2012: The Fight for Liberty!

[Jayhawker]

September 3rd, 2011:

Sarah Palin holds a rally in Iowa, where she announces her decision:

I will not be a candidate for President of the United States. I've been honored and thankful for the amount of support and encouragement I've received from Americans of many walks of life over the past few months. However, this was a family decision, and as a whole, we say "No" to 2012. However, I will continue my fight for liberty in the coming months and do my part to make sure the Republican Party elects a true conservative in 2012!

Polling:
Rasmussen - National

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable - 38%
Unfavorable - 55%
Neutral - 7%

[Jayhawker]

Double Trouble in New York

On September 4th, Rudy Giuliani, who had floated the possibility or running for President multiple times, makes headlines when he declares on Meet the Press that he will be a candidate for President. However, things got even crazier in New York when just two days later, former New York Governor George Pataki also declared that he'd be seeking the Republican nomination.

With both New Yorkers running, the GOP field becomes further split. In a race that originally had just two moderates, it now turned to four with Romney, Huntsman, Giuliani, and Pataki.

Polling:
Gallup - National Republican Primary
19% Perry
17% Romney
11% Paul
10% Giuliani
 9% Bachmann
 8% Gingrich
 6% Cain
 5% Pataki
 4% Santorum
 2% Huntsman
 5% Others
 4% Undecided

[ChairmanSanchez]

Pataki leads Huntsman at least!

[Jayhawker]

Perry Under Fire For Racist Comments

Texas Governor Rick Perry is currently under fire after making what many are saying a racist comment on September 9th at an event in Iowa, making statements he apparently thought were off the record. The comments were made by the Governor as he was exiting the venue.

Last month, we saw the President vacationing in the midst of an economic crisis. This week, we see the President having more golf outings...while we're still in an economic crisis. We talked a bit tonight about welfare reform...well, President Obama has proved exactly what's wrong with many of his people that are getting our tax dollars.
- Rick Perry

Perry is immediately attacked by both Republicans and Democrats for the comment. The following day, Perry issues a press release apologizing to those he may have offended.

It was simply an inappropriate thing to say.
- Rick Perry

Polling:
PPP - Iowa Republican Primary
Bachmann - 15%
Romney - 14%
Perry - 14%
Paul - 12%
Santorum - 8%
Cain - 6%
Giuliani - 5%
Gingrich - 3%
Pataki - 2%
Huntsman - 0%

Iowa Republicans are still pretty unsure as to who they want as their nominee, with a high percentage of undecideds. This month we see Bachmann reclaim the lead, with Romney polling in second. Paul continues to hold his own in Iowa only trailing by 3 points. At this point, Huntsman's campaign is non-existent in Iowa.

PPP - New Hampshire Republican Primary
Romney - 31%
Giuliani - 15%
Perry - 10%
Paul - 8%
Pataki - 7%
Bachmann - 7%
Cain - 5%
Huntsman - 4%
Gingrich - 3%
Santorum - 2%

Romney continues to have a large lead over his Republican rivals, with Giulani debuting in second place. New Hampshire is a must-win state for Romney, Giulani, Pataki, and Huntsman. Whichever of these moderates comes away with a win will likely absorb much of the other three's support. Huntsman has been campaigning like crazy in New Hampshire for the past few weeks, yet still only comes in at 4%.

[Jayhawker]

Haha, I can say I called this early.

Will try and make an update soon.

[CathKhan]

Haha, I can say I called this early.

Will try and make an update soon.

Yay!

[Jerseyrules]

Yay!

[Jerseyrules]

Very interesting....More please

[Jayhawker]

September 6th, 2011: John Bolton, former UN Ambassador, announces that he will not be a candidate for President in 2008 and in turn endorses Mitt Romney.

September 22nd, 2011: Michigan Representative Thad McCotter announces that he will be suspending his campaign. He endorses Mitt Romney.

That evening, a GOP Debate was held in Orlando, Florida. In the debate, Santorum condemned his opponents for running a negative race, and spends the night bashing President Obama.

This man is a threat to our nation's future - Our nation cannot afford 4 more years of Barack Obama, and I am the only candidate on this stage who can make sure he doesn't get that 2nd term!
- Rock Santorum

September 26th, 2011: A straw poll is conducted in Florida, and following a strong debate performance, Rick Santorum wins by a handy margin.

Results:
Rick Santorum - 32%
Rick Perry - 14%
Rudy Giuliani - 11
Ron Paul - 10%
Mitt Romney - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 8%
Herman Cain - 5%
Michele Bachmann - 5%
George Pataki - 3%
Jon Huntsman - 2%

Polling:
Washington Post - National
Romney - 19%
Santorum - 17%
Perry - 15%
Giuliani - 12%
Paul - 10%
Bachmann - 7%
Gingrich - 5%
Cain - 3%
Pataki - 3%
Huntsman - 2%

Insider Advantage - Florida
Mitt Romney - 24%
Rick Santorum - 20%
Rudy Giuliani - 18%

[ChairmanSanchez]

Its back! With Santorum in Cains place.

[Jerseyrules]

Its back! With Santorum in Cains place.

Cain for senator!  Or VP....

[Jayhawker]

October 2nd, 2011: Speaking on Meet The Press, Mayor Michael Bloomberg leaves the door open to a third party run in 2012.

You know, a lot can happen in the next few months, so I'm not going to rule anything out. Everything is on the table.
- Michael Bloomberg

Gallup - National Head-to-Head
Romney - 43%
Obama - 39%
Bloomberg - 12%

Obama - 40%
Santorum - 38%
Bloomberg - 15%

Obama - 42%
Perry - 39%
Bloomberg - 13%

[Jerseyrules]

Paul / Bloomberg 2012?

[Jayhawker]

Early October, 2011: Both Chris Christie and Sarah Palin announce they will not seek the GOP nomination. Christie endorses Romney, while Palin says she will wait and decide.

October 18th, 2011: Republicans debate on CNN in Las Vegas, Nevada, with Santorum and Romney center-stage.

The question remains, which Mitt is running in 2012? The 1994 Mitt that supported abortion and said he'd be to the left of Ted Kennedy on gay rights? Or the "Massachusetts Moderate" from 2002 who once again campaigned on a pro-choice platform? Who knows, maybe we'll get the 2008 Romney that campaigned as a very conservative guy. America needs a President who's stable in their beliefs, not one who will do whatever flip-flop it takes to get into the White House.
- Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum, you're wrong on foreign policy, and you're a hypocrite on government spending. You're lying to the American people by saying you're going to cut spending, just look at your record! You've bragged about passing earmarks!
- Ron Paul

Debate pundits agreed that it was a good night for Ron Paul, who largely went on the offensive against Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich stumbled, especially when asked about his Moon colonization projects.

October 22nd, 2011: After failing to gain traction, Herman Cain withdraws from the Republican race, but vows to continue on his fight to get "9-9-9" into law.

November 5th, 2011: The Sioux Falls Straw Poll is held.

Results (Top 3):
Rick Santorum: 30%
Mitt Romney: 24%
Ron Paul: 20%

Polling:
National
Santorum - 21%
Romney - 18%
Perry - 13%
Paul - 12%
Giuliani - 10%
Bachmann - 6%
Gingrich - 4%
Pataki - 3%
Huntsman - 2%

Iowa
Santorum - 26%
Romney - 22%
Paul - 15%
Perry - 11%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 6%

New Hampshire
Romney: 36%
Giuliani: 13%
Santorum: 10%
Huntsman: 8%
Perry: 5%

[Jayhawker]

December Summary
Several more debates are held throughout December. Largely, the debates are considered a wash, as no candidate received a huge bounce. Perry has continued his downward trend nationally due to his poor campaigning, and Gingrich has failed to grab any momentum.

In Iowa, the race is between Romney, Santorum, and Paul. However, with attacks mounting on Romney and Santorum, Paul has a shot here. Santorum is having to compete with the conservative vote with Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich, while Romney is having to compete for the moderate vote with Pataki and Giuliani, both who have decided to invest in Iowa.
- Annalist Chuck Todd

Iowa 3rd, 2012:
Today, the Iowa caucus was held in Iowa.

Ron Paul Wins the Iowa Caucus!

Results:
Ron Paul - 24% (Yellow)
Mitt Romney - 23% (Green)
Rick Santorum - 21% (Red)
Rick Perry - 14% (Blue)
Michele Bachmann - 11%
Newt Gingrich - 4%


Ron Paul - Red

[Jerseyrules]

Go Ronny Go!

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Go Ronny Go!

[Jerseyrules]

This dead?

[Jayhawker]

This dead?

No, I just forgot to update it.

There'll be an update today.

[Jayhawker]

January 4th, 2012:

Following a disappointing finish in Iowa, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann  and former Speaker Newt Gingrich withdraws from the Presidential race, neither making an endorsement.

Last night, the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, and with last nights results in mind, I have decided to stand aside in the race to take on Barack Obama this November. I am proud of what we have accomplished, and have no regrets. We stood our ground, and never compromised our principles.

The fight continues, and it remains crucial that we make sure Barack Obama is a one-term President! I will do whatever I can in this race to make sure that happens, regardless of who our nominee may be.
- Michele Bachmann

Unable to gain traction, Michele Bachmann withdraws from the race

Today, I announce my withdrawal from the Presidential race. There is no timetable for an endorsement.

This isn't what we were hoping for, but Iowans have spoken, and I don't see a viable path forward for our campaign. I thank all of my supporters, and wish you all the best. Thank you.
- Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich withdraws from the Presidential Race

Polling Update:

Obama Job Approval Rating (Rasmussen Reports)
Approve:  45%   
Disapproval: 54% 

Obama Job Approval Rating (Gallup)
Approval:  43 %   (strongly approve: 25%)
Disapproval:  50 %  (strongly disapprove: 44%)

New Hampshire Primary (Public Policy Polling)
Romney - 30%
Giuliani - 19%
Paul - 16%
Huntsman - 9%
Santorum - 7%
Pataki - 7%
Perry - 3%

New Hampshire Primary (Suffolk University)
Romney - 28%
Paul - 20%
Giuliani - 19%
Huntsman - 8%
Santorum - 6%
Pataki - 5%
Perry - 2%

South Carolina Primary (Marist College)
Santorum - 25%
Romney - 18%
Perry - 15%
Paul - 11%
Giuliani - 6%
Huntsman - 3%
Pataki - 2%

National Polling (Gallup 3-Day Tracking)
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Paul - 15%
Perry - 10%
Giuliani - 8%
Huntsman - 4%
Pataki - 3%

Analysis: As the election progresses, many Republicans are unhappy with the choice in this race. Over 60% of "Tea Party Voters" say they are at least somewhat dissatisfied with the field of candidates.

[Jerseyrules]

Yay!

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

Yay!

[ChairmanSanchez]

Did Rudy and Pataki make the ballot in Iowa?

[Jerseyrules]

Did Rudy and Pataki make the ballot in Iowa?

Doesn't look like it.

[Jayhawker]

Did Rudy and Pataki make the ballot in Iowa?

They did, just performed poorly, so weren't on the list.