Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ORIGINAL THREAD TITLE - Which Gay would you have voted for as President of Ireland?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0814/martinm.html

[lilTommy]

Well... did i ever think this was going in a different direction... i was going to nominate Stephen Gately

McAleese is stepping down?

[oakvale]

David Norris. *cough*

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

David Norris. *cough*

This.

Well... did i ever think this was going in a different direction... i was going to nominate Stephen Gately

McAleese is stepping down?

Her term has expired.

[oakvale]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

[Јas]

1. Norris
2. Byrne
3. Mitchell

[Јas]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

I've thought for near years now that they'd nominate McGuinness and that she'd win.
The whole we must nominate the most Fine Gael-est candidate we can find bit was rather odd.

[Χahar]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

When was the last time the Fine Gael candidate did have a chance? 1973?

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

When was the last time the Fine Gael candidate did have a chance? 1973?

Yes. But there was no election in 1983 nor 2004.

[ObserverIE]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

I've thought for near years now that they'd nominate McGuinness and that she'd win.
The whole we must nominate the most Fine Gael-est candidate we can find bit was rather odd.

The short answer is that the election result has gone to their heads (or at least to the heads of the parliamentary party and national executive; McGuinness won among the city and county councillors in the electoral college).

They seem to believe that what happened in February was not primarily a rejection of Fianna Fáil's economic mismanagement; instead they think that the electorate have collectively fallen in love with Fine Gael and with all of their predilections, prejudices and general historical baggage.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

Also, I can change the title of this if people want to discuss the election?

[Јas]

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

TDs or Senators. It's hard though to figure out where those 3 nominations would come from. Shane Ross one presumes is gettable, but apart from that?

The county council option might still be a viable route though.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

TDs or Senators. It's hard though to figure out where those 3 nominations would come from. Shane Ross one presumes is gettable, but apart from that?

The county council option might still be a viable route though.

One could imagine him getting two more councils, and one more TD/Senator. (Someone said that if he got 19 that he'd be willing to be number 20) and not being able to make it.

When is the deadline anyway?

I'd figure people would be a little upset if that happened, and it would lead to reform in the nominating procedure.

[lilTommy]

Sort of on topic... Martin McGuiness is the Sinn Fein candidate, who is apparently "hated" by Gay Byrne. Any legit shot?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-15031025

[Јas]

One could imagine him getting two more councils, and one more TD/Senator. (Someone said that if he got 19 that he'd be willing to be number 20) and not being able to make it.

When is the deadline anyway?

I'd figure people would be a little upset if that happened, and it would lead to reform in the nominating procedure.

The deadline in noon, next Wednesday.

Michael Lowry said he'd give Norris a 20th nomination if he makes 19.

I see Mattie McGrath is reconsidering his backing for Dana (as she has no hope of getting the requisite support within the Oireachtas).

Shane Ross is the only other independent who hasn't ruled out supporting Norris.

Everyone else seems to have ruled themselves out, so all 3 would be necessary.

About a dozen country councils are meeting before next Wednesday that will consider motions of support for either Norris, Dana or Mary Davis. Norris already has 1 (Fingal), he needs 3 more. Dana will probably get Donegal, not sure about any others. Mary Davis has 13 but is actively pursuing more.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Sort of on topic... Martin McGuiness is the Sinn Fein candidate, who is apparently "hated" by Gay Byrne. Any legit shot?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-15031025

I like McGuiness so I hope so, but he's likely very "transfer toxic" and would not win on any final ballot no matter who he was up against.

[Sibboleth]

Running McGuinness is a wonderful piece of trolling from the Shinners, got to give them that.

[ObserverIE]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

[Californian Tony]

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

McGuinness VS Norris (if that were the final ballot) Norris would win. McGuinness VS Higgins, Higgins wins. VS Davis, Davis wins, etc

How about Norris VS Higgins, or, Norris VS Davis?

[Insula Dei]

What are general election polls at? Has Labour taken the right short-term decision by joining FG in government?

[oakvale]

Haha, Gay Mitchell.

Belgian - there was a poll (can't remember by who, but it was one of the fairly reputable ones) which had Labour at 20, with Fine Gael around 40, which is a pretty good result by both government parties.

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What are general election polls at? Has Labour taken the right short-term decision by joining FG in government?

No, lemme get the link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

Anytime you want to find anything like this, type "wikipedia next general election ______" into google, and the answer will be there if anywhere.

[Insula Dei]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

They self-refer as Ireland's "Republican Party". SF is clearly Republican too. If SF can convince people they are not terrorists, FF could disappear.