Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[argentarius]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

[ObserverIE]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.

[argentarius]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.

What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.

[ObserverIE]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.

What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.

I think the leadership didn't get enough support at the party convention to take an official stand in support of the treaty (it required 2/3rds support and they got 60%).

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.

[Χahar]

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?

Conceivably. But I think unlikely.

[Јas]

Early turnout news...

[ObserverIE]

Early turnout news...

Inishfree will not detain the tallymen for long on Friday.

[ObserverIE]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.

I see commentary from supposedly reputable economists pooh-poohing the effort required in reducing the debt/GDP ratio to 60% given "modest" nominal GDP growth estimates of 3.5% in a few years time and I wonder if they're in an alternate universe.

My suspicion is that we are going to be made pay dearly for Depfa and Hypo RealEstate. And given that our leaders seem to be intent on being the best little doormats in Europe, the only slim hope for this country is if something changes in the German federal elections next year.

[patrick1]

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?

[argentarius]

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?

Tomorrow morning. First to report will probably be some of the Dublin constituencies, and I guarantee last to report will be Donegal. They're very lazy.

[oakvale]

I, like (apparently) many people can't work up the enthusiasm to bother voting on this thing. I was leaning "yes", my brother was leaning "no", so since we'd cancel each other out...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0531/breaking3.html?via=mr

[argentarius]

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.

[ObserverIE]

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.

At a guess:

High Yes: Dublin South, Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South East, Cork South Central, Mayo (Mayo loves its Messiah), Dublin North, Kildare North, Wicklow

In short: upper-middle class Dublin and Cork and their more prosperous surrounds, along with the Enda-worshippers.

High No: Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Roscommon/South Leitrim, Dublin South Central, Cork North Central, Dublin South West, Dublin North West, Cavan/Monaghan

In short: working-class urban-dwellers and the more alienated areas west of the Shannon.

Overall guess: 62% Yes on a 47% turnout. People are more cynical than in Lisbon 2, but more frightened.

[ObserverIE]

Turnout likely to be well below 50% nationally. It was 52% at my local (very rural) polling station on the Leinster/Ulster border which generally manages 75% in general elections.

Turnout supposedly relatively higher in urban working-class areas which may be ominous for Yes (but then I seem to remember much the same being said on election night about Lisbon II which was 69% Yes).

[Torie]

"Secret" exit polls predict Yes vote victory by 3-2 margin despite low turnout. No, I don't know what this "secret" thing is all about, and the article does not tell us.

cc: Jas

[Јas]

"Secret" exit polls predict Yes vote victory by 3-2 margin despite low turnout. No, I don't know what this "secret" thing is all about, and the article does not tell us.

cc: Jas

That sort of result, it seems, is the closest thing to conventional wisdom about what the result might be - at least on the side that thinks Yes will win.

I'm pretty doubtful any such exit poll actually exists, but thanks for the pointer.

[Јas]

Counting has been underway for just over half an hour.

Very, very early indications suggest to me a single digit win for Yes seems plausible.

[Јas]

[Јas]

Early tallies starting to appear...

Dublin Mid West - 8% Boxes Open: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North West: 10% Boxes Open - NO 52% Yes 47%
Wicklow - 17% Boxes Open: Yes 55% No 45%
Laois/Offaly: 9% Boxes Open , Yes 60% No 40%

Unkown how many boxes open...
Wexford: Yes 60% No 40%
Dublin Mid West: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North: No 60% Yes 40%

[Јas]

Dublin South: 7.7% Boxes Open, Yes 69% No 31%
Louth: 10% boxes open, Yes 52.03% No 47.97%

[Јas]

Limerick County - 60% Boxes Open: Yes 60% No 40%
Limerick City - 70% Boxes Open: Yes 57% No 43%

[Јas]

Mayo - 20% boxes open: Yes 68% No 31%
Dublin South Central - 20% boxes open: NO 67% Yes 32%

[Χahar]

Why is there a box in the middle there? There are only two options.