Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

David Norris. *cough*

This.

Well... did i ever think this was going in a different direction... i was going to nominate Stephen Gately

McAleese is stepping down?

Her term has expired.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

When was the last time the Fine Gael candidate did have a chance? 1973?

Yes. But there was no election in 1983 nor 2004.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And here was I hoping that this would turn into the first election in Irish history between two totally unobjectionable candidates. I´m still supporting Norris btw. Oh, and LOL Gay Mitchell.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Sinn Fein will do well in the polls throughout the lifetime of this government, I think that's fairly clear, especially given the shattering of Fianna Fail's credibility. Whether that will translate into success at a General Election...

I think that has been pretty clear since the election.. I just wanted to make my position clear. And besides, I don´t consider SF a ´left-wing´ party. At least they aren´t in the way the Labour party - despite its conservatism - or the ULA are.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What do you have against SF?

How long a history lesson do you want?

Anyway, I still maintain that SF is not really a left-wing party. The similarties between it and what Fianna Fail were in the 20s are, to me at least, very striking.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jesus wept. If Gallagher gets in it would be just typical. Gah.

I think I´m going to return to my state of utter bafflement at the personality judgements (as well as other types of judgements) of the Irish people.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can´t vote, currently not in the country. However, I would have voted -
1. Norris
2. Higgins
****GAP****
3. Mitchell
4. Davis
5. Gallagher
6. McGuinness
***CHASM***
7. Dana

We should also use this thread for the results of the Dublin West by-election, which is also today.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

At the last general election left-wing parties won over 50% of the vote (one of only three or was it four? consitutiences where this occured). So this will be a left seat, the question is really whether it will be a government or opposition-socialist gain (at least that´s the vibes I get from politics.ie. Which is not, however, the most reliable of sources).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

Labour though will get the vast bulk of the FG transfers so it won´t matter (though Coppinger will probably finish second due to SF transfers).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I really doubt it. There will be a lot of non-transferables. The people who still vote FF are those people who think that having Sean Gallagher in the aras is a good idea and those people tend not to heavily preference trotskyites. (This is Brian Lenihan´s vote after all and as far as I know, he dominated in Castleknock, which is the posh end of this constituency).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope.

Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.

I think the fact of Sean Gallagher has many meanings but in terms of Irish electoral politics, it just shows that while the FF "brand" is damaged, the essence is not. The 2011 election was a classic example of people trying to change things as that things stay the same. However, the brand might be tarnished for a while - I suggest the name change and another change of leader would be the best option for FF.

Even so, I don't see the party of ever getting back to pre-2011 levels in Dublin. That a disaster for them of some nature or other there was something that was on the cards for a while and there is simply no room for recovery.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Unless the Euro does collapse and a real apocalypse does occur that makes everything we have gone through so far a stubbed toe in comparison (certainly a possibility), I really don't think either Labour or FG will collapse in the same manner FF did. Simply because nobody can real blame FG or Lab for the disaster so they can play the "We don't want to do this, but TINA" role (Something FF could never sincerely do). In saying that, I didn't think the government would get this unpopular so fast. So maybe I'm talking from the wrong orifice...

Btw, Taoiseach Gerry Adams, seriously?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Giving how crumbly the parliamentary Labour party has been so far.. (it must be a record), I doubt they can really continue like this. But then again I'm probably underestimating the sheer stupidity of the Irish parliamentary centre-left; something I should be inured to by now due to the experience of the Greens.

In saying that, I have to agree with that analysis about the future. However, it remains to be seen how the government will deal with industrial action of any sort.

I shall add, given that I come from my family who knows a quite a lot of people in their 50s or early 60s who work in civil service or public sector type jobs, the amount of people I know who are retiring this year is..... well, predictable.

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Yeah. Real question is whether the government will even survive to 2015-2016.

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We would have to reach the point where guns and liquor would be the same investment (and zombies armies would rule the earth) for those to be the only two choices. I suspect actually if a real big collapse happens, we simply see the country slide into ungovernability as local interests would become pre-dominant in a majority-less dail. More Wallaces and Flanagans, not more Declan Ganleys.

Also, question of the role the ULA will play in the future...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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YOU SHALL NOT MENTION THAT HATERAG "PAPER" IN THIS FORUM EVER AGAIN... EVER!!!!!!1111

Seriously (kind of) though, when the CPA goes up in flames, I'm going to avoid the media pretty much for the whole epoch (though I hope by then I'll be out of the country, so I can avoid wanting to kill things).

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But considering some of the controversy FG have gotten themselves into local issues (ie. Roscommon hospital closure) there is likely to be more leakage from FG itself. It certainly make a minority government pretty insecure (and god, who wants that?)

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I think you are underestimating the incompetence of the Irish right. There is a reason why the feenahs have never had a significant rival to its right before (other than PDs, but given what happened to them, it's almost the exception that proves the rule).

And Quite frankly, the Irish right vote has always gone for dodgy businessmen, I don't think dodgy-ness is the factor that has prevented Ganley's rise up the ranks.

However, it is obvious that now is the moment for a real anti-EU party to form. That fact it hasn't shows at least something... (same the anti-immigration movement, the sentiment exists but the congealment glue does not... I suspect part of this might be down to the essential localism and local tribalism inherit in Irish politics which has allowed idealess parties to so prominent in the first place).

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Indeed. That though applies at this point to practically every party other than SF and perhaps FF (assuming the worst does come to past). The ULA though is brittle for obvious reasons and their ridiculous populist stand on the household charge, well... reveals something about the Irish "left" which perhaps it is not too polite to say out loud.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

I don't.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?

Conceivably. But I think unlikely.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So basically Donegal and working-class Dublin vote no, middle class Dublin likes the thing, and the rest of Ireland swallows the poisonous medicine because their leaders told them to?

Basically. Though working-class Cork and some of the other border counties also seems to be "no" (or at least a lot closer than the national average).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's just absolutely and utterly insane. You'd have thought they'd have learned something from previous experience in government...

1951 was the last time Labour's vote improved after a spell in government.

In saying that, it isn't clear what they can do (that wouldn't instantly collapse the government).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is Burton an ex-Sticky as well?

No but is unlikely to fire up much support among those who have abandoned the party. For that they will at least need to stop the whole 'we are serious people making hard choices' spiel a la FF in 2009 and to try and find an industrial relations policy which isn't, you know, aimed primarily at their core voting group. That would be a start.