How likely is this map?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

where is the option for "next to nil"?

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

If my governor Rick Perry runs?  Excluding Georgia possibly.  The west looks sound.  New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada.  In 2010 Rick Perry lost the hispanic vote to Bill White, his Democratic opponent, 60-to-40.

In 2010 Rick Perry couldn't even get back to the 55-45 margin George W Bush experienced nationally in 2004 and 2010 included the GOP wave!

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

60-40 would be great for the GOP. And Bush won 51-48 nationally.

It would be great, and even in the biggest wave year for either party in decades Perry couldn't even get to the George W Bush level of support in the hispanic community.  Bush over-performed with the hispanic vote and only lost it by 10 percentage points nationally, had he lost it by 20 points it could have been enough to change that outcome.  Don't worry, that 20 point margin will go up to 25 or more in 2012.

Edit:  I got my numbers wrong.  According to CNN exit polls Perry lost the Hispanic vote 61-38.  In 2010 McCain lost it 63-35.  Meaning in the best GOP election cycle in decades the GOP only shifted the vote by about 3 points or less.   Perry is weak there and it could cost him in the west.

[exopolitician]

Quite unlikely, but I guess possible in specific circumstances.

[NVGonzalez]

Quite unlikely, but I guess possible in specific circumstances.

[Del Tachi]

If Bachmann or Paul are the nominees

[Mehmentum]

If the nominee isn't Romney a map resembling this is very likely.  I can't see Romney doing that badly. 

[Bull Moose Base]

It's almost the 2008 map when Obama won by 7 nationally.  It just has MO and IN flipped (both were virtually tied) plus GA to Obama.  Obama might need unemployment down a point in the next year and some to win by 7 again.  Seems fairly likely but who knows.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Bush over-performed with the hispanic vote and only lost it by 10 percentage points nationally, had he lost it by 20 points it could have been enough to change that outcome.

Bush probably did lose the '04 Hispanic vote by 20 points, or close to it. Most studies of the Hispanic vote post-election concluded that exit polls inflated Bush's numbers by at least a few points.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Obama might need unemployment down a point in the next year and some to win by 7 again.  Seems fairly likely but who knows.

Eh, I don't think there are many economists who forecast that unemployment is going to be down that much, even if we avert a double dip.

Anyway, I voted the third option because Bachmann still has a shot.

[Penelope]

Pretty likely. It's becoming clear that Romney is an overrated candidate.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

60-40 would be great for the GOP. And Bush won 51-48 nationally.

It would be great, and even in the biggest wave year for either party in decades Perry couldn't even get to the George W Bush level of support in the hispanic community.  Bush over-performed with the hispanic vote and only lost it by 10 percentage points nationally, had he lost it by 20 points it could have been enough to change that outcome.  Don't worry, that 20 point margin will go up to 25 or more in 2012.

Edit:  I got my numbers wrong.  According to CNN exit polls Perry lost the Hispanic vote 61-38.  In 2010 McCain lost it 63-35.  Meaning in the best GOP election cycle in decades the GOP only shifted the vote by about 3 points or less.   Perry is weak there and it could cost him in the west.

I misread your initial post about GWB's 2004 numbers. Yeah, I don't think that's happening again, unless social issues take a bigger part in the campaign, which would be disastrous for the GOP anyway.

[Frodo]

It's what an Obama/Biden re-election victory would look like (at least from a more conservative perspective) if the economy cooperated, and the unemployment rate went down below 7% by November 2012.

[Bull Moose Base]

It's what an Obama/Biden re-election victory would look like (at least from a more conservative perspective) if the economy cooperated, and the unemployment rate went down below 7% by November 2012.

I'd bet Obama could get this map against Romney with unemployment still above 8.

[Lief 🗽]

If the economy improves slightly and Bachmann is the candidate and she runs a poor campaign and Obama runs a good campaign, then this map is a possibility.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If Bachmann or Paul are the nominees

More like if Mitt is the nominee. Paul would beat Obama

[zorkpolitics]

Well I can't imagine Obama winning more in 2012 than in 2008, at a minimum he will lose NC and IN. so this is a very unlikely map.

In contrast, if the economy worsens I think this is a possible map:

Obama 186  GOP nominee 352

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Bachmann or Paul are the nominees

More like if Mitt is the nominee. Paul would beat Obama

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Possible

[auburntiger]

I say not likely. Indiana is gone and the only realistic shots of pickups (MO, AZ, and GA) aren't likely to switch. I think Florida is more likely to fall republican than NC, OH, or VA. He was never that popular in Florida to begin with. Virginia will be the pivotal state this time and could be more Dem than IA & NH this time.

Right now, my map has Obama losing IN, FL, OH, NC, NH, and NE-02 (btw, are they still going to vote by district, or has the R-legislature overturned that?) Obama winning 281-257 against Romney.

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, wisconsin, ennsylvania, Virginia and maybe Michigan and Maine-02 are potential switches depending how things look this time next year.

[TheGlobalizer]

Quite unlikely, but I guess possible in specific circumstances.