Perry and Hispanic voters?

[Kevin]

If Perry does get the Republican nod and with alot of talk about the increased importance of Hispanic voters especially in places like the Western States, does anyone think he would be the Republican best positioned to appeal to Hispanics?

I mean he is the governor of a state with a very large Latino population, from what I know he speaks fluent Spanish, is a social conservative , came from a poor working class background, and hasn't espoused or bought into any of the anti-Hispanic rhetoric that has been floated by many other Republicans and Tea Party types. In addition to what is previously mentioned, but he has rebuffed attempts to implement "Arizona style" laws in Texas, and has criticized states that have or had put into force such measures. As well as supporting comprehensive immigration reform to boot.

Not only that but Perry also looks kind of Hispanic also which could be a plus? Who knows?
 

[RJ]

You had me up until you said he looks hispanic...

Those are very good points but I have to wonder if hispanic communities really think Perry can keep the Tea party at bay, especially if they try throwing Tea party candidates in congressional or even statewide races in those states. Bush benefited from a favorable split(being a Republican) from hispanics for reasons similar to the ones you just listed.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

My guess is that the ratio of Hispanic votes to non-Hispanic White votes would be slightly higher for Perry than for Romney. However, the total votes for Romney would be greater, and so the Hispanic votes for Romney would probably be higher as well. The gap between Hispanic and white votes would be even smaller for Santorum. I'd consider Huntsman the best bet for Hispanics overall in terms of total numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Perry received about 38% of the Latino-vote against White last year, only 3% more than McCain and far below the 49% that Bush got in 2004. And the Texas Latinos are slightly more conservative than the national Latinos.

I don't think Perry would do much better with Latinos than McCain did, nationally he could get 35% at best.

But let's wait for the national PPP poll that will come out next week and we'll get a picture of what Perry's support among Latinos might look like, with Obama in bad shape. If Obama's in good shape, closer to the 50% approval mark, you can add an additional 5-10% Latino support.

[ag]

Perry should do reasonably well with Texas Hispanics, raising his Hispanic vote share overall, but exactly where he doesn't really need it. I doubt his charms are going to go much beyond the home state, though.  I don't think it's going to be enough for most Hispanics for a Republican to be not particularly Hispanophobic: given the atmosphere, he'd have to be doing, or, at least, saying, something more proactive.

[Lief 🗽]

Perry was never very popular with Hispanics, at least not compared to Bush who did very well with them in Texas. Bush split Texas Hispanics 50-50 with Kerry; Perry lost them by 10 points in 2006 and by 23 points in 2010.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

2010 Hispanic Vote (Governor)
White (D) - 61%
Perry (R) -38%

2008 Hispanic Vote (President)
Obama (D) - 63%
McCain (R) - 35%

2008 Hispanic Vote (Senate)
Noriega (D) - 61%
Cornyn (R) - 36%

2006 Hispanic Vote (Senate)
Radnofsky (D) - 54%
Hutchison (R) - 44%

2004 Hispanic Vote (President)
Kerry (D) - 50%
Bush (R) - 49%

All those numbers are taken from CNN.  Granted it is some what apples-to-oranges to compare elections for the Governor, President and Senate elections, however the lack of a significant change is shocking.  It is very telling that in 2010, the best year for the GOP in decades, the Republican candidate couldn't shift this demographic more than a few percentage points versus 2008, one of the best years for Democrats.  I left out the 2006 reelection of Perry because that was a four way race and it would be difficult to compare with two independents taking significant amounts of the vote from both the Democrat and Republican candidates.

[pbrower2a]

My guess is that the ratio of Hispanic votes to non-Hispanic White votes would be slightly higher for Perry than for Romney. However, the total votes for Romney would be greater, and so the Hispanic votes for Romney would probably be higher as well. The gap between Hispanic and white votes would be even smaller for Santorum. I'd consider Huntsman the best bet for Hispanics overall in terms of total numbers.

The Favorite Son effect (that someone from the State running for President has about a 10% advantage from such alone over someone not from that State) might make a difference for Perry if he isn't a catastrophic failure as a candidate. The effect is about the same whether a candidate wins or loses the overall election. As an example, John McCain did about 10% less well in Texas in 2008 than did Dubya in either 2000 or 2004 (but still won the state), In 1972, George McGovern did about 10% better in South Dakota (but still lost) than he did in North Dakota. The only common exception are in max-out situations (Obama actually did better in Massachusetts in 2008 than did Kerry in 2004) or if the candidate is despised in the state in question.

Hispanics seem to be going liberal even as their economic circumstances improve. maybe that reflects career choices, with much of the Hispanic middle class being school teachers, a decidedly liberal occupation. It could also be that Hispanics do not respond to Anglo anti-intellectualism that is much of the GOP appeal. Not-so-prosperous Hispanics recognize public schooling as one of the few means of avoiding part of a permanent underclass.

I no longer consider Jon Huntsman a viable candidate for President this year. He is probably the best of the lot.   

[TheGlobalizer]

Hispanic voters will be roughly 65/35 barring a Hispanic on a ticket.

[Zarn]

Eww. -Hispanic

[Tender Branson]

But let's wait for the national PPP poll that will come out next week and we'll get a picture of what Perry's support among Latinos might look like, with Obama in bad shape.

Among Latinos:

72% Obama
26% Perry

Sample size is just 70, so MoE is probably 10-20% ...

[King]

Being from Texas doesn't help Perry. Bush did well among Hispanics because he wasn't a xenophobe who wanted to strip everyone with a tan of citizenship, make not speaking English a felony, and send Puerto Ricans back to Mexico. The
Teabaggers will not allow someone who holds such RINO positions to be nominated again.

[J. J.]

Being from Texas doesn't help Perry. Bush did well among Hispanics because he wasn't a xenophobe who wanted to strip everyone with a tan of citizenship, make not speaking English a felony, and send Puerto Ricans back to Mexico. The
Teabaggers will not allow someone who holds such RINO positions to be nominated again.

Perry is closer to Bush on these issues and seems to have strong support of the Tea Party movement.