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Author Topic: Fracture: The 2016 Election. Cuomo (D) v. Huntsman (R) v. Brownback (I/Tea)  (Read 10333 times)
NCeriale
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« on: August 18, 2011, 05:37:20 pm »
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Author's Note: Sorry if this is poor form, but I've taken what posters have been saying seriously, and they're right. It would be fantastical to have a pro-choice nominee at this juncture, so I've changed the issue to gay rights and changed the nominee to Jon Huntsman to make this timeline more realistic. Thanks for reading guys


Prologue:

June 2012

Huffington Post - REPUBLICAN FIELD IN TURMOIL?

NBC Evening News

"...we have come so far. But this campaign has never been about me. It's about the future of this country. Which is why this morning I have formally ended my campaign, so that we can focus on defeating Andrew Cuomo and the best way to do that is to join me in supporting Jon Huntsman for President."

'Brian Williams: That was Senator Marco Rubio earlier this afternoon in Orlando, FL, dropping out of the hotly contested Republican primary after the final votes had been tallied in South Dakota and Oregon, endorsing the former Utah Governor and Ambassador Jon Huntsman. Doubts still remain as to how united the party will be behind Ambassador Huntsman whose support of civil unions has come under fire this campaign  ....'

Politico - Rubio endorses Huntsman




P.2 ....Rubio had emerged as the front runner for the nomination after coming in second behind Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann in the Iowa caucuses. After Jon Huntsman's come from behind win in New Hampshire, Rubio, Bachmann and Huntsman and squared off in South Carolina. While Rubio was initially favored to win, Huntsman won the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley and toppled Rubio. Huntsman, after winning in Michigan and coming in second in the Rubio’s homestate Florida primary, went on to tie Rubio nationally on Super Tuesday, opening up a lead of about 60 delegates. Rubio was largely hampered by dodging the infamous “What about your state?” comment by David Gregory and Bachmann’s ensuing refusal to drop out of the race, while Huntsman was able to take advantage of the winner take all process and solidify support in the Northeast and most notably, in California….

Bachmann would not drop out until after she was publicly urged to drop out by one of her fiercest supporters, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback, who endorsed Rubio in an effort to stop Huntsman. The governor was unavailable for a comment today.

MSNBC: Hardball with Chris Matthews


Chris Matthews: ….why did Rubio stay in the race? Why didn’t he concede after Pennsylvania? Here's Huntsman, whose done everything right who claims he can win 50 states and Rubio bleeds him throughout the primary season. I think he's basically trying to cripple the nominee over one issue so he has the better chance in 2020. Joan?

Joan Walsh:  Hi, Chris. Yeah, Marco Rubio and to a lesser extent Michele Bachmann are emblematic of that whole Tea Party thing of cutting off their nose to spite their face. In fact in this case, sinking the nominee off of only one issue that isn’t in line with tea party orthodoxy, they’re cutting off their face to spite their nose-

Matthews: Ha! Let me bring Chris Cilizza in on this. Chris, I love your blog the Fix. I read it every day. So what’s the deal? You’re Karl Rove or the Chairman of the RNC, you’ve got a formidable opponent in Andrew Cuomo, where do you go from here?

Chris Cilizza: Hey Chris, thanks for the plug. First, a point of disagreement with Joan with the whole sinking the nominee. Let’s look at what happened after Pennsylvania where everyone knew now that Huntsman would come out on top without some implosion. Rubio didn’t drop out but he didn’t really directly attack him from there on. If you noticed he went on the attack against Andrew Cuomo. If anything, he was showing off his attack dog chomps to help sink Cuomo in the general while keeping the base placated.

Matthews: So you're saying he stayed in the race to appease the Bob vander Plaatses? Give those people people just the illusion of a choice? How does that work, cause they’re still voting against the nominee of the party?

Walsh: The field's in chaos Chris.

Cilliza: Don't underestimate how disciplined the Republicans are. Putting Rubio on the ticket solves that dilemma. There's a lot of people in the party sighing relief that Huntsman is the nominee because gay marriage is an issue that is fast turning against them. I think that’s what Rubio’s been auditioning for after he figured he couldn't w-

Matthews:  Yeah like a show of force. That whole ‘me and my friends in half the convention would appreciate a spot for me on the ticket.‘ That’s interesting.

FOX NEWS- Hannity

Sean Hannity: ….why did Rubio concede? He should’ve fought it to the convention. I know you’re going to disagree with me Karl but that’s the problem with republicans these days! They’ve been giving the liberals in the democrat party what they want!

Karl Rove: Well I think that Rubio ran a great race. He was my original pick as you know, but I think the best way to defeat Andrew Cuomo, who supports full out marriage, Sean is to elect Jon Huntsman. The best thing he can do to get elected is to put Marco Rubio on the ticket.

Sean Hannity: Rubio should've stuck it out to the convention....



Red: Senator Marco Rubio
Green: Governor Jon Huntsman
Yellow: Representative Michele Bachmann*

------
*Author's note: If the math doesn't quite add up, I'd be happy to adjust certain states
« Last Edit: September 02, 2011, 07:38:59 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2011, 06:51:51 pm »
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One month before the Republican National Convention.

Michael Steele: I think the real issue here is that, look it's a Republican year. As far as we're concerned, gay marriage is a state's issue. Republicans are going to get behind Jon Huntsman who is pro life and a real fiscal conservative once the convention comes along. His appeal to independents is going to help him carry the swing states."

Jon Stewart: Do you think Governor Huntsman can make good on his promise to carry 50 states?

Michael Steele: You know Bob, I do. He'll certainly be able to compete in all of them. I think he'll go into election day with 300 in his back pocket.

Jon Stewart: You're really bullish about this guy huh?

Michael Steele: (laughs)

Gallup:
Huntsman: 49% Cuomo: 44%

Rasmussen:
Huntsman: 52% Cuomo: 46%

Obama Job Approval: 42%

Huntsman Favorable

Democrats: 45%
Republican: 62%
Independents: 61%

Cuomo Favorable

Democrats: 82%
Republicans: 29%
Independents: 53%

"Republicans are going to sit this one out and hope for better in 2020. They'll just try to sink the economy for Andrew Cuomo to get Rubio elected next cycle." Markos Moulitsas

"We'll see how the convention goes. If we eat each other alive, Cuomo has a fighting chance, if not, it's Jon Hunstman's to lose. Not only would it be foolish politically because Huntsman is the best nominee we've had since Reagan, but it would be foolish on a higher level because Huntsman would be the best president we've had since Reagan" Joe Scarborough
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 04:33:51 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2011, 07:37:20 pm »
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One thing for sure: it doesn't matter if Brown or Cuomo is elected president, they will be really bipartisan and moderate, and will appeal to the other party, too.
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2011, 08:02:13 pm »
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Awesome. Can't say I'm a huge Brown fan, but I'm glad to see Republicans survive in the Northeast & hopefully make some inroads there while holding the South.
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2011, 08:23:35 pm »
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In an interview given today, Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS), publicly said that “until Jon comes out in favor for a constitutional amendment protecting marriage, we need to protect marriage.” Brownback’s fiery comments do not come as a shock to many in the GOP, who echoed their concerns in the Republican primaries. Huntsman’s camp responded:

“Sam Brownback’s comments are typical of those who have no economic record to stand on or plan to give.  Jon has repeatedly said that this type of issue should be settled on the statewide level. As governor he supported civil unions but would never force his views on others, unlike Governor Brownback. Jon will continue to fight against those who would divide and distract us and for the jobs of those suffering from these times of economic hardship.”

Brownback is publicly urging Fmr candidate Senator Marco Rubio to challenge Huntsman at the convention: “if they want a Republican to win this November, they need to pick a real Republican.” Behind the scenes, Republican operatives are urging delegates released by Marco Rubio to vote for Jon Huntsman on the first ballot. Publicly, they are confident that Huntsman will launch from the convention unscathed.

“It would be an irony of fate,” says former Utah Senator Robert Bennett “if we had a nominee like Jon who could get upwards of 55 per cent of the popular vote and win 49 states but hamstring him before he could get running.” Bennett, who lost a primary to Congressman Mike Lee in 2010, laments that “ideological purists have cost us huge victories. This could be the second presidential election where the Democrats win despite themselves.”
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 04:39:27 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2011, 08:31:47 pm »
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Examining it from the Republican side, it's a gamble. On one hand, Brown could get you the Presidency. On the other hand, would it really be worth it? His most Conservative points are on taxes and foreign policy. You take what you can get, but at the same time, if you're a Republican and you can get more, shouldn't you try? It's a difficult conundrum, but both could be better than Cuomo, at least in theory.
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2011, 10:04:02 am »
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Actually It's 61 percent of Americans who want abortion banned or strongly restricted. Scott Brown would not have a shot at the nomination in a scenario such as that. Rubio should fight to the convention.
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2011, 10:11:09 am »
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Actually It's 61 percent of Americans who want abortion banned or strongly restricted. Scott Brown would not have a shot at the nomination in a scenario such as that. Rubio should fight to the convention.


You're wrong.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2011, 04:58:00 pm »
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Politico - Pressure on Rubio to reconsider, challenge Huntsman at Convention

Drudge - Scuttlebutt: Insurrection Coming

Jonathan Alter: There's been real pressure for Rubio to contest the convention. My sources are telling me they're looking to draft a compromise candidate like a Former Governor Chris Christie who can bring the Huntsman wing of the party together with the Rubio and Bachmann. Bachmann has still not released her delegates.


The Next Morning

Politico: Huntsman Picks Rubio

Huffington Post: Can He Stave off the Damage?

New York Times: Former Rivals to head Republican Ticket

Eugene Robinson: Well obviously it's the smartest choice. He probably rolled it out a lot faster than he would have liked to mitigate the Brownback eruption and the growing dissatisfaction with a moderate as the nominee.

Joe Klein: Rubio's smart. He didn't want to deadlock the convention because he knew he gets first pickings in '20 if Cuomo wins. He doesn't want to be seen as costing the Republicans their second best shot in two cycles at the White House. I think Huntsman is going to be forced to aggressively attack Cuomo on all things New York: high taxes, government restrictions and over guns. All those 'live-free or die' things that worked so well in New Hampshire for him. He needs to make that argument: 'if you think you can afford to sit this one out think again.'

Sean Hannity: I still have my doubts about Huntsman, but with Rubio on the ticket I would rather have him than Cuomo.

Rush Limbaugh: 'If only we could abort the top of the ticket'

Michele Malkin: Rubio should have contested the convention. He is a sellout. We need to look into an alternative candidate.

Chris Matthews: ...it's like the scene in the Godfather: 'it's the smart move, Rubio was always smarter.'
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 04:44:30 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2011, 04:11:51 am »
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Actually It's 61 percent of Americans who want abortion banned or strongly restricted. Scott Brown would not have a shot at the nomination in a scenario such as that. Rubio should fight to the convention.


You're wrong.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
Read your own link.

About 1/3 of the way down the page, under the question "(If certain circumstances) Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only in a few circumstances?"
The combined responses have 61% for abortion illegal in all or legal in only a few circumstances.
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2011, 04:51:03 pm »
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Quote

Read your own link.

About 1/3 of the way down the page, under the question "(If certain circumstances) Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only in a few circumstances?"
The combined responses have 61% for abortion illegal in all or legal in only a few circumstances.

You're right. Revisionist history time!

Also here are Andrew Cuomo's list for VP candidates he is currently vetting:

Mark Warner (VA)
Tim Kaine (VA)
Jeanne Shaheene (NH)
Brian Shweitzer (MT)
Martin O'Malley (ML)
Michael Bennett (CO)

Chris Matthews: I think it's funny, absent from this list is Governor Lincoln Chaffee, whose praise stopped short of an endorsement during the primaries. My gut feeling that Chafee didn't want to be vetted because he is going to endorse Hunstman or stay neutral.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2011, 04:56:18 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2011, 05:37:33 pm »
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Chuck Todd: Huntsman has brought up his favorables with Republicans to a 71-22 margin. Now that's a huge improvement over last week where his highest had been 62% shortly after his New Hampshire win. The Huntsman people believe this will not be a problem in the general, where he leads Cuomo in all of the states  that Bush won in 04 and Obama won in 08 as well as the Perry states they have to defend from last cycle. Our newest poll has some really bad news for Cuomo



Based on the polling, our political department at MSNBC has a 281-125 Huntsman electoral vote lead with 132 in the margin of error. That means if the election were held today, Huntsman would win handily, and it's not hard to imagine another 20 to break off to bring Huntsman to 300 electoral votes. Look at all of these are democratic states, including former strongholds like California, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania. All within the margin of error. Ohio, Florida and Virginia, arguably the three most important swing states has a Huntsman up by five or more points. If I'm Andrew Cuomo, I'm very worried right now....



-------------

Flashback to the Republican Debate, two days before the South Carolina Primary

Rubio: 16%
Huntsman: 14%
Bachmann: 9%
Pawlenty: 5%


David Gregory: Now onto the issue of gay marriage Governor Pawlenty where do you stand on the amendment Congresswoman Bachmann has proposed defining marriage as between a man and a woman?

Pawlenty: You know, I would, the institution is one that needs to be protected Chris. I want the voters to know I stand for traditional marriage.

Gregory: Senator Rubio.

Rubio: I think that it is a state issue and that the states should decide.

Gregory: What if the issue were to come up in Florida?

Rubio: I'm a senator, my job is to make

Gregory: As a voter, how would you vote?

Rubio: I think that's a private issue-

Jon Huntsman: What the Senator is trying to say is that he wouldn't force his views on anyone. I've come out in favor of civil unions-

Michele Bachmann: I think we all know that by now! (audience laughs)

Huntsman: Yes you've let everyone know that by now. You've also reminded everyone that I'm a Mormon. No, no I don't mind. As a Mormon I don't drink alcohol, but I'm not going to try to bring prohibition back. I think if two adults are happy together, it's not the government's business or any of mine.

Gregory: So do you support the Defense of Marriage act?

Huntsman: Call me crazy, but I don't. I think that if you have a civil union in Utah, then Florida should recognize it in state business. The same way that if you have a license to carry a handgun in South Carolina, Massachusetts should honor it within its borders. (Mixed
enthusiastic applause and booing)


Flash forward



DAY ONE:


Politico - Republicans tense as Bachmann still refuses to concede the election.

Washington Post - Many Teas Party Members stick with Bachmann

DAY TWO:


Townhall - It's Over

TPM: Bachmann drops out, Releases Delegates

The Week: Bachmann pledges support to "the Republican Ticket"

"Bachmann seems to have won what she could given her low delegate count, with the Republican Party platform having written into it a strong declaration supporting her Protection of Marriage Amendment"

Real Clear Politics: John Kasich gives Keynote speech, slams Cuomo as "running on the coattails of a failed president"

DAY THREE:



Huffingtonpost
: Republican convention nominates Rubio for VP by acclamation

NYT:
Rubio Nominated, Slams Cuomo as Obama's 3rd Term

Politico: Rubio assures Solidarity with Huntsman

"Rubio hit Cuomo on foreign policy inexperience, claiming that Huntsman had 'created jobs at home' and 'stopped the bleeding from the Obama administration' abroad. Rubio stressed Huntsman's conservative credentials and ability to make the federal government 'lean, trim and far away from your life as possible.' (p2) ... (p3) ...the convention gave him a 10 minute standing ovation"


DAY FOUR....
« Last Edit: August 24, 2011, 06:44:10 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2011, 06:09:25 pm »
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Dang! While I probably agree more with Huntsman than Brown, I personally think Brown is more interesting as a potential candidate. (A Rubio/Brown ticket would be pretty sweet, but you've already laid out your plans)

Reading through the new update... "If only we could abort the top of the ticket"? Really?

In general though, good updates. Can we have some pictures? I know it's a couple years off, but pictures can help fill up space as well as add some color to the thing.
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2011, 06:20:07 pm »
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Thanks alot! The more I thought about it, the more I thought that the poster who disagreed with my choice was right. Brown would have never made it to the nomination and it's important for the yarn to have the potential fracture. The abortion comment was supposed to be provocative when Brown was the first pro-choice nominee, I just left it in because Limbaugh might still joke about that.

Oh, and I am going to retroactively add pictures once I get my post count up (I'm a new guy on the block) haha
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2011, 06:55:55 pm »
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(PPP) Is Jon Huntsman conservative enough?

Yes: 52%
No: 34%
Not sure: 14%

Does Huntsman's selection of Marco Rubio as his running mate increase or decrease your likelihood of voting for him?
(Among no's and not sure's)

Increase: 54%
Decrease: 3%
No effect: 43
« Last Edit: August 24, 2011, 07:00:16 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2011, 10:43:44 pm »
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Day Four

John King: This is CNN, live from the RNC from Phoenix, Arizona. Breaking News, where there have been reports of delegates carrying bundled stacks of "Draft Brownback" signs. Kansas Governor Sam Brownback was not given a speaking slot because of his refusal to endorse the ticket.


Two hours later....

Politico: Sarah Palin surprised the convention in officially nominating Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas for President, claiming the GOP "must be the party of family values" to deserve winning the Presidency.

Unnamed RNC Staffer: I don't think this is surprising, coming from someone who peaked five years ago when she made the shooting of a dozen people about her. She's hit her bottom and fast becoming irrelevant. Her endorsement couldn't help Rubio this cycle and she cost the party Ted Stevens's Senate seat in 2014. Sam Brownback had two years to run for president, if still wants to be president, he can wait until 2024.

Delegate Count

First Ballot
Huntsman: 1008
Rubio: 3
Bachmann: 2
Brownback: 353

Fifth Ballot:
Huntsman: 1904
Rubio: 1
Bachmann: 0
Brownback:  474

shortly after

Shep Smith: That was the scene a few minutes ago, where Kansas Governor Sam Brownback and his delegates walk out of convention, citing irreconcilable differences over  protecting the institution of marriage

Rachel Maddow: It's shocking that members in the Republican party are willing to defect over this issue, to support a candidate they know can't win over this issue. This is how deeply they believe in their religious convictions.

Brian Williams: We have word that Michele Bachmann is not in the convention hall. Can we... is that right? Alright we can confirm, Michele Bachmann has left the building. Possibly with the Brownback delegation.

Jon Huntsman, Republican Nominee for 2016 Presidential Election


NYT: Huntsman accepts nomination, calls for party unity.

Townhall: GOP has Candidate, but do we?

The Next Night, FOXNEWS

Sean Hannity: He didn't go after Obama enough, he even praised him briefly. He barely mentioned Andrew Cuomo or went after him enough. What is it about the democrats that Jon Huntsman can't attack? Governor?

Sam Brownback: Well I think Jon Huntsman has always been afraid to call himself a Republican. He served President Obama early in his term, he called him a great leader. It's clear that little has changed in his line of thinking. He is not a conservative, that's why I'm running as a third party candidate this cycle. I've been speaking to the heads of certain conservative groups and parties in states like the Tea Party of Florida and the Conservative Party in New York and, Sean I think you're gonna be surprised with the kind of support we're going to have nation-wide.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2011, 11:04:41 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2011, 10:52:17 pm »
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Gallup Polling, Week of Democratic Convention
Cuomo: 44%
Huntsman: 42%
Brownback: 9%
Undecided/Not Sure: 5%

THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET



"The next Vice-President of the United States: Michael Bennet."

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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2011, 12:16:40 pm »
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DNC - Los Angeles



"We are members of the Democratic Party, we know where we stand on equal rights. We don't have to broker our convention or have our members storm out. We know what we believe!"

"Cuomo Praises Huntsman for Civility Pledge, Nicks GOP for Extremism"



"Poll Shows Convention Bounce for Cuomo, Brownback Divides GOP"

Cuomo/Bennet: 46%
Huntsman/Rubio: 40%
Sam Brownback: 11%
« Last Edit: August 29, 2011, 12:24:42 pm by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2011, 12:49:54 pm »
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John King: This is really interesting. You see here Cuomo has taken the lead of over 80 electoral votes once the lean dem and lean GOP states have been added. All Cuomo needs to do is capture previous Obama states as well as New Mexico and he's past the 270 threshold. Without Suzanna Martinez on the ballot this year, New Mexico could very well swing back to the Democrats and if Cuomo can repeat Obama's narrow 2012 victory in Virginia this year, he's feeling good about becoming the 45th president.

Wolf Blitzer: John, what role do you think Sam Brownback is playing? Is he a spoiler?

King: If certainly seems that way. One of the reasons you've seen this huge swing more than 100 electoral votes is that Brownback has eroded the foundation of Huntsman support in the Republican party. Many of these Lean Cuomo states have him winning by a plurality that very well have gone to Huntsman. If you look at Iowa where Bob Vander Plaats has already endorsed Sam Brownback, it had moved from Lean Huntsman to toss-up. You're going to see alot of that in the toss-up states are ones where Huntsman would probably be leading. What should make team Huntsman a bit queazy is that Sam Brownback has already put his homestate of Kansas and Idaho in his column early on in the game.

Blitzer: Jon I have to interrupt you for one second. Sam Brownback has started his tour of the South with a very interesting announcement: Georgia businessman and former Presidential candidate Herman Cain will be his running mate.

« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 12:44:52 am by NCeriale »Logged
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2011, 01:14:39 pm »
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Huntsman would carry ID and UT fairly easily.
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2011, 01:57:14 pm »
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Utah-ians are mad at Huntsman right now because he ran away from Mormonism during the primaries to win South Carolina, alot of the Christian Right were reticent to vote for a Mormon. A lot of the Mormon community felt burned that Huntsman was somehow disavowing their faith. Utah may come around, depends how the campaign goes.

----------------------------------

Sam Brownback has released a list of endorsements:

Former Senator Rick Santorum (PA)
Former Governor Rick Scott (FL)
Former Governor Sarah Palin (AZ)
Senator Jerry Moran (KS)
Actor Stephen Baldwin
Ralph Reed
Congressman Allen West (FL)
Former Congessman Steve King
Independent Senate Candidate Bob vander Plaats
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2011, 12:01:24 am »
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Brownback will have a ballot access problem since he waited until the Republican convention to announce. He's likely to have missed independent filing deadlines in several states.
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2011, 12:40:40 pm »
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Rubio would side with Brownback not Huntsman. He opposes gay marriage and supports an amendment banning gay marriage.
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2011, 01:34:28 pm »
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Rubio would side with Brownback not Huntsman. He opposes gay marriage and supports an amendment banning gay marriage.

Huntsman still thinks its a state's issue. Rubio isn't going to ruin his credibility in the Republican party, especially if Huntsman loses. He does not want to be seen as someone who cost the GOP yet another chance at the White House. Huntsman is still very conservative on fiscal issues. Rubio knows better than to sink the election over one issue.  The GOP is still licking its wounds from 2012
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2011, 01:47:33 pm »
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Rubio would side with Brownback not Huntsman. He opposes gay marriage and supports an amendment banning gay marriage.

Yeah, and Reagan might agree with Schmitz more than Nixon in 1972. That doesn't mean he's gonna endorse Schmitz over Nixon. Rubio here knows enough to bide his time and either come otu when the smoke clears in 2020, or maybe even become Vice-President now.
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