2016: Gabrielle Giffords/Jim Marshall vs. Scott Walker/Scott Brown

[Niemeyerite]

Suppose Jim Marshall wins Georgia's Gubernatorial election in 2014 and Walker (he becomes a popular governor) and Brown win reelection. Giffords is elected Senator in 2012.

Do you think that would be a realignment election?

Discuss with maps

Thanks.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

More background, please. Who won 2012 election?

[Niemeyerite]

More background, please. Who won 2012 election?

Obama wins reelection in a close race against Romney. Suppose his approvals are more or less 55% on election day, 2016.
Suppose Obama for Gabrielle what Clinton was for Gore in 2000: he didn't helped, nor hurted his campaign.

____________________________________

do you think a map like this would be possible?

D: 306
R:202

with NY being the closest state.

[Niemeyerite]

with toss-ups

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No. Honestly, the red-blue divide wouldn't change all that much.

[CultureKing]

Walker would not do that well in the Pacific Northwest or Northeast, in fact he would probably be slaughtered.

[hcallega]

The media would paint this as a traditional liberal vs. conservative race, despite Giffords DLC motivations. Tough map, but this here is a Walker/Brown victory:

and here is a Giffords/Marshall victory:

% are off. Just sort of through it together and forgot to hit that button.

[justW353]

The Scott Brown pick makes no sense.  The GOP ticket should be flipped, but even then, Walker will never be anything more than an unpopular one term Governor.

[NCeriale]

I think Walker sinks (R) prospects in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Giffords gets Arizona narrowly and wins Florida.

[Talleyrand]

If Giffords hadn't been injured and this happened, I think she would have easily won, unless Obama was a huge drag on the ticket. If Brown and Walker were switched around, it would be extremely close, but Walker is much too controversial and lacks the charisma to win this in a normal year.

[MAINEiac4434]

I think Walker sinks (R) prospects in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Giffords gets Arizona narrowly and wins Florida.

THIS.

Walker is hugely unpopular, and is one of the few nationally known governors, only because he HATES THE WORKING CLASS. It immediately destroys his prospects in his home state, Ohio, Michigan, Florida and any other state who is regretting putting the tea baggers in office. Gifford will get the sympathy vote. Giffords would DESTROY Walker. He wouldn't stand a chance.

[tmthforu94]

I think Walker sinks (R) prospects in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Giffords gets Arizona narrowly and wins Florida.

THIS.

Walker is hugely unpopular, and is one of the few nationally known governors, only because he HATES THE WORKING CLASS. It immediately destroys his prospects in his home state, Ohio, Michigan, Florida and any other state who is regretting putting the tea baggers in office. Gifford will get the sympathy vote. Giffords would DESTROY Walker. He wouldn't stand a chance.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/sentiment-moving-against-walker-recall.html

A recent PPP poll shows Walker with a 44% approval rating and 50% opposing recall. While those aren't terrific numbers, I certainly wouldn't call him "hugely unpopular." If Walker is "hugely unpopular" with 44% approvals, then I guess Obama is too, considering he's even lower.

[MAINEiac4434]

I think Walker sinks (R) prospects in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Giffords gets Arizona narrowly and wins Florida.

THIS.

Walker is hugely unpopular, and is one of the few nationally known governors, only because he HATES THE WORKING CLASS. It immediately destroys his prospects in his home state, Ohio, Michigan, Florida and any other state who is regretting putting the tea baggers in office. Gifford will get the sympathy vote. Giffords would DESTROY Walker. He wouldn't stand a chance.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/sentiment-moving-against-walker-recall.html

A recent PPP poll shows Walker with a 44% approval rating and 50% opposing recall. While those aren't terrific numbers, I certainly wouldn't call him "hugely unpopular." If Walker is "hugely unpopular" with 44% approvals, then I guess Obama is too, considering he's even lower.

According to Real Clear Politics, Obama is literally at just about the same margin (44.5 to 50.5), not "even lower". Plus, those Walker numbers are within the margin of error.

But it doesn't matter. Giffords would hammer home the so-called "Budget Repair Act" and she'd win by a decent margin, if not a landslide.

While the topic will cool off by the time 2016 rolls around, it's doubtful that Walker will even still be governor. In all likelihood, he'll face recall. If he survives that, then it's doubtful he'll win reelection in 2014, which I assume will be a sane year for elections. All Giffords would have to do is say "Remember what this guy did five years ago? Do you want that, middle class?" She could also make connections to the Kochs, which wouldn't go over well.

Walker's chances in the rust belt would be gone. He'd pick up the solid GOP states. If that.