Israeli General Election 2013

[WillipsBrighton]

I think it's official now. We have a government. Likud-Yesh Atid-Jewish Home-Livni.

Lieberman stays at foreign affairs. Lapid gets finance and Yesh also takes education. Bennett gets trade and the National Union likely gets housing.

I predict this government drafts the ultra Orthodox, takes away some of their benefits, then falls in less than a year. After that Netanyahu will form a new government with Shas instead of Yesh.

[Hnv1]

You work for Meretz?

Also, surely they would have to add an exception for minority parties...it would just be terrible PR.

I'm a convention member and long time activist

I would have been happy with MK Garman as MoIA (Interior Affairs), and MK Shelah as the head of the Knesset's Finance Committee. That would have created the needed changes in the interior arena and would have dried the settlements' money tap. But dear Lapid proved again he has more hair products than intellect.

And on a happier note, let the knives in Likud be drawn; there is nothing I love more than seeing their domestic disputes.

[WillipsBrighton]

Cabinet announced today:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-third_government_of_Israel

Yaalon taking Defense for Likud.

Lapid taking finance. Yesh Atid also took Education, Welfare, and Health.

Bennett took Trade/Industry/Labor, Religious Affairs, and Jerusalem Affairs and his co-partyists took Housing and Pensions.

Netanyahu is holding Foreign Affairs for Liberman and YB took Immigrant Absorption, Public Security, Tourism, and Agriculture.

Also, there are rumors that Likud and YB will split into separate parliamentary groups and Netanyahu will abolish Likud primaries (although I'm unsure how he could manage that second part).

[Hnv1]

Cabinet announced today:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-third_government_of_Israel

Yaalon taking Defense for Likud.

Lapid taking finance. Yesh Atid also took Education, Welfare, and Health.

Bennett took Trade/Industry/Labor, Religious Affairs, and Jerusalem Affairs and his co-partyists took Housing and Pensions.

Netanyahu is holding Foreign Affairs for Liberman and YB took Immigrant Absorption, Public Security, Tourism, and Agriculture.

Also, there are rumors that Likud and YB will split into separate parliamentary groups and Netanyahu will abolish Likud primaries (although I'm unsure how he could manage that second part).

For the very first time in Israel we have a economic neo-liberal coalition against a social-democratic opposition. should be interesting.

Today the opposition held a first gathering to determine how they will battle the government when a surprise visitor showed up, booted Speaker of the Knesset Riblin.

[WillipsBrighton]

I still think Yesh Atid will return to being the official opposition before this Knesset is over, unfortunately.

[WillipsBrighton]

Anybody know how the Ethiopian community voted?

[danny]

Anybody know how the Ethiopian community voted?

There are no exit polls, so I tried the best thing I could. There is a single neighborhood that has a majority of Ethiopians in Kiryat Moshe, Rehovot. However, I am not sure what the exact percentage of Ethiopians is (but it's supposed to be really high), or whether Ethiopians there vote the same way as other Ethiopians

Kiryat Moshe, Rehovot:

Likud Beitenu: 49%
Shas: 14%
JH-NU: 8%
Labour: 6%
Achim Anachnu (a small Ethiopian party): 5%
Yesh Atid: 5%

[Speaker Superique]

LOL Yesh Atid with the Jewish Home! That looks like the LibDems working on with the UKIP haha

[danny]

LOL Yesh Atid with the Jewish Home! That looks like the LibDems working on with the UKIP haha

They are not that different really. Yes, JH is somewhat more religious and hawkish. But they both don't like the Haredi parties, and share similar economic views. Look at what Ayelet Shaked (JH) wrote after the coalition was agreed upon: "For the first time in Israel we will have a clear right wing liberal economic coalition and a clear social democratic opposition."

[Speaker Superique]

LOL Yesh Atid with the Jewish Home! That looks like the LibDems working on with the UKIP haha

They are not that different really. Yes, JH is somewhat more religious and hawkish. But they both don't like the Haredi parties, and share similar economic views. Look at what Ayelet Shaked (JH) wrote after the coalition was agreed upon: "For the first time in Israel we will have a clear right wing liberal economic coalition and a clear social democratic opposition."

Yes, I see what you mean but what surprised me most is that Yesh Atid and Jewish Home are working tightly close. They have some similarities on the social issues, on the Orthodox Draft and , in some ways, on the economical views but their differences on foreign policy are so great that a partnership between both amazes me a lot!

Actually, Yesh Atid wants a two state solution that looks closer to what Netanyahu proposed on the Bar-Ilan Speech and that is why I'm ok with its participation on Likud's Coalition. But the Jewish Home participation was just a way to please Likud backbenchers and unsatisfied right-wing voters......

I believe that this Coalition won't stand for so much longer.

Also, one question: Why Kadima was vanished on this election?

[danny]

Yes, I see what you mean but what surprised me most is that Yesh Atid and Jewish Home are working tightly close. They have some similarities on the social issues, on the Orthodox Draft and , in some ways, on the economical views but their differences on foreign policy are so great that a partnership between both amazes me a lot!

Foreign policy doesn't seem to be a very important issue for Lapid, so if he thinks he can advance other issues he seems content with keeping the status quo.

Actually, Yesh Atid wants a two state solution that looks closer to what Netanyahu proposed on the Bar-Ilan Speech and that is why I'm ok with its participation on Likud's Coalition. But the Jewish Home participation was just a way to please Likud backbenchers and unsatisfied right-wing voters......

That was absolutely not the reason for JH's participation at all, Bibi was quite happy leaving them out. It's simply because Lapid wouldn't agree to sit with the Haredi parties, to achieve this Lapid made an agreement with JH that they would only enter the coalition together. This left Bibi with no options with regards to the formation of the government. Bibi tried to avoid this forced coalition by offering finance to Yechimovich, but she refused so he had to make this coalition.

I believe that this Coalition won't stand for so much longer.

People always say that, sometimes it is true and other times not (like last time), it's hard to know these things in advance.

Also, one question: Why Kadima was vanished on this election?

Because Kadima, like all centrist parties, has no base, so they need to provide a compelling reason to vote for them. Instead they did nothing in four years other than infight, replace a not very popular leader with an even less popular one, and then topped it off with entering, and then leaving government in a couple of months, which made them look like a joke. On top of all this came the formation of two new new centrist parties, including one by their former leader until a few months prior and took more votes away.

[Speaker Superique]

I personally like Yesh Atid and Hatnuah but a government could be formed without them. Bibi could create a hawkish coalition formed by the Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism. If Hatnuah or Kadima supported them, then Bibi would have a feasible majority.

Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7) = 61 MKs
Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7), Hatnuah (6) and Kadima (2) = 69 MKs

Without Atid, Bibi wouldn't bother on having a bigger cabinet to please everyone. Keep the settlers, put Livini on Justice , Kadima on nothing and just please JH, Shas and UTJ with good cabinet rankings... What about Finance for Bennet?

[danny]

I personally like Yesh Atid and Hatnuah but a government could be formed without them. Bibi could create a hawkish coalition formed by the Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism. If Hatnuah or Kadima supported them, then Bibi would have a feasible majority.

Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7) = 61 MKs
Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7), Hatnuah (6) and Kadima (2) = 69 MKs

Without Atid, Bibi wouldn't bother on having a bigger cabinet to please everyone. Keep the settlers, put Livini on Justice , Kadima on nothing and just please JH, Shas and UTJ with good cabinet rankings... What about Finance for Bennet?

The deal I talked about in my prior post worked both ways, so when Bibi tried forming this coalition you propose, JH refused and said that they would only join with Lapid.

[Speaker Superique]

I personally like Yesh Atid and Hatnuah but a government could be formed without them. Bibi could create a hawkish coalition formed by the Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism. If Hatnuah or Kadima supported them, then Bibi would have a feasible majority.

Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7) = 61 MKs
Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7), Hatnuah (6) and Kadima (2) = 69 MKs

Without Atid, Bibi wouldn't bother on having a bigger cabinet to please everyone. Keep the settlers, put Livini on Justice , Kadima on nothing and just please JH, Shas and UTJ with good cabinet rankings... What about Finance for Bennet?

The deal I talked about in my prior post worked both ways, so when Bibi tried forming this coalition you propose, JH refused and said that they would only join with Lapid.

Poor Bibi, Crazy Bennet! Bennet would be the second in line on this coalition and his plan for a great Israel would have great support! Thought I don't like Bennet's idea, I think he has made a terrible political miscalculation.

[danny]

Poor Bibi, Crazy Bennet! Bennet would be the second in line on this coalition and his plan for a great Israel would have great support! Thought I don't like Bennet's idea, I think he has made a terrible political miscalculation.

I disagree, Lapid and the Haredi are not effectively different when it comes to foreign policy, and excluding them will allow Bennet to promote religious Zionist rabbis in to position of power, after the Haredi have done there best to exclude them and monopolize control over religious authorities. As long as he is in government, especially in one that is dependent on him, no Palestinian state could be formed anyway.

[WillipsBrighton]

If you're a leftist, you really shouldn't like Yesh Atid. At all. They're economic libertarians. They claim to care about the middle class but to them, the "middle class" means doctors and lawyers. On peace, they aren't much better. Despite what the international media, who had absolutely no idea how to cover the election, said, Yesh Atid did not campaign on peace issues. They campaigned on vague technocratic platitudes. Yes, they support the two state solution but only because that's the default technocrat solution. They also are willing to accept the diplomatic status quo, because that's also the default technocratic solution.

[Sibboleth]

A blank canvas onto which voters were encouraged to paint whatever they felt like.

[Lurker]

A blank canvas onto which voters were encouraged to paint whatever they felt like.

Sort of like the Lib Dems in Britain?

[Hnv1]

A blank canvas onto which voters were encouraged to paint whatever they felt like.

Yesh Atid is not really a party in the sense it has no real ideology but for the promotion of its megalomaniac leader, true it has some fine people in there (Germen, Shelah) but on the overall its a manifestation of how politics lost its ideological traits and became a shallow stage for people who seek power.
I dread a day in which Lapid is PM more than I dislike the fact Netanyahu is right now, people like Lapid who cannot grasp the concept of democracy or form actual opinions on matters are the recipe for degeneration and moral and practical collapse .

From day one it was obvious Lapid was just a figure head for the selected few who put him there, like Yediut Aharonot owner, Nony Moses   
 

[Speaker Superique]

So I think I don't like Lapid anymore

[Speaker Superique]

Poor Bibi, Crazy Bennet! Bennet would be the second in line on this coalition and his plan for a great Israel would have great support! Thought I don't like Bennet's idea, I think he has made a terrible political miscalculation.

I disagree, Lapid and the Haredi are not effectively different when it comes to foreign policy, and excluding them will allow Bennet to promote religious Zionist rabbis in to position of power, after the Haredi have done there best to exclude them and monopolize control over religious authorities. As long as he is in government, especially in one that is dependent on him, no Palestinian state could be formed anyway.

That is not what I meant, I was saying about a coalition between the Haredi, Jewish Home and Likud-Beitenu. They would love a hawkish foreign policy and Bennet would give up of the universal draft stuff.

Besides of that impossible reality, what is the probability of UTJ entering government after some years?
I heard that UTJ was willing to create a faction with the JH and then they have given up...

Regarding Yesh Atid, I might be once more totally wrong but I think it will fall just like Kadima... And I can see Kadima merging with Yesh Atid.

LOL Imagine that = Kadima + Hatnuah + Yesh Atid => New Centrist Party (National Responsability?) 27 Seats

[danny]

That is not what I meant, I was saying about a coalition between the Haredi, Jewish Home and Likud-Beitenu. They would love a hawkish foreign policy and Bennet would give up of the universal draft stuff.

It wouldn't be more hawkish than the current one, and bennet would have to give up control of the rabbinate to the Haredim.

Besides of that impossible reality, what is the probability of UTJ entering government after some years?
I heard that UTJ was willing to create a faction with the JH and then they have given up...

Not as long as Lapid vetoes them.

Regarding Yesh Atid, I might be once more totally wrong but I think it will fall just like Kadima... And I can see Kadima merging with Yesh Atid.

LOL Imagine that = Kadima + Hatnuah + Yesh Atid => New Centrist Party (National Responsability?) 27 Seats

None of them like each other, and Lapid is the only one with electoral strength, Lapid has n need for them.