Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Poll
Question: Which Gay do you support?
#1
Gay Mitchell		  
#2
Gay Byrne		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 85355 times)
Leftbehind
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« Reply #225 on: October 29, 2011, 03:12:12 AM »
Higgins was the best you could hope for really, but I can't help feel disappointed the Socialists couldn't make it into 2nd place in Dublin West (with all of its following consequences re reallocated votes) given the result.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #226 on: October 29, 2011, 03:38:45 AM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on October 28, 2011, 11:43:50 PM
Quote from: ObserverIE on October 28, 2011, 09:48:52 PM
Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty8,6658,88510,18613,02717,636
McGuinness7,7427,935
8,720
9,873
11,590
Coppinger7,5427,834
9,368
9,873
Loftus5,2635,410
5,942
Donnelly3,1733,309
O'Gorman1,7871,925
Caesar Hunt
775
Kidd
311
Bermingham
185
Doris
95
Tallon
73
Cooney
51
Ó Ceallaigh
40

I'm surprised Donnelly was eliminated at the same time as O'Gorman when O'Gorman's vote could have theoretically pushed Donnelly over the threshold to recieve some reimbursement for his expenses.  Not that 60% of the Green Party (second count) vote would have gone to a Shinner (as would have been necessary for Donnelly to cross the expenses threshold) with Labour, a Socialist and Fianna Fail still in play (I doubt FG would have gotten many) but still.  Or is the threshold in that election not 1/4 of the quota (just over 12.5% of the vote in the single-winner case)?

How was the tie in the second-to-last count broken in favor of FF?  Will there be another recount?

There are four methods of breaking a tie in an STV election
1. Forwards Tie-Breaking
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the first stage or at the earliest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

2. Backwards Tie-Breaking:
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the previous stage or at the latest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

3. Borda Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the highest [lowest] Borda score. See [2].

4. Coombs Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the fewest [most] last place votes.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #227 on: October 29, 2011, 04:04:54 AM »
I think it's safe to say that the 3rd and 4th would not have occurred to Irish lawmakers... and the second would have resulted in a different elimination... so clearly the law uses the first. Grin
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #228 on: October 29, 2011, 04:17:09 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2011, 04:25:52 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »
Higgins - 737,615 (+7,135)
Gallagher - 531,924 (+2,523)
McGuinness - 254,275 (+1,664)
Mitchell - 128,326 (+969)
8 of 43


PROJECTION
Higgins - 776,000
Gallagher - 545,500
McGuinness - 263,000
Mitchell - 133,500
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #229 on: October 29, 2011, 04:23:53 AM »
"The Socialist Party had asked for a recount after she was found to be just 18 votes behind the Fianna Fáil candidate.

The recheck found errors in the transfer process bringing Ms Coppinger level.

But after consultation with both parties, returning officer John Fitzpatrick said he was eliminating Ms Coppinger under Section 122 of the Electoral Act which means the person with the highest first preference vote goes through."


Will they be releasing later counts by constituency?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #230 on: October 29, 2011, 04:28:53 AM »
PROJECTION (based on 12 of 43)
Higgins - 784,000
Gallagher - 548,000
McGuinness - 265,000
Mitchell - 135,000
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #231 on: October 29, 2011, 04:29:55 AM »
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #232 on: October 29, 2011, 04:36:25 AM »

http://presidentialelection.ie/all_data.php
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #233 on: October 29, 2011, 04:37:14 AM »
My PROJECTION for the next ballot

Higgins - 875,000
Gallagher - 590,000
McGuinness - 267,000

And final
Higgins - 1,065,000
Gallagher - 667,000
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #234 on: October 29, 2011, 04:38:21 AM »
From: http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #235 on: October 29, 2011, 04:39:17 AM »
I know the guy who made that map.

Let me drag him here
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #236 on: October 29, 2011, 04:40:08 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #237 on: October 29, 2011, 04:40:44 AM »
Go raibh maith agat!
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #238 on: October 29, 2011, 04:41:10 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #239 on: October 29, 2011, 04:42:59 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #240 on: October 29, 2011, 04:43:48 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #241 on: October 29, 2011, 04:44:54 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #242 on: October 29, 2011, 04:45:46 AM »
Also from Irish Election Maps:
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #243 on: October 29, 2011, 04:46:19 AM »
Norris map is very clean-looking, if predictable. Is Dana from Donegal - I assume Davis is from Mayo?
EDIT: Dana's from Derry. Well, close enough.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #244 on: October 29, 2011, 04:46:48 AM »
These maps are awesome. This guy and I were supposed to work together making maps for NI and Ireland, but I lazed out and he did it all himself Tongue He does all the Irish election maps on Wikipedia.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #245 on: October 29, 2011, 04:58:14 AM »


Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #246 on: October 29, 2011, 04:59:24 AM »

Indeed so.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #247 on: October 29, 2011, 05:01:32 AM »
Why aren't McGuinness and Mitchell eliminated alongside with Norris on count 2 ?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #248 on: October 29, 2011, 05:03:52 AM »
Because the Irish Elections Agency is not as astute as I would be as SoFE Tongue
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #249 on: October 29, 2011, 05:06:23 AM »
Quote from: all the truth in the world adds up to one big lie on October 29, 2011, 04:23:53 AM
But after consultation with both parties, returning officer John Fitzpatrick said he was eliminating Ms Coppinger under Section 122 of the Electoral Act which means the person with the highest first preference vote goes through."

For those so interested, section 122 of the Electoral Act.
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