Is Obama Finished?

[rwoy]

If the Republicans could produce a serious candidate then maybe they would have a chance.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

A year is a long time in politics, but I don't see how he recovers back to a steady ~50% approval rating. He may hit that mark again, but remaining constantly there or thereabouts looks pretty unlikely as we stand now. We all know the economy, and the unemployment number (how it's trending, and if any real progress has been made) will determine the election, and with it forecast not to improve that drastically between now and Nov 2012, he pretty much has no chance.

He's been very lucky to have evaded the upper 30s for approval for this long, but I think the floor has finally dropped out of him, and people are finally fed up.

Imagine if this was George Bush - his approval would be further tanked. Obama is one lucky guy, and saying he's lucky with an approval rating at 39% for today speaks volumes.

Your pronouncements and predictions are baseless.  Obama is doing a decent job with what he's been given and there is a certain reasonable section of society that realizes that.  If he has people like Bachmann trying to send the US government into default its all the guy can do to keep the country afloat.

The reason approval ratings at this point are almost worthless is all you need is an uptick in the economy and a dip in unemployment and Obama's numbers will go up.  That is a fact.  Now I KNOW you can't predict what the economy will be doing a year from now.  I know Republicans hope and pray America won't be doing well but the rest of us actually hope things will improve.

The other problem is if you disapprove of Obama who are you going to vote for?  None of the Republicans have said how they intend to create more jobs than Obama.  Oh, I almost forgot, they have advocated for even more tax breaks for the rich.

The truth is this far out no one knows.  Its wide open.

It's not baseless at all. I said from day 1 I joined this forum that the unemployment number and trend will predict if he gets a second term. With economists saying it will stay above 8% makes it difficult for Obama. If it's exactly at 8% as we head into the election, I think he wins (The number is bad, but the trend is pretty strong). But 8.5%+ will be very difficult, and certainly impossible at 9%+ for him to win.

So when you see just 26% of people support his job on the economy, which is the number one issue of the electorate right now, it only compounds his problem and shows that he is very lucky indeed to be holding a ~40% approval rating. Remember, the approval rating is misleading as it takes into account potential biases (people perhaps not wanting to be seen as racist - even if they aren't - to pollsters, so will give him a more positive view than they would in the privacy of the voting booth, etc) and factors in his likeability as a person. I would venture to guess that Obama's true job approval is below 40%.....

Lastly, campaigns and candidates hardly matter in presidential elections. I'm getting sick of typing that sentence again and again.

Barring an economic miracle, the guy should begin packing his bag - and I don't mean for Martha's Vineyard....

[Link]

Lastly, campaigns and candidates hardly matter in presidential elections.

Whatever gets you to sleep at night.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So when you see just 26% of people support his job on the economy, which is the number one issue of the electorate right now, it only compounds his problem and shows that he is very lucky indeed to be holding a ~40% approval rating.

I agree with this.  His approval rating is still around 40% because he is likeable as a person and because he's "only" been on the job 2.5 years.  But by Nov 2012, people will be judging his performance much more than his likability, and his economic and overall approval ratings will begin to merge.

And if the unemployment rate is still 9.xx, he will lose, and lose badly, regardless if the GOP nominee is Bachmann/Christie/Perry/Romney/Ryan.

[Link]

So when you see just 26% of people support his job on the economy, which is the number one issue of the electorate right now, it only compounds his problem and shows that he is very lucky indeed to be holding a ~40% approval rating.

I agree with this.  His approval rating is still around 40% because he is likeable as a person and because he's "only" been on the job 2.5 years.  But by Nov 2012, people will be judging his performance much more than his likability, and his economic and overall approval ratings will begin to merge.

And if the unemployment rate is still 9.xx, he will lose, and lose badly, regardless if the GOP nominee is Bachmann/Christie/Perry/Romney/Ryan.

While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

if the economic collapse had happened in the Fall of 2006, with Obama entering office in Jan 2009, then Obama could have some insulation from economic responsibility (e.g. FDR entering office in Jan 1933, >2 years after the implosion).  But Obama was elected just 1 month after the collapse and entered office just 3 months after it...he's much more vunerable, esp in an age of 24 news cycles, than FDR was in 1936.

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan. If you think that he will be, then you dont understand how long, on a political timescale, we are from Nov 2012...because if the rate is still around 9.0, his job approval is going to be around 30% if not lower.

[Link]

While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

well, picture a debate setting in late Oct 2012 with unemployment at 9.x and Obama's approval at 30%, and male Obama being taken to task by a female Bachmann for making things worse and not taking responsibility for his failures....and basically accusing Obama for not manning up and using the phrases "be a man" and "take responsibility" in every other sentence.

She'd cut his balls off.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

[TheGlobalizer]

Of course, Obama is only finished if the GOP puts up an adequately likeable and capable candidate.

See: John Kerry, Bob Dole, George McGovern, etc.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

While I do not wish for the unemployment rate to be 9% or Bachmann to be the Republican nominee I would love to make a side bet with you if both things occur.  The Ryan bet would be a nice one as well.  I don't know enough about Perry yet but if he continues the way has been going I would take you up on that as well.

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

I have a B.A. in Political Science. Take that for what it's worth. If unemployment is at 9%+ come election day 2012, the likes of Palin/Bachmann, etc would win (I'm no supporter of them, mind). Seriously, presidential campaigns only matter if the election is very very close (think Gore/Bush), or if one candidate runs a campaign and the other doesn't (that's why campaigns still occur - it's almost like a prisoner's dilemma).

I don't care what the polls say now and who Obama would defeat or whatever. The simple truth is if unemployment is this high this time next year, Obama is done for no matter who the candidate is. Write that down, and watch this space.

[Link]

He simply wont be reelected if the unemployment rate is 9.xx come Nov 2012, even against Bachmann (who is VERY underrated and would maul Obama in the debates) or Ryan.

I... I... don't even know what to say to that.

well, picture a debate setting in late Oct 2012 with unemployment at 9.x and Obama's approval at 30%, and male Obama being taken to task by a female Bachmann for making things worse and not taking responsibility for his failures....and basically accusing Obama for not manning up and using the phrases "be a man" and "take responsibility" in every other sentence.

She'd cut his balls off.

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.  I do not have intimate knowledge of the lowest common denominator.  So I will have to yield to your expertise in that area.  Maybe I have been looking at this the wrong way... that WOULD explain Perry's behavior as of late.

One thing I can say is I do recall one "female" who told a gentleman to "man up" as you put it.  She lost.

The really ironic part, that didn't seem to be picked up by the media, was the man she told to "man up" was actually a boxer!  He served as a running mate for his boxing coach when his coach ran for governor.  Man up indeed!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

yeah, and she's smart enough (and more than willing) to castrate him in each opening sentence and then use the very next sentence to pitch her solution...it would be like Reagan's "there you go again (which everyone understand meant that Carter wasn't accepting responsibility)...[but here's what I would do]", but instead it would be "[you're not even man enough to take responsiblity for your failures], but here is my solution..."

Obama HAS to defend his record (and if UE rate is 9.x, it will be extremely difficult to defend), after all he is running for reelection and must give a reason why he should be reelected.  He would be so damaged by a woman questioning his willingness to take responsibility, he'd have to send out Michelle to defend his manhood...which would only make him look weaker.

If I were Obama, I wouldn't want Bachmann after my balls, for she could damage his stature more than Perry/Ryan/Romney/Christie combined.  And she's exactly the type that would go after his balls.

[Link]

Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

yeah, and she's smart enough (and more than willing) to castrate him in each opening sentence and then use the very next sentence to pitch her solution...

If I were Obama, I wouldn't want Bachmann after my balls, for she could damage his stature more than Perry/Ryan/Romney/Christie combined.  And she's exactly the type that would go after his balls.

At least now everybody knows the type of person we are dealing with.

[J. J.]

Like that Picture of her eating that hotdog but it wont be a hot dog

yeah, and she's smart enough (and more than willing) to castrate him in each opening sentence and then use the very next sentence to pitch her solution...

If I were Obama, I wouldn't want Bachmann after my balls, for she could damage his stature more than Perry/Ryan/Romney/Christie combined.  And she's exactly the type that would go after his balls.

At least now everybody knows the type of person we are dealing with.

Yes, effective, not impotent.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

She'd cut his balls off.[/b][/size]

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

she does NOT have to be crass, just like Reagan wasn't crass when he basically repeatedly called Carter a puss by simply repeatedly saying "there you go again..."   The important thing is whether the audience gets the point, as it did in 1980.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that she could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I'm just saying don't underestimate the damage she could do against a man not willing to own up to his failures

[Link]

She'd cut his balls off.

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that should could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I think we just gained further insight into the mind of another forum poster.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

She'd probably try to rape him on stage. After all, we know that Marcus hasn't ed her in years, and she likely needs sexual attention to survive for another couple years.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think we just gained further insight into the mind of another forum poster.

I'm just saying that when a man is trying to run away from responsibility, and everyone knows it, the most damaging thing would be having a woman publically pointing out the fact that you're not man enough to own up to your failures.  

that's every man's worse nightmare and would be understood by everyone watching on TV

[sentinel]

Am I finished with my waffle?

[specific_name]

She'd cut his balls off.[/b][/size]

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

she does NOT have to be crass, just like Reagan wasn't crass when he basically repeatedly called Carter a puss by simply repeatedly saying "there you go again..."   The important thing is whether the audience gets the point, as it did in 1980.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that she could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I'm just saying don't underestimate the damage she could do against a man not willing to own up to his failures

You were saying the same things about Palin when she was picked for the VP slot and we all know how well that worked out. Bachmann is Palin 2.0 and won't win a general election even if the current situation gets worse.

[Link]

She'd cut his balls off.[/b][/size]

Oh, I see.  Yes I suppose that kind of crass language plays well with a certain segment of society.  You are right.  If she used that kind of language she should be referred to with the broad term "female" because "lady" would not be applicable.

she does NOT have to be crass, just like Reagan wasn't crass when he basically repeatedly called Carter a puss by simply repeatedly saying "there you go again..."   The important thing is whether the audience gets the point, as it did in 1980.

And Bachmann is smart enough and quick enough on her toes that she could castrate him on national TV without even referring to his scrotum.  And she already has a history of referring to a male opponent's manhood (e.g. Christ Matthews)

I'm just saying don't underestimate the damage she could do against a man not willing to own up to his failures

You were saying the same things about Palin when she was picked for the VP slot and we all know how well that worked out. Bachmann is Palin 2.0 and won't win a general election even if the current situation gets worse.

Time machine.

Nice finishing move.  These threads have been peppered with such extreme proclamations that its going to be a field day if Obama wins in '12.  If Obama wins I'm going to be doing my own H. G. Wells impression.