Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

People know that their political class are bullying and threatening them into voting a certain way in the referendum; they fear that they have no alternative; but they resent it.

Unless there's a miraculous economic recovery over the next three years, Fine Gael and Labour will meet the same fate as ND and PASOK. (Although the constitution would allow elections to be postponed until 2018 by a majority vote of parliament. Just sayin')

[You kip if you want to...]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

[ObserverIE]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

The thought of being bled dry economically and socially by our Teutonic masters and mistresses is considerably more terrifying.

Sinn Féin are not SYRIZA, but they are even less (despite the more fevered imaginings of our political/media class) Chrysi Avgi.

[Senator MaxQue]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

Well, if that happens, it's Merkel fault.

[Frodo]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

How so? 

[oakvale]

As if I needed any more incentive to flee the country as soon as reasonably possible.

[You kip if you want to...]

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

How so? 

I won't go there. It always causes discomfort for the mods when it's discussed.

[Vasall des Midas]

Who are you, Tom Elliott?

[argentarius]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

[ObserverIE]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

As I said:

People know that their political class are bullying and threatening them into voting a certain way in the referendum; they fear that they have no alternative; but they resent it.

[ObserverIE]

BTW, I actually got polled by RedC last night on voting intentions (likelihood to vote, treaty, general election - first and second preference parties, who had I voted for in 2011 and 2007) along with an endless set of questions about phone providers, so I assume there'll be another poll along shortly.

RedC seem to do their calling from England (the North-East judging by the accent of the interviewer). I wonder what subliminal effect that might have on the SF vote in their polls.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Irish Independent:

Yes 37 No 24 Don't know 35 Won't vote 4

[ObserverIE]

The other RedC poll I referred to earlier:

Yes 50 (-3) No 31 (-) Don't know 19 (+3)

[argentarius]

Paddypower, the main Irish betting company has yes at 1/6 right now. Famously they paid out on a yes vote for the first Lisbon on a rumour of a landslide victory but it's not looking good at all for the no side.

[patrick1]

The support for the Yes vote on most of these referenda is soft.   With spreads like those, light turnout could lead to a surprise No win. And then they will hold more votes until they get the result they want....

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

[patrick1]

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

True, and it is quite a disparate "coalition"- I guess gaggle would be more accurate.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI carried out between Wednesday and today:

Yes 39 (+9) No 30 (+7) Don't Know 22 (-17) Won't Vote 9 (+1)

In other news:

Asked if they believed there was an equal balance of power between all member states or whether one or two states dominated the EU, 77 per cent said one or two dominated; only 5 per cent felt there was an equal balance; 18 per cent didn’t know.

When asked to name which country dominated 69 per cent said Germany, 28 per cent opted for France, 1 per cent said the UK and another 1 per cent said Greece. Only 1 per cent of voters had no opinion on the issue.

The belief that Germany dominates the EU spanned all party supporters, regions and age groups.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0526/1224316733579.html

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 49 (-1) No 35 (+4) Don't know 16 (-3)

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Sunday Independent:

Yes 42 (+5) No 28 (+4) Don't know 31 (-8)

Behaviours & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Yes 45 (+3) No 30 (+5) Don't know 25 (-8)

[The Mikado]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

[argentarius]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

[ObserverIE]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

It's probably more accurate to say that the other parties hate them.

[Јas]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

[ObserverIE]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

[ObserverIE]

Party standings:

Millward Brown/Lansdowne (changes in comparison to earlier this month):

FG 36 (+2)
SF 20 (+3)
FF 17 (-)
Ind/Others 13 (-3)
Lab 12 (-3)
Greens 1 (-)
United Left 1 (-)

RedC (changes in comparison with Paddy Power poll last week):

FG 30 (-2)
SF 19 (-1)
FF 18 (-)
Ind/Others/Greens/SP 18 (+1, Greens were at 2 last week)
Lab 15 (+2)

Ipsos/MRBI:

FG 32 (-1)
SF 24 (+3)
FF 17 (+3)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Lab 10 (-3)
Greens 2 (-)

Behaviour & Attitudes:

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
FF 16 (+1)
Lab 14 (-)
Greens 2 (-3)

(B&A now seem to be adjusting the bejazes out of their figures - unadjusted it's FG 33, SF 23, FF 17, Ind/Others 14, Lab 11, Greens 1).