Will the election be a close one?

[Speaker Dereich]

I personally think this will be a really close election, but I've heard some people assume it's going to be a landslide, one way or the other.

Also, maps are good if you care to share.

[Odysseus]

It's going to be a landslide. Either against Obama, or against the GOP.

[Paul Kemp]

Who knows?

[anvi]

Don't know, of course.  But I think it will be close.  I think it will come down to the nine states below.

[opebo]

Though the GOP will win, it will be close, contrary to their rationale.  Don't get me wrong - the Carter analogy is a very good one, and Obama will lose, but the thing is there is a much larger segment of the electorate that is mistrustful of the GOP than in 1980, simply because it is so clear that they created the depression.

This 'resistance' factor will likely prevent the GOP from winning states like PA and MI, though certainly a GOP landslide is a lot more likely than an Obama landslide.

Here's my map:



Pretty obvious scheme - I think the pink and light blue states do have definite 'leans'.. I can't pick out a lean on NH though.. so I put it gray for true tossup.

[Vasall des Midas]

An actual landslide (like, 72 or even 84 dimensions) is quite unlikely. I'm still thinking a 96 repeat (so, a result that looks like a carbon copy of 2008's at first glance, but isn't really) is the most likely outcome.

[Thomas D]

It will be close if Romney is the nominee. Not sure about the others.

[J. J.]

It will either be close, with a possible Obama victory, or it will be a Republican landslide. 

[ChairmanSanchez]

2000ish close.

[Ember]

I think that in terms of EV's, it will be close no matter who wins, but the popular vote could swing wildly either way. Solidly partisan states like California and Texas take up a lot of EV's.

[rwoy]

Seriously?  Who is the Republican candidate that stands a chance?

Rick "Dumb as a Brick" Perry?  Michelle "My Husband is Gay and Only I don't know it" Bachman?  Rick "Google Me" Santorum?  Sarah "Bat-sh**t Crazy" Palin?

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich seem like the only 2 guys who could make a race of it and they seem to be hated by their own party.  If the GOP had a real candidate they could try ... but they don't so they can't.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I bet 12 will be like 80, 88 and 08: look like a close one for most of the year but end up pretty lopsided.

[Reaper]

Obama will win with 330+ electoral votes.

[OC]

It will be a close one but if the economy gets better or a double dip recession, each party respectively will win around 300 EV.

[TheGlobalizer]

About the same.  We're not staying up for final tallies in CA.

[Swedish Cheese]

Depends on the GOP nominee and the situation.

If the election took place next week I'd say it would be close with Romney as the nominee, a decent edge for Obama against the others. But there's over a year to go so much can change in both directions.

[zorkpolitics]

A month ago I thought it would be close with the edge to Obama.
With a double dip recession looming and Obama approval at 38% in Gallup today, now i expect the GOP nominee would win in a close election.
By next year?  Who knows could end up a blow out either way depending mostly on the economy and partly on the GOP nominee.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

For some reason, everyone here has decided that a double dip is a sure thing all of a sudden.  Most economists are ballparking it as a 1 in 3 chance.  That's a big risk of a downturn but still twice as likely not to happen.