Is Obama Finished?

[Bacon King]

Of course Obama isn't finished. Say what you will about him as President, but he's nothing if not an excellent campaigner. He's already amassing a campaign warchest that he'll be using to positively define himself to the electorate before the GOP even decides it's nominee. Expect more of the same stuff from the '08 campaign- another Superbowl commercial, and probably another campaign infomercial type thing on primetime TV that'll include a bunch of photogenic average Americans talking about how much Obama's Presidency has improved their lives, or something.

Not that Obama will be easily reelected, of course, especially because the GOP nominee this time will almost certainly turn down public financing, not to mention the corporate money that'll come in in the aftermath of the Citizen's United case (although analysis I've read indicates it won't benefit the GOP that much more than the Democrats). I'm just saying, counting Obama out before the campaign has even started is a little bit silly.

[Nym90]

The sweetest Electoral College map in living memory

Reagan only lost Minnesota by +/- 5,000 votes as I recall...

I actually don't think Obama is quite toast yet.

Firstly, there is a strong ideological element of Obama's appeal to a segment of the electorate.

Obama represents a certain theory of Government, and morality, and structure of society that these people want to be correct, facts and evidence not withstanding.  The professional left, as evidence of this theory, is now spinning that the Obama stimulus failed not because it was the wrong approach, but because it was too small....  The theory was not flawed, it was simply implemented with an insufficient degree of ideological zeal and intensity...

The Democratic base will not, in my opinion, ever leave him in large numbers.

Polling in a third year of a presidency is also a bit of a mushy matter - when there is not election on the short term horizon, people will say strange things to pollsters as a proxy for discontent.

To use a couple examples from the democratic side, a fairly high % of folks say Obama may or could be a Muslim when you look at the polls.  This is not an expression of true belief but rather a proxy for generalized discontent.  I am sure in 2008 40% of people might have told pollsters that George Bush would bite off the head of cute cuddly kittens and drink their blood as a bedtime snack....  An actual belief? - No, but a proxy expression of discontent.

Back during the Obama/Hillary primary a huge % of Hilary supporters told pollsters they might defect and vote for the GOP candidate - but in reality, the vast, vast majority stayed with Obama in the general election. -

Obama has a slice who "disapprove" from the left and yes they are indeed upset the Debt Ceiling deal contained no new taxes beyond that which is already scheduled to happen, and yes, they are upset that the rate of growth in government has been reduced so that the federal government doubles every 22 years instead of every 18 years....

They might tell a pollster today they disapprove of Obama, but in November 2012, I would be pretty stunned if a meaningful number of them actually pull the trigger and vote for Romney or Perry or Bachmann or Christie.

Lastly, Obama is now the target of specific discontent, which the GOP is the subject of generalized discontent.

During the Debt ceiling Obama was a target that you could pinpoint and identify - He is the President.  On the congressional side, who is to blame? - Reid, Cantor, McConnell, "The Tea Party" - Pelosi, take your pick, there are a zillion plausible targets...

Finally, Obama will have a ton of money to spend in early 2012.  It is not mystery why financial institutions, trial laywers and drug companies have been spared the wrath of Obama so far... they all contribute hugely to his campaign, and Obama will likely spend hundreds of millions defining the GOP candidate before they are even officially nominated....  At the margins (at least) this has to help him.

All things considered, Obama's approvals being 44 or 45% is actually pretty decent when taken in totality.

PS - Additional Comment:

Also, if you look at the trend lines of Obama's approval they are quite volatile - he received fairly substantial (even if short lived) bumps after a deal was reached on a 2 year extension to the bush tax cuts, and another decent bump post Bin-Laden.  For a lot of Independents, they may currently oppose Obama, but that opposition is not locked in - it could change.

Obama's personal favor-ability (as distinct from Job Approval) remains above 50% - In some respects Obama is currently polling much like Reagan did in 1982 - bad job numbers, but decent on leadership, likability, etc....

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/holtz_eakin.html

The above link is good reading for those arguing the stimulus failed.

But otherwise, yes I agree that an incumbent President has certain advantages that can't be discounted. At his current level of approval (low 40's), he'd almost certainly still beat someone like Bachmann, but would probably lose to Romney. Once the GOP has a clearly defined nominee, I agree that progressives who currently disapprove or are ambivalent will be likely to come back to the President.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not by a long-shot.

Especially if the GOP shoots one of the most spectacular own-goals in US political history...

[mondale84]

This is all some of the reasons why I think if the Republicans don't shoot themselves in the foot and choose some like Bachmann or Palin come primary time. The election against Obama in Fall of 2012 won't even be close.
      

I read this.  Then I immediately stopped reading.  We have enough people on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc giving us their worthless predictions.  We don't need to come onto an internet forum and hear more of the same.  Why do you think Jeb Bush has stayed out of this race?  Why do you think it took so long for people to announce?  Because its going to be a cakewalk?

Have you heard any solid good ideas from the candidates about how they plan on doing a better job than Obama.  Ok, Bachmann's "freedom of choice" light bulb bill.  Anything else?  Oh yes I almost forgot, even more tax breaks for the wealthy.  Perfect.

Anyone predicting a landslide victory or defeat for either party at this point in time is either mentally ill or a partisan hack.

[zorkpolitics]

No, he's not finished.  If the economy rebounds dramatically he gets credit and will be re-elected.
But if things next summer are like this summer, he will eb done, despite a massive campaign wat chest.
After all to most voters Obama's record so far is mostly about failure (and why his approval is in the low 40's):
Unemployment up
Gas prices up
% think country in wrong direction up
Deficit over $1 trillion
Debt nearly doubled
3! wars on going
Dow down
AAA rating downgraded
Confidence down

[The Vorlon]

No, he's not finished.  If the economy rebounds dramatically he gets credit and will be re-elected.
But if things next summer are like this summer, he will eb done, despite a massive campaign wat chest.
After all to most voters Obama's record so far is mostly about failure (and why his approval is in the low 40's):
Unemployment up
Gas prices up
% think country in wrong direction up
Deficit over $1 trillion
Debt nearly doubled
3! wars on going
Dow down
AAA rating downgraded
Confidence down

To be fair, while it is true that Obama has racked up more debt in three years than George Bush did in 8, it would require a second term for Obama to "Double" the debt - if he is a one term president it will "only" have increased by about 50%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No, he's not finished.  If the economy rebounds dramatically he gets credit and will be re-elected.
But if things next summer are like this summer, he will eb done, despite a massive campaign wat chest.
After all to most voters Obama's record so far is mostly about failure (and why his approval is in the low 40's):
Unemployment up
Gas prices up
% think country in wrong direction up
Deficit over $1 trillion
Debt nearly doubled
3! wars on going
Dow down
AAA rating downgraded
Confidence down

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/us/politics/05poll.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Obama_GOP_062911_7am.pdf

[anvi]

I realize I'm flying in the face of the attacks on government spending and piling on Obama here.  But I think a lot of this stuff deserves qualification.

Approvals in the low '40's a year and four months from an election does not spell doom.  Bush had a polled job approval average of about 48.5% when he beat Kerry.  So, it matters who the opponent is.  The really important number is not the job approval number by itself, but the unemployment and the right-track, wrong direction numbers.

Gas prices are starting to ease, and they will continue to ease in the next several months because winter-grade is cheaper.  This fact will also apply to the fall of 2012.

At the moment, in the short term, even most Republicans think we have to continue deficit spending for a while, even as we slowly curb spending.  I have as many critiques of the stimulus bill and the financial regulation bill as the next guy.  But, in the midst of a huge recession, failing banks, collapsing industries, plummeting demand and a persistently depressed labor market, government has to borrow, unless it either prints money (a horrible idea) or raises taxes (which Republicans oppose).  Indeed, it even makes economic sense to borrow money in these circumstances.  You could of course refuse to deficit spend too, and reduce the federal budget by 41% immediately, but good luck with that, as you would rightfully get hoisted out on your petard by the voters in 2012 in revenge for crushing them like bugs and crippling lots of other day-to-day stuff the country needs to be working.

The two wars are in the process of being scaled down, and the other war, at least for the moment, for us involves refueling aircraft.

The idea that Obama is solely to blame for the credit downgrade is a ludicrous fallacy, and belied by what S&P said its justifications for the downgrade were, and who, the president or the Congress, is polling worse at the moment.

Confidence is down, but this has far more to do with the terrible cycle of depressed demand and uncertainty, which have many factors, among which marginal tax rates are not a major one. In fact, where has the money gone which was offered the business sector last December in the form of extended tax cuts gone?  In the stash, that's where, which, by the way, was entirely expectable.  Of all uncertainties, marginal tax rates in the next few years have a range of possibilities that are not hard to calculate, compared to the other incalculables on the economic table.  Indeed, given the immediate likelihood of marginal rate cuts to be recommended by the "Supercommittee" that would allow businesses to invest toward opportunity and not around the tax code, there is not unreasonable ground for business optimism about future tax rates at the moment. 

On top of it all, blaming all the economic woes of the whole country on the president of the United States, regardless of who he or she is, isn't reasonable. 

The trump card, of course, is that voters struggle to be reasonable, and when assigning blame, the prez is always the easiest target.  And that's why, in the end, one of the above is meant to deny that, should the economy be in the same shape as it is now late next year, Obama stands in immanent danger of losing his job.

[J. J.]

Approvals in the low '40's a year and four months from an election does not spell doom.  Bush had a polled job approval average of about 48.5% when he beat Kerry.  So, it matters who the opponent is.  The really important number is not the job approval number by itself, but the unemployment and the right-track, wrong direction numbers.

In terms of poll numbers, the one concerning element is that Obama is basically not improving, at least as of last week.

It is my "von Kluck's turn" analogy.  We really have not seen Obama's numbers toward the more positive numbers.  That might change at any time, but, excepting George W. Bush, who had substantially higher numbers, no president has seen still declining numbers at the start of August.

[Bull Moose Base]

Approvals in the low '40's a year and four months from an election does not spell doom.  Bush had a polled job approval average of about 48.5% when he beat Kerry.  So, it matters who the opponent is.  The really important number is not the job approval number by itself, but the unemployment and the right-track, wrong direction numbers.

In terms of poll numbers, the one concerning element is that Obama is basically not improving, at least as of last week.

It is my "von Kluck's turn" analogy.  We really have not seen Obama's numbers toward the more positive numbers.  That might change at any time, but, excepting George W. Bush, who had substantially higher numbers, no president has seen still declining numbers at the start of August.

I don't see how it'd matter if his approval were unchanged through August 2012 (or even down and back before then).  If they climbed five points in the 3 months after that, he'd be in pretty good shape.   At this point, his approval is primarily a function of the economy, but the deeper into the election we get the more it'll also be affected by the campaign.

[The Vorlon]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

Grey Davis got re-elected Governor of California with a 38% approval rating.  Lincoln Chaffee lost his senate seat in 2006 with a 61% approval rating.

When GWBush beat Ann Richards for the Texas Governorship in 1994, she had approvals near 70%.


Right Track/Wrong track is quite predictive for re-election, and right now that track is pretty brutal for Obama.

Best guess is that unless in fall of 2012 Obama is sub 40% (in which case he is toast) or higher than 50% (in which case he looks good) then 2012 looks like a tactical race where the campaign will actually matter...

We will see if Obama's Tragic Misery Bus tour gets him any traction in the next few days....

[The Vorlon]

On top of it all, blaming all the economic woes of the whole country on the president of the United States, regardless of who he or she is, isn't reasonable. 

The trump card, of course, is that voters struggle to be reasonable, and when assigning blame, the prez is always the easiest target.  And that's why, in the end, one of the above is meant to deny that, should the economy be in the same shape as it is now late next year, Obama stands in immanent danger of losing his job.

For good or ill the President is the "quarterback" of the team.  When things are good, they get way more credit than they deserve, when things go bad, they get way more blame than they deserve... --- just the way it is.

Regarding the economy.....

Think long and hard about the Fed's announcement that for two more years (ie till past the 2012 election) they plan to keep interest rates as (more or less) zero.....

Can you present any explanation other than concluding there will be weak to negative growth during that time period? -

Between the stimulus spending ending, and the possible expiration of the payroll tax holiday ending plus continued pullbacks at the state and local level..... explain to me how the economy gets better in the next 16 months...?

[WillK]

The problem I see with using Obama's approval numbers is voters like me.
When recently polled I said I did not approve of the job he was doing.
But my position is that he has not been tough enough with the GOP, the stimulus was too small, healthcare reform wasn't comprehensive enough, he extended the Bush tax cuts, etc.
So there is no chance that my lack of approval of Obama translates into a vote for the GOP
 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

A year is a long time in politics, but I don't see how he recovers back to a steady ~50% approval rating. He may hit that mark again, but remaining constantly there or thereabouts looks pretty unlikely as we stand now. We all know the economy, and the unemployment number (how it's trending, and if any real progress has been made) will determine the election, and with it forecast not to improve that drastically between now and Nov 2012, he pretty much has no chance.

He's been very lucky to have evaded the upper 30s for approval for this long, but I think the floor has finally dropped out of him, and people are finally fed up.

Imagine if this was George Bush - his approval would be further tanked. Obama is one lucky guy, and saying he's lucky with an approval rating at 39% for today speaks volumes.

[J. J.]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

[milhouse24]

His ratings will go up once we actually kill the real Bin Laden instead of a fake, and we defeat the al quada in Iraq and Afganistan.

[Link]

A year is a long time in politics, but I don't see how he recovers back to a steady ~50% approval rating. He may hit that mark again, but remaining constantly there or thereabouts looks pretty unlikely as we stand now. We all know the economy, and the unemployment number (how it's trending, and if any real progress has been made) will determine the election, and with it forecast not to improve that drastically between now and Nov 2012, he pretty much has no chance.

He's been very lucky to have evaded the upper 30s for approval for this long, but I think the floor has finally dropped out of him, and people are finally fed up.

Imagine if this was George Bush - his approval would be further tanked. Obama is one lucky guy, and saying he's lucky with an approval rating at 39% for today speaks volumes.

Your pronouncements and predictions are baseless.  Obama is doing a decent job with what he's been given and there is a certain reasonable section of society that realizes that.  If he has people like Bachmann trying to send the US government into default its all the guy can do to keep the country afloat.

The reason approval ratings at this point are almost worthless is all you need is an uptick in the economy and a dip in unemployment and Obama's numbers will go up.  That is a fact.  Now I KNOW you can't predict what the economy will be doing a year from now.  I know Republicans hope and pray America won't be doing well but the rest of us actually hope things will improve.

The other problem is if you disapprove of Obama who are you going to vote for?  None of the Republicans have said how they intend to create more jobs than Obama.  Oh, I almost forgot, they have advocated for even more tax breaks for the rich.

The truth is this far out no one knows.  Its wide open.

[Link]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

These are like useless football statistics.  You know...  No team has come back from a 2 touch down deficit this late in the third quarter when its snowing on a Monday in Buffalo and then gone on to with the NFC title game.  You can contort the numbers any way you want, but I can tell you you can't call the game a year in advance.

[exopolitician]

Considering the fact that Obama's approvals are the worse of his administration currently yet he is still besting all the GOP candidates in states like Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado...I'm kinda leaning towards no.

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

No.  I think Obama is assured at least 200 EVs in the next election unless unemployment hits 12-13%.  With close to 150 tossup EVs, he definitely still has a chance.

[Bull Moose Base]

On top of it all, blaming all the economic woes of the whole country on the president of the United States, regardless of who he or she is, isn't reasonable. 

The trump card, of course, is that voters struggle to be reasonable, and when assigning blame, the prez is always the easiest target.  And that's why, in the end, one of the above is meant to deny that, should the economy be in the same shape as it is now late next year, Obama stands in immanent danger of losing his job.

For good or ill the President is the "quarterback" of the team.  When things are good, they get way more credit than they deserve, when things go bad, they get way more blame than they deserve... --- just the way it is.

I like the analogy alright but disagree with the conclusion.  I think fans usually have an easy time noticing when an offensive line isn't protecting a QB, receivers are dropping passes or the defense is blowing leads.  And with the approvals of the GOP and congress lower than Obama's, I think there are signs he is not bearing the brunt of the blame.  Or even the blunt.  Maybe the Allen Bfunt though. 

[J. J.]

There is a limited usefulness to job approval ratings.

George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004 with a "Real Clear Politics" average of about 48.5% - Now a lot of those polls were adults and RVs, and a Republican typically does a couple points better at the ballot box than in a RV or Adults poll, while a democrat does a couple points worse. - It IS worth noting that in the 2004 exit polls GWB got a 51% approval rating which almost exactly match his actual vote total.

That being said, there are a ton of examples where a job approval rating either way above or way below 50% did not produce the expected electoral outcome.

I do look at it historically, however.  GWB was at 60% on Gallup at this point in 2003; Clinton and Reagan were both higher, though both were in the mid-40's, at the same point.  Of all the presidents since Nixon, all, save Carter, were higher than Obama.  All, except GWB, had been off their low points, and his low point was still higher than Obama's current number.

These are like useless football statistics.  You know...  No team has come back from a 2 touch down deficit this late in the third quarter when its snowing on a Monday in Buffalo and then gone on to with the NFC title game.  You can contort the numbers any way you want, but I can tell you you can't call the game a year in advance.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

There is no calling, just looking at the history.  The picture recurs:

[J. J.]

I know how you "look" at things.  We were all subjected to your pointless ramblings about the stock market last week.  We all did fine by just ignoring you and holding our stocks.  I don't see why your predictions about an election that is over a year away are going to be any more accurate.

Apparently, you don't comprehend how things "look."  These are very straightforward numbers.


[/quote]
A poll number two months before an election is not the same thing as an approval rating over a year before an election.  Your strawman was a noble but ultimately futile effort.
[/quote]

I look toward the long term, for patterns occurring over decades.  The numbers simple are.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, this isn't 20 years ago, but interestingly, GHWB, while his numbers were higher, was in a similar situation.  His numbers were, even then, declining.  He had further to fall.  How did GHWB's second term go, Link?

That is the thing everyone should be looking at with his Gallup numbers, not how down is Obama going, but when does he start to rebound?  And yes, Link, I'm expecting a rebound.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Ask this question again in, say, late October 2012.

[J. J.]

Ask this question again in, say, late October 2012.

If he's at 39% in October 2012, I already know the answer.