Is Obama Finished?

[Kevin]

Like other thread's I've made on this subject, I'm starting to certainly think so. I mean even though the Republican Party is a disorganized mess of perceived extremism, rigged ideology, and infighting, the President is clearly getting the blunt of the blame amongst voters for the worsening condition of the economy. As many things that effect average everyday people and the middle class like the stock market and real estate sectors are in free fall, additionally as we know employment and other areas remain stagnant. While the general mood amongst the public is getting grimier, especially with the news of the past two weeks. Not to mention the booming deficit and credit downgrade.

All while the President seems increasingly inept and unable to respond to any of this. But of course, I digress in the sense that much of this recent news isn't has fault mainly due to the rigidness of the opposition(which is to be expected), but also the increasingly precarious shape of the Eurozone that has also dominated news. Still I get the increasing sense that none of this resonates with the public, thus seen int he Presidents current dreary approval ratings.

This is all some of the reasons why I think if the Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot and choose some like Bachmann or Palin come primary time. The election against Obama in Fall of 2012 won't even be close.

To the Dems on here who say he will play it as Bush's fault, the Republican's are obstructionists etc, he has the resources and so on.

Just ask the 2010 Dems who used all and had all how well that went.         

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

[GLPman]

I wouldn't say he's finished, but his re-election chances are dimmer than ever. Obama has definitely hit a new low, but I'm not sure if this is rock-bottom or not. As an Independent who voted for him in 2008, though, I will say that I am extremely disappointed in his presidency. I'm not going to be voting for the guy in 2012.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I wouldn't say he's finished, but his re-election chances are dimmer than ever. Obama has definitely hit a new low, but I'm not sure if this is rock-bottom or not. As an Independent who voted for him in 2008, though, I will say that I am extremely disappointed in his presidency. I'm not going to be voting for the guy in 2012.

I agree, the deal isnt sealed, but I have been saying it for a long time, and I will say it again, it will be close. Very, Very, Very Close!!

[opebo]

Nope, not finished by a long shot - which is why you see him still winning poll after poll nationally and in the 'swing states' that aught to be swinging back Republican.  Sure, his chances were never good (he is a black), but the fact is, even though voters dislike him, a surprisingly high percentage of them are apparently dimly aware of what the Republican Party is.

[The Vorlon]

The sweetest Electoral College map in living memory

Reagan only lost Minnesota by +/- 5,000 votes as I recall...

I actually don't think Obama is quite toast yet.

Firstly, there is a strong ideological element of Obama's appeal to a segment of the electorate.

Obama represents a certain theory of Government, and morality, and structure of society that these people want to be correct, facts and evidence not withstanding.  The professional left, as evidence of this theory, is now spinning that the Obama stimulus failed not because it was the wrong approach, but because it was too small....  The theory was not flawed, it was simply implemented with an insufficient degree of ideological zeal and intensity...

The Democratic base will not, in my opinion, ever leave him in large numbers.

Polling in a third year of a presidency is also a bit of a mushy matter - when there is not election on the short term horizon, people will say strange things to pollsters as a proxy for discontent.

To use a couple examples from the democratic side, a fairly high % of folks say Obama may or could be a Muslim when you look at the polls.  This is not an expression of true belief but rather a proxy for generalized discontent.  I am sure in 2008 40% of people might have told pollsters that George Bush would bite off the head of cute cuddly kittens and drink their blood as a bedtime snack....  An actual belief? - No, but a proxy expression of discontent.

Back during the Obama/Hillary primary a huge % of Hilary supporters told pollsters they might defect and vote for the GOP candidate - but in reality, the vast, vast majority stayed with Obama in the general election. -

Obama has a slice who "disapprove" from the left and yes they are indeed upset the Debt Ceiling deal contained no new taxes beyond that which is already scheduled to happen, and yes, they are upset that the rate of growth in government has been reduced so that the federal government doubles every 22 years instead of every 18 years....

They might tell a pollster today they disapprove of Obama, but in November 2012, I would be pretty stunned if a meaningful number of them actually pull the trigger and vote for Romney or Perry or Bachmann or Christie.

Lastly, Obama is now the target of specific discontent, which the GOP is the subject of generalized discontent.

During the Debt ceiling Obama was a target that you could pinpoint and identify - He is the President.  On the congressional side, who is to blame? - Reid, Cantor, McConnell, "The Tea Party" - Pelosi, take your pick, there are a zillion plausible targets...

Finally, Obama will have a ton of money to spend in early 2012.  It is not mystery why financial institutions, trial laywers and drug companies have been spared the wrath of Obama so far... they all contribute hugely to his campaign, and Obama will likely spend hundreds of millions defining the GOP candidate before they are even officially nominated....  At the margins (at least) this has to help him.

All things considered, Obama's approvals being 44 or 45% is actually pretty decent when taken in totality.

PS - Additional Comment:

Also, if you look at the trend lines of Obama's approval they are quite volatile - he received fairly substantial (even if short lived) bumps after a deal was reached on a 2 year extension to the bush tax cuts, and another decent bump post Bin-Laden.  For a lot of Independents, they may currently oppose Obama, but that opposition is not locked in - it could change.

Obama's personal favor-ability (as distinct from Job Approval) remains above 50% - In some respects Obama is currently polling much like Reagan did in 1982 - bad job numbers, but decent on leadership, likability, etc....

[LBJer]

Just remember that the time from now until the election in 2012--15 months (well, a little less than that now) is an eternity in politics.  Everyone thought G.H.W. Bush's reelection was assured with victory in the Gulf War in February 1991.  Then came the economic troubles, exemplified by the bumper sticker which said: "Saddam's got his job, how 'bout you?"

[Lief 🗽]

Very likely he is, yes.

[opebo]

The sweetest Electoral College map in living memory

Interestingly, this electoral map has the same cause as the current Depression - Reagan's first term.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

*wall o' text*

Exactly what I meant. People were saying the same thing about Reagan at this time in 1983. Though I'm not saying Obama will win a 49-state landslide (maybe Palin combined with a strong economic uptick and a couple scandals), I don't think that anything is certain. For all we know, Obama could win Wyoming while losing Massachusetts.

[anvi]

Vorlorn,

Excellent analysis!  Very impressive.

[Torie]

Yes, only about 10% of the voters are in real play. The rest is noise. And the one's in play are not members of the Tea Party or the Progressive caucus.

[DrScholl]

At this point, no one should be making any sweeping declarations about the election either way.

[pbrower2a]

The President's approval rating is down because of the Debt Ceiling debate. Any budgeting process is potentially troublesome for any President or Governor, and it is usually the nadir for the federal or state Chief Executive, but such is especially so in a time of political polarization and sharp hardships. Many people are likely to see the budgeting process as a raw deal because few people get what they want. The Hard Right is dissatisfied for not getting a commitment to a Balanced Budget Amendment and further tax cuts for the super-rich; liberals are likely to see the President having compromised some core liberal values to get a compromise. Remember: the budgeting process is the harsh reality that ensure that few of the more grandiose promises to the bases of the two Parties can ever be fully met. If the approval rating for the President is poor, than that for Congress is abysmal.

As other political matters less polarizing than the budget come to the fore, approval ratings for the President and for Congress will rebound some. But how much? The President needs have approval near 50% by November 2012 to win. That is now far closer than the improvement in approval ratings that Congress now has.

Sure, you say. This President is doomed because he is on a downward spiral.  Or is he? I have seen recent polls for two Republican Governors -- Corbett in Pennsylvania and Christie in New Jersey -- for whom approval ratings went up after the state budgetary debates ended. Both were deep in negative territory, and budgetary processes in both states were brutal. State budgets create acrimonious debates, but both Christie and Corbett successfully got away unscathed -- probably because they didn't do the sorts of things from which the disapproval that Governors Snyder (Michigan), Kasich (Ohio), Walker (Wisconsin), and Scott (Florida) have done, which is to give everything possible to right-wing special interests at the expense of everyone else.

If Governors Corbett and Christie can rebound after the budgetary processes are over in their states, then why shouldn't President Obama do much the same?  

Don't expect a trend to continue over more than a very short time.    

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody who declares Obama is either "finished" or "assured to win reelection" is an idiot. With more than 1 year to go to the election, literally everything can happen.

[krazen1211]

Of course he is not finished.

[The Mikado]

It's way way way too early to say.  Call me back in a year.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Would it be too dismissive to respond to this with just a simple "lol"?

Cause, you know, like ... lol.

[Torie]

Would it be too dismissive to respond to this with just a simple "lol"?

Cause, you know, like ... lol.

Yes, but it would not be polite, and with you being a moderator and all, and not Joe Republic or Sam Spade ...  

[Link]

This is all some of the reasons why I think if the Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot and choose some like Bachmann or Palin come primary time. The election against Obama in Fall of 2012 won't even be close.
      

I read this.  Then I immediately stopped reading.  We have enough people on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc giving us their worthless predictions.  We don't need to come onto an internet forum and hear more of the same.  Why do you think Jeb Bush has stayed out of this race?  Why do you think it took so long for people to announce?  Because its going to be a cakewalk?

Have you heard any solid good ideas from the candidates about how they plan on doing a better job than Obama.  Ok, Bachmann's "freedom of choice" light bulb bill.  Anything else?  Oh yes I almost forgot, even more tax breaks for the wealthy.  Perfect.

Anyone predicting a landslide victory or defeat for either party at this point in time is either mentally ill or a partisan hack.

[J. J.]

Obama is obviously not in great shape, but he's not finished by a long shot.

One of the reasons to look at the trough numbers is to see when he stops going down how much he has to build.  You can get very large difference from current approval to election results.

[Mechaman]

This is all some of the reasons why I think if the Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot and choose some like Bachmann or Palin come primary time. The election against Obama in Fall of 2012 won't even be close.
      

I read this.  Then I immediately stopped reading.  We have enough people on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc giving us their worthless predictions.  We don't need to come onto an internet forum and hear more of the same.  Why do you think Jeb Bush has stayed out of this race?  Why do you think it took so long for people to announce?  Because its going to be a cakewalk?

Have you heard any solid good ideas from the candidates about how they plan on doing a better job than Obama.  Ok, Bachmann's "freedom of choice" light bulb bill.  Anything else?  Oh yes I almost forgot, even more tax breaks for the wealthy.  Perfect.

Anyone predicting a landslide victory or defeat for either party at this point in time is either mentally ill or a partisan hack.

I have to agree.
There is too many variables at the moment that make the election uncertain.  Hell, even if Obama's term in office sucks he could still win if the Republicans nominate a lackluster candidate.

But yeah, if this election was for sure going to the opposition they would've been more energized.  I mean look at 2008: the top runners were already in it by at least the Congressional Elections of 2006.

[Mehmentum]

Obama will never be finished if Bachmann or Perry have a shot at the nomination. 

[NVGonzalez]

Would it be too dismissive to respond to this with just a simple "lol"?

Cause, you know, like ... lol.

[courts]

Probably.. Unless the Republican does something exceptionally stupid. I've been saying for 2 years this sort of scenario would happen once all that stimulus we kept injecting ran its course and the actual fundamentals of the economy started to expose themselves.