Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

The real ad is actually really creepy for some reason. There's something very "propaganda brain washing" over it.

It's probably the pseudo-Sigur Rós tinkling in the background. Either that or the monotonous succession of half- and quarter-truths being recited in the foreground.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

The real ad is actually really creepy for some reason. There's something very "propaganda brain washing" over it.

It's probably the pseudo-Sigur Rós tinkling in the background. Either that or the monotonous succession of half- and quarter-truths being recited in the foreground.

I believe it might be the combination of the two.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times

Yes 42 No 27 Don't know 31

Level of understanding of treaty

Very well 6 Quite well 12 To some extent 27 Not particularly well 23 Not at all 32

Party support levels

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (+2)
SF 16 (-4)
FF 15 (-1)
Lab 14 (+1)
Green 5 (+3)

[Хahar 🤔]

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

[Oakvale]

I'm probably going to vote against the treaty solely because of how annoying that ad is.

Behaviour & Attitudes polling continues to be weird. I think it's fairly well-established that Sinn Féin have been surging for some time at the expense of Labour and... everyone else.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

I don't.

[argentarius]

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

Hopefully I will be out of the country by then. I don't think they'll top the poll though. They always seem to overpoll before elections and go down throughout the campaign.

With regards to the referendum, I'll vote no.

[ObserverIE]

Red C for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 47 (-2) No 35 (+2) Don't know 18 (-)

Party support:

FG 32 (-2)
SF 19 (+1)
FF 17 (+1)
Ind/Others 15 (+2)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)
SP 1 (-)

[patrick1]

Irish opponents of Europe’s fiscal treaty are drawing inspiration from Athens and Paris as voters across Europe rebel against austerity.
The Irish hold a referendum on the treaty on May 31, after Greek and French voters rejected candidates promoting budget cuts to help solve the euro-region debt crisis. While opinion polls show the “yes” side ahead, that was also the case before previous unsuccessful plebiscites in Ireland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/ireland-s-treaty-opponents-gain-anti-austerity-ammunition.html

I'll be keeping an eye out for the next poll. I'd like to think the margins would narrow

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 53 (+6) No 32 (-3) Don't know 16 (-2)

Party support:

FG 29 (-3)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 19 (+2)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 13 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
SP 1 (-)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its only a matter of time, isn't it? This time next year, probably. At least. Though whether it would ever show up in electoral reality...

[ObserverIE]

People know that their political class are bullying and threatening them into voting a certain way in the referendum; they fear that they have no alternative; but they resent it.

Unless there's a miraculous economic recovery over the next three years, Fine Gael and Labour will meet the same fate as ND and PASOK. (Although the constitution would allow elections to be postponed until 2018 by a majority vote of parliament. Just sayin')

[You kip if you want to...]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

[ObserverIE]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

The thought of being bled dry economically and socially by our Teutonic masters and mistresses is considerably more terrifying.

Sinn Féin are not SYRIZA, but they are even less (despite the more fevered imaginings of our political/media class) Chrysi Avgi.

[MaxQue]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

Well, if that happens, it's Merkel fault.

[Frodo]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

How so? 

[Oakvale]

As if I needed any more incentive to flee the country as soon as reasonably possible.

[You kip if you want to...]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

How so? 

I won't go there. It always causes discomfort for the mods when it's discussed.

[minionofmidas]

Who are you, Tom Elliott?

[argentarius]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

[ObserverIE]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

As I said:

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[ObserverIE]

BTW, I actually got polled by RedC last night on voting intentions (likelihood to vote, treaty, general election - first and second preference parties, who had I voted for in 2011 and 2007) along with an endless set of questions about phone providers, so I assume there'll be another poll along shortly.

RedC seem to do their calling from England (the North-East judging by the accent of the interviewer). I wonder what subliminal effect that might have on the SF vote in their polls.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Irish Independent:

Yes 37 No 24 Don't know 35 Won't vote 4

[ObserverIE]

The other RedC poll I referred to earlier:

Yes 50 (-3) No 31 (-) Don't know 19 (+3)

[argentarius]

Paddypower, the main Irish betting company has yes at 1/6 right now. Famously they paid out on a yes vote for the first Lisbon on a rumour of a landslide victory but it's not looking good at all for the no side.