]

Missouri's numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_09161118.pdf

[greenforest32]

Texas numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 29%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0923424.pdf

[greenforest32]

Nice! Massachusetts is the first state to hit 60% support:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 60%
Illegal .............................................................. 30%
Not sure ........................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_0923.pdf

[greenforest32]

New Iowa numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure ........................................................... 11%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment that says the following: “Marriage
between one man and one woman shall be the
only legal union valid or recognized in this
state"?

Would vote for it..............................................  50%
Would vote against it ......................................  43%
Not sure ..........................................................   8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1014.pdf

Also first numbers for Nebraska are out. Not as bad as I was expecting :

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 54%
Not sure ........................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1013.pdf

[greenforest32]

Hawaii numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 49%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure ........................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HI_10201.pdf

[greenforest32]

New numbers out for Maine. An improvement compared to 47% support, 46% oppose, 8% not sure from March 2011:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure ........................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1102424.pdf

[greenforest32]

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/11/11/st-cloud-state-marriage-poll-split/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol religion:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

Yeah it definitely stood out.

Any bets on PPP's upcoming numbers for Arizona? Think Arizona will be ahead or behind Pennsylvania? I'm thinking it will be pretty close.

Also it looks like Oregon won't be having that gay marriage ballot measure in 2012: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/basic_rights_oregon_will_not_p.html The organization called it off citing bad/notgoodenough poll numbers. It's definitely a done deal in 2016 but they may attempt it in 2014.

[greenforest32]

Arizona numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1130424.pdf

Not bad...

[greenforest32]

The social conservative butthurt on this issue is hilarious. I only wish we had more issues like this to piss them off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147662/first-time-majority-americans-favor-legal-gay-marriage.aspx

[greenforest32]

So either Gallup is wrong, PPP is wrong, or something else is going on.

It could be a combination of things. First, you're comparing one state poll out of a whole series (most of which are not as lopsided as PA) to a long series of polls by Gallup. It would be perfectly kosher to say, hey, PPP's one poll of PA is wrong.

Beyond that, the difference could come down to question structure. Also, PA has one of the highest median ages in the country.

I think another thing that might contribute to the difference is polls of adults in general vs polls of registered voters.

A huge chunk of eligible voters (over 20% at least) aren't even registered to vote: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

[greenforest32]

Montana: 37-51 against

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/montana-miscellaneous-poll.html

Damn look at the age cross-tab:

18-45 (I assume they meant 18-29) 69% legal, 24% illegal, 6% not sure
30-45: 40% legal, 49% illegal, 11% not sure
45-65: 34% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
>65: 26% legal, 61% illegal, 13% not sure

It's only a matter of time Montana!

I want to see Idaho's numbers now

[greenforest32]

North Carolina still hatin:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 30%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State? (Asked of 688 likely primary voters)

Would vote for it - 57%
Would vote against it - 32%
Not sure - 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_12091118.pdf

[greenforest32]

New Colorado numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_12091205.pdf

An improvement compared to 45% legal, 45% illegal, 10% not sure from August 2011.

That's a big shift for 4 months.