OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Time for an official thread. The filing deadline passed already; 13 candidates filed to run. I italicized the ones that have a shot at winning their respective primary:

Democrats:
Saba Ahmed
Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian
State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici
Dominic Hammon
Robert Lettin
Todd Lee Ritter
Dan Strite
State Rep. Brad Witt

Republicans:
'10 nominee Rob Cornilles
D. R. Delgado-Morgan
perennial candidate Pavel Goberman
'02 nominee Jim Greenfield
Lisa Michaels

[Talleyrand]

I think Bonamici will end up winning this. She's gotten a lot of favorable media coverage and endorsements, plus I was impressed by her fundraising. 240K in 5 days, right? Avakian has a good chance too, but my gut feeling is that he'll be a close second and Witt (My personal favorite out of these 3) will be third. I doubt Cornilles will win, but he might make this competitive. I wonder what all the Oregonians on this site think.

[Free Palestine]

What about independents/other party candidates?

[greenforest32]

This seat is safe for Democrats. The interesting part will be the Democratic primary.

[Torie]

The Dems got lucky, because the 2012 version of this seat I believe is  a bit more Pubbie. Pity Wu quit. I told him to tough it out and finish his term, and thought his tiger Halloween suit was cute, and who cares about an old man's sex life except opebo, but he wouldn't listen to me.

[Meeker]

The Dems got lucky, because the 2012 version of this seat I believe is  a bit more Pubbie. Pity Wu quit. I told him to tough it out and finish his term, and thought his tiger Halloween suit was cute, and who cares about an old man's sex life except opebo, but he wouldn't listen to me.

Only by a point or two. Neither version of this district would vote for a Republican excluding extraordinary circumstances.

[Tender Branson]

Grove Insight for EMILY's List push poll:

34% Suzanne Bonamici
10% Brad Witt
  8% Brad Avakian
48% Others/Undecided

When the candidates' biographies are listed, Bonamici's lead widens to 29 points, and she has the highest favorability of all the candidates.

The Democratic primary is on November 8, but ballots for the all-mail special election will go out beginning October 21.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/10/bonamici-holds.php

[smoltchanov]

Grove Insight for EMILY's List push poll:

34% Suzanne Bonamici
10% Brad Witt
  8% Brad Avakian
48% Others/Undecided

When the candidates' biographies are listed, Bonamici's lead widens to 29 points, and she has the highest favorability of all the candidates.

The Democratic primary is on November 8, but ballots for the all-mail special election will go out beginning October 21.

Well, it's a push poll, and EMILY list heavily supports Bonamici, but she is still a favorite, probably. Though, i think, not so heavy favorite...

[redcommander]

The Dems got lucky, because the 2012 version of this seat I believe is  a bit more Pubbie. Pity Wu quit. I told him to tough it out and finish his term, and thought his tiger Halloween suit was cute, and who cares about an old man's sex life except opebo, but he wouldn't listen to me.

Only by a point or two. Neither version of this district would vote for a Republican excluding extraordinary circumstances.

Why do you say that? It's PVI is comparable to NY-9, and on paper should actually be a little easier to pull an upset in.

[smoltchanov]

Why do you say that? It's PVI is comparable to NY-9, and on paper should actually be a little easier to pull an upset in.

Probably - because there are no Hassidic or Orthodox Jews in OR-01...

[Meeker]

Obama's approval rating is likely higher than in NY-09.

Saying "this district will be competitive because it has a similar PVI as NY-09" is like when we were saying "NV-02 will be competitive because it has a similar PVI as NY-26".

[Holmes]

If anyone thinks this seat won't be competitive because of the redefinition of marriage in New York, they're crazy.

[DrScholl]

It's also trended quite Democratic over time, unlike NY-9. The lack of a stealth group of conservative voters makes it unlikely to flip barring unusual circumstances.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Uh, is this suppose to be a joke?

EDIT:

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Okay, this had to be the funniest part.

[greenforest32]

Uh, is this suppose to be a joke?

EDIT:

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Okay, this had to be the funniest part.

Holy horrible formatting Batman! He's got a few good ideas but plenty of bad ones too (electing judges)

I do appreciate his passion though

[krazen1211]

The Dems got lucky, because the 2012 version of this seat I believe is  a bit more Pubbie. Pity Wu quit. I told him to tough it out and finish his term, and thought his tiger Halloween suit was cute, and who cares about an old man's sex life except opebo, but he wouldn't listen to me.

Only by a point or two. Neither version of this district would vote for a Republican excluding extraordinary circumstances.

If Meeker says a district would vote for a Republican, by golly, it won't.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Huge fundraising numbers for Bonamici and Cornilles:

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[CatoMinor]

The Dems got lucky, because the 2012 version of this seat I believe is  a bit more Pubbie. Pity Wu quit. I told him to tough it out and finish his term, and thought his tiger Halloween suit was cute, and who cares about an old man's sex life except opebo, but he wouldn't listen to me.

Only by a point or two. Neither version of this district would vote for a Republican excluding extraordinary circumstances.

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SUSA poll has huge leads for Cornilles and Bonamici in the primaries.

[Tender Branson]

SUSA poll has huge leads for Cornilles and Bonamici in the primaries.

No general election matchup ? Meh.

[All Along The Watchtower]

SUSA poll has huge leads for Cornilles and Bonamici in the primaries.

No general election matchup ? Meh.

It's gonna be Bonamici.

[Tender Branson]

Bonamici dominating another poll:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2011/10/bonamici_holds_strong_lead_in.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The difference between this and NY-09 is that NY-09 is chock full of demographics that Obama is not popular with and turned away from the Democrats for this reason while this district is the exact opposite. Obama is probably still rather popular in this district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This one's been a bit of a snorefest, huh? Well, at least something happened, Bonamici was cross-endorsed by the Independent Party.

[greenforest32]

This one's been a bit of a snorefest, huh? Well, at least something happened, Bonamici was cross-endorsed by the Independent Party.

The 'Independent Party' is a joke. In the 2010 elections here it was basically whoever applied for the IPO nomination got it. There was no ideological consistency among IPO cross/fusion endorsements. They nominated liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. There was an interesting discussion about them a few days ago on an Oregon politics blog (scroll to the comments): http://www.blueoregon.com/2011/11/or-1-first-debate-bonamici-cornilles/

I suspect the only reason they have so many registered voters/members (~70,000 or so makes them the third largest party in the state) is when people register to vote they think registering with 'Independent Party' is registering with no party/as an independent which is actually another option in Oregon: registering as a non-affiliated voter.