Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[YL]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

[minionofmidas]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

[Harry Hayfield]

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

Change on FPV 2011
Lab -4.7% FF +5.1% Soc +2.0% FG -13.4%
Swing from Lab to FF of 4.9%

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

Labour though will get the vast bulk of the FG transfers so it won´t matter (though Coppinger will probably finish second due to SF transfers).

[minionofmidas]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

Labour though will get the vast bulk of the FG transfers so it won´t matter (though Coppinger will probably finish second due to SF transfers).

How about FF's transfer, should the Socialists pip them on transfers. Is it conceivable that Coppinger catches Nulty on those?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I really doubt it. There will be a lot of non-transferables. The people who still vote FF are those people who think that having Sean Gallagher in the aras is a good idea and those people tend not to heavily preference trotskyites. (This is Brian Lenihan´s vote after all and as far as I know, he dominated in Castleknock, which is the posh end of this constituency).

[minionofmidas]

I really doubt it. There will be a lot of non-transferables. The people who still vote FF are those people who think that having Sean Gallagher in the aras is a good idea and those people tend not to heavily preference trotskyites. (This is Brian Lenihan´s vote after all and as far as I know, he dominated in Castleknock, which is the posh end of this constituency).

Okay.

[Јas]

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[Hash]

>: Why has FF done so well?

[Јas]

Looks like Michael D will not be the shortest Head of State in the world. He's 5'4" apparently - giving him an inch on Kim Jong-il.

Dmitry Medvedev is also a reported 5'4"; with Sarkozy and Berlusconi but an inch taller.

[Јas]

>: Why has FF done so well?

The Plain People of Ireland are a forgiving and forgetful bunch.

[minionofmidas]

They are out of government, and Labour is in. Why shouldn't they rebound just a tiny little bit?

[minionofmidas]

Some cool exit poll data.

Only 15% of those who vote FG in the last Dail election voted for Gay Mitchell. Higgins leads such voters with 40ish, and Gallagher is in second.
Gallagher not just won a majority of those who voted FF last time around (yeah well duh), but also came an easy first among those who voted FF in 2007.

And our first few by-constituency first count results.

1541 Dublin South-West RESULT: Higgins 40.1%; Gallagher 22%; McGuinness 16.6%; Norris 9.6%; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1%; Scallon 2.1%

1539 Dublin Mid-West RESULT: Higgins 40.3%; Gallagher 22.1%; McGuinness 15.9; Norris 10.2; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1; Scallon 2%

[minionofmidas]

[minionofmidas]

Kildare North RESULT: Higgins 45.8%; Gallagher 26.9%; McGuinness 8.8%; Norris 8.1%; Mitchell 5.5%; Davis 2.8%; Scallon 2.1%

Yeah, I get a feeling this count is going to be as dull as Gay Mitchell.

[Јas]

Looks like there's no chance FG will be able to reclaim their election expenses.

[minionofmidas]

Dublin West by-election FIRST COUNT: Patrick Nulty 8,665; David McGuinness 7,742; Ruth Coppinger 7,542; Eithne Loftus 5,263; Paul Donnelly 3,173; Roderic O'Gorman 1,787; Barry Ceasar Hunt 775; John Frank Kidd 311; Gerry Bermingham 185; Brendan Patrick Doris 95; Jim Tallon 73; Beeny Cooney 51; Peadar O Ceallaigh 40
Quota 17,852, so "9 and 5" was accurate.

Dublin West RESULT: Higgins 43.2%; Gallagher 24.1%; McGuinness 11.9%; Norris 10.1%; Mitchell 5.3%;
Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Dublin South RESULT: Higgins 51.1%; Gallagher 20%; Norris 9.8%; Mitchell 7.3%; McGuinness 6.5%; Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Gerry Adams said Michael D Higgins will be a fine President.
He will have Sean Gallagher's full support as President and Gallagher sincerely thanks him for a positive campaign.
Eamon Gilmore is thrilled that Michael D Higgins will be the next President of Ireland.

[minionofmidas]

Finally a result from Real Ireland.

Donegal North East RESULT: McGuinness 32.2%; Gallagher 28.2%; Higgins 23.1%; Scallon 6.7%; Mitchell 4.9%; Norris 2.8%; Davis 2.1%

Quite some discrepancies... not that Donegal is representative of rural Ireland, of course. (Cue second Lisbon referendum )

Also two more Dublin results. Yawnie.

[ObserverIE]

Dublin North (newish middle class suburbia cum whatever rural parts of county Dublin there actually are):

Higgins 44.8 Gallagher 25.5 McGuinness 10.4 Norris 9.8 Mitchell 4.4 Davis 3.2 Scallon 1.8

Dublin Central (city centre; mixture of working-class areas and some older middle-class areas, flatland, and some new dockland apartment developments; large immigrant population):

Higgins 44.0 Gallagher 18.4 McGuinness 16.1 Norris 12.9 Mitchell 5.0 Davis 2.9 Scallon 2.7

Dublin South East (embassy belt plus bourgeois bohemia with a large helping of flatland):

Higgins 53.5 Gallagher 13.7 Norris 11.7 Mitchell 8.2 McGuinness 7.5 Davis 3.2 Scallon 2.2

Dún Laoghaire (very wealthy but socially liberal suburbia with some working-class presence):

Higgins 52.5 Gallagher 17.7 Norris 10.2 Mitchell 7.0 McGuinness 6.9 Davis 3.5 Scallon 2.2

Tipperary South (rural Real Ireland; mixture of prosperous dairying farmland with a number of small industrial towns):

Higgins 35.4 Gallagher 34.1 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 7.8 Norris 4.4 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.4

Donegal South West (very rural, fishing/small farming, large Irish-speaking areas):

Gallagher 32.3 McGuinness 28.4 Higgins 23.1 Scallon 5.8 Mitchell 5.3 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.1

Dublin South Central (very working class with a lot of 1930s-50s housing developments, but also Mitchell's former constituency):

Higgins 39.9 McGuinness 16.6 Gallagher 15.0 Mitchell 12.1 Norris 11.4 Davis 2.7 Scallon 2.3

Kildare South (rural end of County Kildare, horsey country with residual rural working class with newer outer suburban developments):

Higgins 40.2 Gallagher 31.4 McGuinness 11.5 Norris 6.3 Mitchell 5.4 Davis 3.0 Scallon 2.1

Galway East (very rural but within Michael D.-land):

Higgins 46.2 Gallagher 28.9 McGuinness 10.4 Mitchell 6.2 Scallon 3.6 Norris 2.5 Davis 2.3

Sligo-North Leitrim (largeish working-class town with a lot of very rural and often remote areas attached):

Higgins 36.5 Gallagher 29.3 McGuinness 16.1 Mitchell 7.0 Norris 4.0 Scallon 3.8 Davis 3.3

Dublin North East (mixture of some very wealthy areas like Howth with a lot of 70s and 80s working-class developments and bubble economy new developments like Belmayne):

Higgins 43.9 Gallagher 21.0 McGuinness 13.2 Norris 10.3 Mitchell 5.1 Davis 4.4 Scallon 2.2

[Harry Hayfield]

Dublin West by-election FIRST COUNT: Patrick Nulty 8,665; David McGuinness 7,742; Ruth Coppinger 7,542; Eithne Loftus 5,263; Paul Donnelly 3,173; Roderic O'Gorman 1,787; Barry Ceasar Hunt 775; John Frank Kidd 311; Gerry Bermingham 185; Brendan Patrick Doris 95; Jim Tallon 73; Beeny Cooney 51; Peadar O Ceallaigh 40
Quota 17,852, so "9 and 5" was accurate.

(Source: RTE News)
Change on 2011: Fine Gael -5% Labour +8% Fianna Fail -16% Sinn Fein +4% Socialist +7% Independent +4%. Swing: Fianna Fail to Labour of 12%

[ObserverIE]

Cork East (mixture of some very prosperous agricultural areas with a lot of small industrial towns and some Cork city commuter territory):

Higgins 36.6 Gallagher 34.4 McGuinness 13.8 Mitchell 6.0 Norris 4.3 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.1

Cork North West (very rural, rather socially conservative, some remote areas, but with a chunk of Cork city commuterland bolted on):

Gallagher 38.4 Higgins 34.3 McGuinness 11.6 Mitchell 7.6 Norris 3.7 Scallon 3.0 Davis 1.5

Meath East (manages to combine, in a not at all gerrymandered fashion, large chunks of newish and negative-equitied Dublin commuter belt with traditionally prosperous farming territory):

Higgins 38.1 Gallagher 32.2 McGuinness 11.7 Norris 6.7 Mitchell 6.3 Davis 2.8 Scallon 2.3

Limerick City (notoriously tough working-class city with a reputation for Catholicism and gang wars):

Higgins 49.3 Gallagher 22.2 McGuinness 12.1 Norris 6.0 Mitchell 5.6 Scallon 2.9 Davis 1.9

Cork South West (predominantly rural and sometimes remote, large fishing vote, attracts alternative lifestylers and some Cork commuters):

Gallagher 35.0 Higgins 33.9 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 8.5 Norris 4.3 Scallon 3.2 Davis 2.2

Mayo (rural, remote, much given to worship of Enda Kenny, Davis's home constituency):

Higgins 38.3 Gallagher 25.2 McGuinness 11.9 Davis 9.4 Mitchell 9.2 Scallon 3.2 Norris 2.8

Meath West (the other non-gerrymandered Meath seat, combining the large commuter-belt town of Navan with some more prosperous rural seat, eventually confounded its non-gerrymander in February by electing a SF TD):

Higgins 34.4 Gallagher 33.9 McGuinness 14.9 Mitchell 6.1 Norris 5.9 Scallon 2.7 Davis 2.5

[minionofmidas]

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

[ObserverIE]

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

I'll pass back to you in about 15/20 minutes when I have to go out.

Now looking as if Mitchell will manage to edge Norris on first preferences.

[ObserverIE]

Wexford (traditionally prosperous farming with rural working-class and small industrial town mixture with a bit of fishing thrown in, now with sprinkling of Dublin negative-equity commuter belt in the north):

Higgins 36.2 Gallagher 33.9 McGuinness 14.0 Mitchell 6.0 Norris 4.8 Davis 2.5 Scallon 2.5

[minionofmidas]

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

I'll pass back to you in about 15/20 minutes when I have to go out.

Now looking as if Mitchell will manage to edge Norris on first preferences.

Sadly so, yeah.

And we'll have to find someone else... I'm going out right about the same time.

By-election count is continuing apace.

NULTY, Patrick    LAB       8665    8885    10186
COPPINGER, Ruth    SP       7542    7834    9368
McGUINNESS, David    FF        7742    7935    8720
LOFTUS, Eithne    FG    5263    5410    5942
DONNELLY, Paul    SF    3173    3309    -
O'GORMAN, Roderic    GP    1787    1925

Coppinger has been ever so marginally closing the gap so far, and has already overtaken McGuinness, but Loftus is to be eliminated next.