Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[freek]

Fourth count RESULT: Higgins 1,007,104 (+213,976) and Gallagher 628,114 (+79,741)

[Јas]

Greetings all. I'm Teddy's friend, the one who made the maps. I'm very glad you've found them useful. Teddy left me numerous messages to come here, so here I am!

Welcome
Excellent blog btw

[Јas]

Early tallies on the referenda...
Judicial pay passing 80-20
Oireachtas enquiries failing 46-54

[Јas]

[ObserverIE]

Remaining final constituency results:

Carlow-Kilkenny: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 61.5 Higgins 38.5
Cork East: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Dublin Central: Higgins 60.2 Gallagher 39.8
Dublin North: Higgins 66.0 Gallagher 34.0
Dublin North East: Higgins 69.3 Gallagher 30.7
Dublin North West: Higgins 67.4 Gallagher 32.6
Dublin South East: Higgins 79.9 Gallagher 20.1
Dublin South West: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Dún Laoghaire: Higgins 75.5 Gallagher 24.5
Galway West: Higgins 75.8 Gallagher 24.2
Kerry North-West Limerick: Higgins 60.5 Gallagher 39.5
Kerry South: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Kildare North: Higgins 65.4 Gallagher 34.6
Kildare South: Higgins 57.9 Gallagher 42.1
Laois-Offaly: Higgins 51.1 Gallagher 48.9
Limerick: Higgins 57.8 Gallagher 42.2
Longford-Westmeath: Higgins 56.2 Gallagher 43.8
Louth: Higgins 59.0 Gallagher 41.0
Meath East: Higgins 58.5 Gallagher 41.5
Roscommon-South Leitrim: Higgins 52.0 Gallagher 48.0
Tipperary North: Higgins 54.4 Gallagher 45.6
Waterford: Higgins 59.2 Gallagher 40.8
Wexford: Higgins 55.5 Gallagher 44.5

Regional results:

Dublin: Higgins 70.2 Gallagher 29.8
Rest of Leinster: Higgins 57.7 Gallagher 42.3
Munster: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Connacht: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Ulster (part of): Gallagher 56.4 Higgins 43.6

National: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0

[ObserverIE]

Count 4

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)	+62,648	793,128	(44.8%)	+213,946	1,007,104	(56.8%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)	+18,972	548,373	(31.0%)	+79,741	628,114	(35.5%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)	+12,585	265,196	(15.0%)	-265,196
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)	+8,952	136,309	(7.7%)	-136,309
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)	-116,526
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)	+13,369	28,756	(1.6%)	+107,718	136,474	(7.7%)

Higgins elected

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

And final
Higgins - 1,065,000
Gallagher - 667,000

My projection was right!

Within 3 thousand ballots when it's considered that 5.5% went exhausted that I did not expect to.

[Kevinstat]

Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.

[ObserverIE]

Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.

http://presidentialelection.ie/downloads/Presidential_Elections_1938-2004.pdf

[JandK]

Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.

[Sibboleth]

What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?

[ObserverIE]

What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?

Twenty, I think:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201966

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201973

[Vasall des Midas]

Some final results:
Donegal North East: Higgins 50.3 Gallagher 49.7

Haha, wow.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.

Cause when they made cross-the-board cuts to senior civil servants' pay at the height of the crisis, they had to exempt judges because of the provision now being amended.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.

The other referendum was attempting to overrule a contentious Supreme Court decision.

[Vasall des Midas]

Except in Ulster, Higgins received the last-count preferences of at least 50.0% (just over, in Roscommon - Leitrim) of third party voters, and usually no more than 56%, except in his Dublin strongholds and in Connaught, where they rise up to 60.8% (Galway West) and a whopping 66.3% (Dublin SE, with Dublin S, Dunleary, and Galway W being the three next best results.) 54.1% is the national figures.
43.4% in Cavan-Monaghan, 38.4% in Donegal SW, and 36.9% in Donegal NE form a remarkable outlier.
Gallagher receives between 15.9% (Dublin SE) and 25.3% (Donegal NE) anywhere except in Cavan-Monaghan, with Dublin results ranging up to 21.4% (N, SW), while his weakest share outside is in the city of Limerick at 18.2%. Cavan-Monaghan gave the local boy 30.8% of lower preferences. The national rate is 21.8%.
The exhausted shares (of the third party vote) are lowest in the same three South Dublin constituencies where Higgins cleans house, though they are not really outliers here - Dublin S coming in lowest at 17.4% - and range up to in 29.2% Cork NC, except in Donniegaul. Here 36.7% (SW) and 37.8% (NE) were exhausted. Cavan-Monaghan is unremarkable at 25.8%. In general, high exhaustion rates appear to be predictably correlated with high vote shares for Martin McGuinness. The national rate is 24.1%.

[JandK]

Maps for both referenda are online now, if anyone is interested.

[ObserverIE]

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html



http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html

Donegal and Roscommon forming an unlikely alliance with Dublin 4 in being notably bolshie on the first of the referendums.

[Vasall des Midas]

A bit of that on the second referendum, too, actually.

First map is hilariously uniform, really.

[Χahar]

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.

I've been reading your blog for a few months now. It's excellent stuff. Good work!

[ObserverIE]

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Donegal is non-conformist (at least where conformity implies the official "Dublin" mindset) and has been for some time. It was the only area to vote against Lisbon II but even before that it tended to take a more socially conservative stance on the various abortion and divorce referendums. Throw in the Morris Tribunal revelations about Garda behaviour there and a more general sense of alienation from a central government due to geographic isolation and perceived official indifference, and you end up with a county that "does different". Blaneyism arguably acted as a conduit whereby people in what had been a Fianna Fáil stronghold got used to not voting for "official" Fianna Fáil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY

Roscommon's bolshiness is more recent and owes a lot to the hospital issue.

[ObserverIE]

Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.

Bumping this to take account of developments since then...

Nulty, along with two other TDs - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) and Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) - has since been excluded from the Labour parliamentary party. Penrose, who was a "super junior" minister with the right to attend (but not vote at) Cabinet meetings, resigned over the closure of a military barracks in his constituency. Broughan voted against the Government over the renewal of guarantees to bondholders in the banks (an issue which Labour had trumpeted over the last few years as evidence of their good judgement and distance from "politics as usual"). Nulty voted against the rise in the higher rate of VAT from 23% to 25%. Both had the whip withdrawn and are now non-persons as far as Labour are concerned. (Interestingly, Willie Penrose - without whom Labour would have no significant presence in Westmeath - still exists.)

Labour also seem to be hell-bent on self-immolation. Over the last month, they have:

• made sure to associate themselves with the public expenditure cuts part of the budget,
• announced a cut to the disability allowance for 18-24 year-olds which was reversed two days later after public outrage accompanied by pious tut-tutting from their right-wing government partners,
• emerged as cheerleaders for the appointment of the current head of the Department of Finance, associated with a series of bad decisions, to a €200K p.a. sinecure in Brussels, with a dissident MEP being reportedly threatened with expulsion for opposing the appointment, and
• decided to cut hundreds of teaching positions in primary schools in underprivileged areas

.
[/list]

The latest opinion poll released tonight by Behaviour & Attitudes gives:

FG 30 (-7)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 20 (+5)
Lab 11 (-4)
Greens 3 (+1)
Inds/Others 15 (+3)

The overall Government approval rating is -43 (26/69).[/list]

[Χahar]

Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.