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| | |-+  Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Poll
Question: Which Gay do you support?
Gay Mitchell   -6 (60%)
Gay Byrne   -4 (40%)
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Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 23492 times)
freek
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« Reply #275 on: October 29, 2011, 10:01:21 am »
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Fourth count RESULT: Higgins 1,007,104 (+213,976) and Gallagher 628,114 (+79,741)
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Јas
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« Reply #276 on: October 29, 2011, 10:24:22 am »
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Greetings all. I'm Teddy's friend, the one who made the maps. I'm very glad you've found them useful. Teddy left me numerous messages to come here, so here I am!

Welcome Smiley
Excellent blog btw
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Funny 'cause it's true:
Very few people seriously allow facts to affect their opinions.

Јas
Jas
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« Reply #277 on: October 29, 2011, 11:30:16 am »
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Early tallies on the referenda...
Judicial pay passing 80-20
Oireachtas enquiries failing 46-54
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Funny 'cause it's true:
Very few people seriously allow facts to affect their opinions.

Јas
Jas
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« Reply #278 on: October 29, 2011, 11:59:07 am »
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Funny 'cause it's true:
Very few people seriously allow facts to affect their opinions.

ObserverIE
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« Reply #279 on: October 29, 2011, 12:11:06 pm »
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Remaining final constituency results:

Carlow-Kilkenny: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 61.5 Higgins 38.5
Cork East: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Dublin Central: Higgins 60.2 Gallagher 39.8
Dublin North: Higgins 66.0 Gallagher 34.0
Dublin North East: Higgins 69.3 Gallagher 30.7
Dublin North West: Higgins 67.4 Gallagher 32.6
Dublin South East: Higgins 79.9 Gallagher 20.1
Dublin South West: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Dún Laoghaire: Higgins 75.5 Gallagher 24.5
Galway West: Higgins 75.8 Gallagher 24.2
Kerry North-West Limerick: Higgins 60.5 Gallagher 39.5
Kerry South: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Kildare North: Higgins 65.4 Gallagher 34.6
Kildare South: Higgins 57.9 Gallagher 42.1
Laois-Offaly: Higgins 51.1 Gallagher 48.9
Limerick: Higgins 57.8 Gallagher 42.2
Longford-Westmeath: Higgins 56.2 Gallagher 43.8
Louth: Higgins 59.0 Gallagher 41.0
Meath East: Higgins 58.5 Gallagher 41.5
Roscommon-South Leitrim: Higgins 52.0 Gallagher 48.0
Tipperary North: Higgins 54.4 Gallagher 45.6
Waterford: Higgins 59.2 Gallagher 40.8
Wexford: Higgins 55.5 Gallagher 44.5

Regional results:

Dublin: Higgins 70.2 Gallagher 29.8
Rest of Leinster: Higgins 57.7 Gallagher 42.3
Munster: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Connacht: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Ulster (part of): Gallagher 56.4 Higgins 43.6

National: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #280 on: October 29, 2011, 12:37:09 pm »
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Count 4

Higgins701,101(39.6%)+29,379730,480(41.2%)
+62,648
793,128(44.8%)
+213,946
1,007,104(56.8%)
Gallagher504,964(28.5%)+24,437529,401(29.9%)
+18,972
548,373(31.0%)
+79,741
628,114
(35.5%)
McGuinness243,030(13.7%)
+9,581
252,611(14.3%)
+12,585
265,196(15.0%)
-265,196
Mitchell113,321
(6.4%)
+14,036
127,357
(7.2%)
+8,952
136,309
(7.7%)
-136,309
Norris109,469
(6.2%)
+7,057
116,526
(6.6%)
-116,526
Scallon
51,220
(2.9%)
-51,220
Davis
48,567
(2.7%)
-48,567
Non-transferable
0
(0.0%)
+15,387
15,387
(0.9%)
+13,369
28,756
(1.6%)
+107,718
136,474
(7.7%)

Higgins elected
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #281 on: October 29, 2011, 02:32:02 pm »
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And final
Higgins - 1,065,000
Gallagher - 667,000



My projection was right!

Within 3 thousand ballots when it's considered that 5.5% went exhausted that I did not expect to.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2011, 02:34:27 pm by Teddy (SoFE) »Logged

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Kevinstat
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« Reply #282 on: October 29, 2011, 03:09:58 pm »
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Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #283 on: October 29, 2011, 03:56:47 pm »
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Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.

http://presidentialelection.ie/downloads/Presidential_Elections_1938-2004.pdf

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JandK
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« Reply #284 on: October 29, 2011, 07:09:19 pm »
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Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #285 on: October 29, 2011, 07:24:03 pm »

What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #286 on: October 29, 2011, 08:26:50 pm »
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What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?

Twenty, I think:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201966

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201973
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farewell
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #287 on: October 30, 2011, 05:05:50 am »
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Some final results:
Donegal North East: Higgins 50.3 Gallagher 49.7
Haha, wow.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #288 on: October 30, 2011, 08:27:15 am »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Tongue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #289 on: October 30, 2011, 08:30:11 am »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Tongue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.

Cause when they made cross-the-board cuts to senior civil servants' pay at the height of the crisis, they had to exempt judges because of the provision now being amended.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #290 on: October 30, 2011, 08:33:20 am »
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Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #291 on: October 30, 2011, 08:36:06 am »
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Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.
The other referendum was attempting to overrule a contentious Supreme Court decision.
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Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #292 on: October 30, 2011, 08:51:55 am »
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Except in Ulster, Higgins received the last-count preferences of at least 50.0% (just over, in Roscommon - Leitrim) of third party voters, and usually no more than 56%, except in his Dublin strongholds and in Connaught, where they rise up to 60.8% (Galway West) and a whopping 66.3% (Dublin SE, with Dublin S, Dunleary, and Galway W being the three next best results.) 54.1% is the national figures.
43.4% in Cavan-Monaghan, 38.4% in Donegal SW, and 36.9% in Donegal NE form a remarkable outlier.
Gallagher receives between 15.9% (Dublin SE) and 25.3% (Donegal NE) anywhere except in Cavan-Monaghan, with Dublin results ranging up to 21.4% (N, SW), while his weakest share outside is in the city of Limerick at 18.2%. Cavan-Monaghan gave the local boy 30.8% of lower preferences. The national rate is 21.8%.
The exhausted shares (of the third party vote) are lowest in the same three South Dublin constituencies where Higgins cleans house, though they are not really outliers here - Dublin S coming in lowest at 17.4% - and range up to in 29.2% Cork NC, except in Donniegaul. Here 36.7% (SW) and 37.8% (NE) were exhausted. Cavan-Monaghan is unremarkable at 25.8%. In general, high exhaustion rates appear to be predictably correlated with high vote shares for Martin McGuinness. The national rate is 24.1%.
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Knowing me it's more likely than not.
JandK
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« Reply #293 on: October 30, 2011, 11:40:58 am »
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Maps for both referenda are online now, if anyone is interested.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #294 on: October 30, 2011, 05:05:00 pm »
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http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html



http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html

Donegal and Roscommon forming an unlikely alliance with Dublin 4 in being notably bolshie on the first of the referendums.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #295 on: October 31, 2011, 12:59:13 pm »
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A bit of that on the second referendum, too, actually.

First map is hilariously uniform, really.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Хahar
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« Reply #296 on: October 31, 2011, 03:21:50 pm »
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So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.

I've been reading your blog for a few months now. It's excellent stuff. Good work!
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Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
ObserverIE
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« Reply #297 on: October 31, 2011, 05:49:34 pm »
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So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Donegal is non-conformist (at least where conformity implies the official "Dublin" mindset) and has been for some time. It was the only area to vote against Lisbon II but even before that it tended to take a more socially conservative stance on the various abortion and divorce referendums. Throw in the Morris Tribunal revelations about Garda behaviour there and a more general sense of alienation from a central government due to geographic isolation and perceived official indifference, and you end up with a county that "does different". Blaneyism arguably acted as a conduit whereby people in what had been a Fianna Fáil stronghold got used to not voting for "official" Fianna Fáil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY

Roscommon's bolshiness is more recent and owes a lot to the hospital issue.

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ObserverIE
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« Reply #298 on: December 17, 2011, 08:47:48 pm »
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      Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

      First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
      First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.

      Bumping this to take account of developments since then...

      Nulty, along with two other TDs - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) and Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) - has since been excluded from the Labour parliamentary party. Penrose, who was a "super junior" minister with the right to attend (but not vote at) Cabinet meetings, resigned over the closure of a military barracks in his constituency. Broughan voted against the Government over the renewal of guarantees to bondholders in the banks (an issue which Labour had trumpeted over the last few years as evidence of their good judgement and distance from "politics as usual"). Nulty voted against the rise in the higher rate of VAT from 23% to 25%. Both had the whip withdrawn and are now non-persons as far as Labour are concerned. (Interestingly, Willie Penrose - without whom Labour would have no significant presence in Westmeath - still exists.)

      Labour also seem to be hell-bent on self-immolation. Over the last month, they have:

      .
      [/list]

      The latest opinion poll released tonight by Behaviour & Attitudes gives:

      FG 30 (-7)
      SF 21 (+2)
      FF 20 (+5)
      Lab 11 (-4)
      Greens 3 (+1)
      Inds/Others 15 (+3)

      The overall Government approval rating is -43 (26/69).[/list]
      « Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 04:13:33 pm by ObserverIE »Logged
      Хahar
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      « Reply #299 on: December 18, 2011, 12:24:05 am »
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      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.
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      The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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