HI-01: Djou's back, for some reason

[redcommander]

SPOILER ALERT: He loses.

Not if Ed Case get's his way.

[redcommander]

The lesson of the 2010 elections are clear enough: the heartland of America has had enough of the Democrats, while the two coasts haven't had enough, yet.

Who is to say that 2012 will not see the Republican wave extend into the two coasts?

Not even close to being true. The heartland voters are regretting electing Republicans.

The Coasts might be more receptive though, especially the West Coast. Remember Democrats control the governorships in Washington, Oregon, and California. The party will receive the blame in those states if conditions worsen.

[redcommander]

The lesson of the 2010 elections are clear enough: the heartland of America has had enough of the Democrats, while the two coasts haven't had enough, yet.

Who is to say that 2012 will not see the Republican wave extend into the two coasts?

Not even close to being true. The heartland voters are regretting electing Republicans.

The Coasts might be more receptive though, especially the West Coast. Remember Democrats control the governorships in Washington, Oregon, and California. The party will receive the blame in those states if conditions worsen.

WA- Yes, what you said is kinda true here with regards to Gregoire. Still, the Gubernatorial will likely be a tossup until next November. I still expect Dems to control both chambers, the Congressional delegation and both Senate seats in 2012.

OR- Even with Kulongski deeply unpopular, Dems held the his seat. OR will continue to trend Democratic.

CA- CA, DE and WV were the only states where the state legislatures got more Democratic last year. Even with the bad economy, Brown was elected, Dems didn't lose any House seats and an otherwise mediocre Democratic Senator won by 10 points.  I don't see the GOP making any tangible inroads in CA.

The two seats Democrats picked up in the CA legislature aren't really a good indicator of strength for the Democrats. One of them was in the Central Valley where a renegade Democrat who became an Independent retired, and his seat was "retaken" by the Democrats. The other was in a place where the Republican candidate was highly involved in the Yes on Prop 8 campaign, and that was basically the entire focus of his opponent's campaign. Republicans could have picked up state legislature seats, and in the congressional delegation had they not agreed to that horrible gerrymander back in 2001. So yes, I do think the GOP can pick up ground in California in 2012, considering they can't really go much lower than they are right now politically. Dudley lost in Oregon mainly because he couldn't close the gap in Portland, and Wyden faced a challenger who lost steam as the campaign went on. Republicans actually picked up seats in both house of the Oregon legislature. Washington will definitely be competitive, and Republicans could gain ground there. The Democrats' wave in 2006 wasn't exactly strong in every state either, and yet in 2008 they picked up even more ground.

[redcommander]

If Republicans thought they could pick up ground in California in 2012, they wouldn't be trying to overturn the maps. Had it not been for the current gerrymander, Republicans would have even less seats than do now.

I thought they were only trying to overturn the state senate map? The party has basically accepted that the congressional and assembly districts are constitutional. Anyways it's expected that there are sometimes redistricting challenges. It doesn't necessarily mean a party has given up on trying to win.

[redcommander]

Djou is announcing today. With Hirono already running for Senate (with an Emily's List endorsement), I doubt Hanabusa runs for Senate as well.

Lingle's probably going to run for Senate, which should be good for Djou and the GOP as it would probably limit Obama's coattails.

[redcommander]

Djou wont get more than 40%.  If he couldnt even come close to being reelected in a year like 2010, he wont win in 2012.

Hanabusa only won by 6 points last year. Djou didn't lose in a major landslide or anything.

He lost by six points in the best Republican year since 1894. 

Hardly. Plus the wave was uneven in its strength.

[redcommander]

Djou wont get more than 40%.  If he couldnt even come close to being reelected in a year like 2010, he wont win in 2012.

Hanabusa only won by 6 points last year. Djou didn't lose in a major landslide or anything.

He lost by six points in the best Republican year since 1894.  

Hardly. Plus the wave was uneven in its strength.

I agree. Considering he was running against Inouye coattails, I think he did pretty well.

Yes, I mean 2010 was a very good year for Republicans, but it was no 1994 in terms of it being a true nationwide wave. Republicans picked up minimal ground in New England and on the West Coast, which pales in comparison to how well they did in both regions in 94. I know that the party was probably thought of by the electorate as much more moderate back then, but still Djou did very well considering the negative publicity the Tea Party received.