OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12
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  OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12  (Read 7521 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #25 on: December 01, 2011, 07:03:55 PM »
They did actually have a primary of sorts (some kind of thing where members had to mail their ballot to the party along with a photocopy of their photo ID). According to their website, she won 56-31 over Cornilles. Of course, that's votes, not percent...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2011, 06:32:36 PM »
DCCC is spending $440k on anti-Cornilles ads. Guess they're not taking any chances after NY-09.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #27 on: December 14, 2011, 09:02:53 PM »
DKE/PPP are doing a poll of this race.
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Meeker
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« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2012, 02:37:54 AM »
Ballots were mailed Friday.
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Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
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« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2012, 08:26:56 PM »
So aside from Bonamici who only partially counts...

Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on August 18, 2011, 07:12:35 PM
What about independents/other party candidates?
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bgwah
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« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2012, 09:38:51 PM »
Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on January 14, 2012, 08:26:56 PM
So aside from Bonamici who only partially counts...

Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on August 18, 2011, 07:12:35 PM
What about independents/other party candidates?

What do you mean? There's also a Progressive and a Libertarian running, each polling at 2% IIRC.
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Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
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« Reply #31 on: January 15, 2012, 03:13:13 AM »
Quote from: bgwah on January 14, 2012, 09:38:51 PM
Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on January 14, 2012, 08:26:56 PM
So aside from Bonamici who only partially counts...

Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on August 18, 2011, 07:12:35 PM
What about independents/other party candidates?

What do you mean? There's also a Progressive and a Libertarian running, each polling at 2% IIRC.

Progressive?  Never heard of a Progressive party.

And, that's all I meant -- are there any running.  Thanks for the info.
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redcommander
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« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2012, 05:22:45 PM »
It looks as if Republicans think they have a chance at the seat now with the NRCC going up with an air buy. I would say Democrats are still favored, but it's not the safe seat it was two weeks ago.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #33 on: January 17, 2012, 06:43:35 PM »
They're only spending $85k or so. Not impressed.
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redcommander
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« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2012, 03:34:50 AM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 17, 2012, 06:43:35 PM
They're only spending $85k or so. Not impressed.

Well it's better than nothing at least. Tongue
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2012, 04:13:25 AM »
Quote from: redcommander on January 18, 2012, 03:34:50 AM

Well it's better than nothing at least. Tongue

Yeah, but Cornilles lost by relatively large margin in 2010 and doesn't impresses me too much. One more district where Republicans would be better with moderate candidate, but doesn't have one....))))
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2012, 09:25:44 AM »
Cornilles internal:

46% Bonamici (D)
42% Cornilles (R)

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/or-01-gop-poll.php

But both SUSA and PPP have recently shown Bonamici ahead by double-digits ...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #37 on: January 28, 2012, 08:18:02 AM »
Supposedly the partisan breakdown of ballots returned so far is 48D-34R-18I. If true, this probably won't be close.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2012, 08:56:22 AM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 28, 2012, 08:18:02 AM
Supposedly the partisan breakdown of ballots returned so far is 48D-34R-18I. If true, this probably won't be close.

SurveyUSA and PPP both used a D+10 sample in their poll, so if it is D+14 with a 30% turnout already (like the article says), then she'll win by double-digits.

Unless the Republican has an absurdly good result among Independents, which is unlikely because Bonamici has better favorables among this group.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2012, 09:02:14 AM »
I think I'll try a prediction:

56.2% Bonamici (D)
41.9% Cornilles (R)
  1.9% Others
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2012, 10:09:50 PM »
I'll predict a 57-40 Bonamici win.
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Spamage
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« Reply #41 on: January 30, 2012, 10:23:09 PM »
 For me, sadly, its not if Cornilles wins its how much he loses by....
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2012, 10:17:27 AM »
Democrats have a bigger turnout in OR-01 than Republicans:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #43 on: January 31, 2012, 10:28:05 AM »
If this 47D-35R-18I pattern holds and the usual exit poll rules apply (Bonamic gets about 90% of Dems, Cornilles 90% of Republicans and Independents are split), then Bonamici wins with about 55% of the vote.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #44 on: January 31, 2012, 11:07:29 PM »
James Foster       4,219    3.11%    
Rob Cornilles       50,875    37.56%    
Suzanne Bonamici       75,800    55.96%    
Steven Reynolds       4,228    3.12%    
Write-in Votes       323    0.24%    
      _________________    _________________    
   Totals:    135,445    100%    

http://oregonvotes.org/results/2012S/345505730.html
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Seattle
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« Reply #45 on: January 31, 2012, 11:16:17 PM »
What's up with Columbia county giving the Progressive candidate 5% of the vote?
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« Reply #46 on: February 01, 2012, 02:23:46 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 31, 2012, 10:28:05 AM
If this 47D-35R-18I pattern holds and the usual exit poll rules apply (Bonamic gets about 90% of Dems, Cornilles 90% of Republicans and Independents are split), then Bonamici wins with about 55% of the vote.

Good job!
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #47 on: February 01, 2012, 08:04:37 AM »
Wow, turnout was over 200,000. Pretty good for a special election.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #48 on: February 01, 2012, 08:09:57 AM »
Quote from: Seattle on January 31, 2012, 11:16:17 PM
What's up with Columbia county giving the Progressive candidate 5% of the vote?
No idea. He lives in Portland.
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