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Author Topic: Tmthforu94's 2012 Congressional Predictions  (Read 2540 times)
tmthforu94
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« on: August 20, 2011, 02:01:15 pm »
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Doing this so my predictions will all kinda stay in one thread which will help me in finding them for later use.

Senate Map (08/20/2011):



Shadings:
30% Blue - Tilt Republican
40% Blue - Lean Republican
60% Blue - Strong Republican
90% Blue - Safe Republican

30% Red - Tilt Democratic
40% Red - Lean Democratic
60% Red - Strong Democratic
90% Red - Safe Democratic

30% Green - Tilt Independent
40% Green - Lean Independent
60% Green - Strong Independent
90% Green - Safe Independent

Some Comments:
Montana and Missouri - I think these races are both toss-ups at this point. With Romney as the nominee, I'd give the GOP a slight edge in Montana, while I think McCaskill is just a hair above Steelman.

Indiana, Maine, and Utah - If Hatch runs as an Indepdent, I think it'll be a tight race between him and Chaffetz. Otherwise, unless Matheson runs, this will be safe for the Republicans. In Maine, if Snowe isn't on the General Election ballot, Democrats will take the seat. And in Indiana, I think both Mourdock and Lugar would beat Donnelly, Lugar would just beat him by a lot more.

Ohio and Michigan - The Michigan GOP got pretty lucky with Hoekstra running. I don't think he'll win, but he'll keep it close and make the Democrats spend money there. Polling currently shows Brown with a sizable lead in Ohio, but I expect that margin to be brought down by Election Day. I still think he'll win that one.

Wisconsin - With the announcement that Feingold won't be running for the Senate seat, this is an excellent opportunity for the GOP to pick-up. I think this may be the election Thompson gets into, since it's an open seat in a decent environment.

I'm holding out on moving some state's until I see who will be running. Examples: Pataki in New York, Rell in Connecticut (unlikely, but I don't think she's ruled it out yet. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong). Whether or not the challenging party fields good candidates in Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, California, etc., will help me determine their percentages at a later time.

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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
A-Bob
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2011, 04:15:11 pm »
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Rell has ruled out any future political office unfortunately.
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2011, 05:01:45 pm »
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I'd put Casey as Strong D. The GOP bench was all either elected or washed out in 2010.

A strong Blue Dog has at least a shot in Tennessee, though it's in a gray area between Lean and Strong.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2011, 05:04:55 pm »
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The GOP bench was all either elected or washed out in 2010.


Don't you mean wahed in?
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2011, 06:46:22 pm »
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The GOP bench was all either elected or washed out in 2010.


Don't you mean wahed in?

Nah, I meant the ones who were primaried/retired. The new state senators/congressmen are too fresh to face the most popular man in the state.
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2011, 06:49:20 pm »
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Snow, how would Welch do? Would he keep it within 10?
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7.35, 3.65

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Snowstalker
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2011, 06:54:41 pm »
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Snow, how would Welch do? Would he keep it within 10?

Given how strong Casey is, I'd say low-to-mid teens.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2011, 09:17:36 pm »
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The GOP bench was all either elected or washed out in 2010.


Don't you mean wahed in?

Nah, I meant the ones who were primaried/retired. The new state senators/congressmen are too fresh to face the most popular man in the state.

^^Yeah, thats what I thought you meant.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2011, 11:39:23 am »
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Senate Map: (9/24/11)



Some notes:
- Montana and Missouri are going to be two very close races. Right now, I have them listed as toss-up's, but Republicans are running some decent candidates in both states. If I had to give one side an edge, I'd give the GOP an edge in both matchups, due to national environment.
- Massachusetts will be competitive, despite early polls suggesting Brown would cruise. I'll have to wait to see some more polling before I move this to toss-up, as right now I think the PPP poll may have been somewhat of a fluke.
- Wisconsin is a really good opportunity for the GOP. Hopefully they'll capitalize and pick a good candidate. There was a lot of uproar in early 2011 with the GOP in Wisconsin, but they seemed to have rebounded nicely by keeping the Senate there. Walker's approval ratings have rebounded, and I think the GOP has an excellent shot at holding both Senate seats.
- Some states, such as California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, I think the Democrats will more than likely win, I'm just keeping them at "Lean Democratic" until we have a better idea of who the GOP candidates will be in each race. Feinstein's approval ratings aren't as hot as they've been the past few years.
- Anyone know what's going on in New Mexico? Haven't heard a lot from there. Could be a potential sleeper seat for the GOP to pick up.

Current Senate: 53-47 Democrats
Map Projection: 50-48, Republicans, with 2 toss-ups
No Toss-ups: 52-48, Republicans (R+5)
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2011, 12:28:36 pm »
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I am in 100% agreement with your map, though the MO GOP bench is as mediocre as the FL one IMO.

NM: Wilson and Heinrich are cruising through their primaries, and Balderas is facing a similar problem to Cruz in Texas: despite high-profile endorsements and being a rising star, can't gain traction in the polls. In the GE, most likely Democratic though Wilson could keep it close.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2011, 04:31:01 pm »
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Senate Map: (9/24/11)



Some notes:
- Montana and Missouri are going to be two very close races. Right now, I have them listed as toss-up's, but Republicans are running some decent candidates in both states. If I had to give one side an edge, I'd give the GOP an edge in both matchups, due to national environment.
- Massachusetts will be competitive, despite early polls suggesting Brown would cruise. I'll have to wait to see some more polling before I move this to toss-up, as right now I think the PPP poll may have been somewhat of a fluke.
- Wisconsin is a really good opportunity for the GOP. Hopefully they'll capitalize and pick a good candidate. There was a lot of uproar in early 2011 with the GOP in Wisconsin, but they seemed to have rebounded nicely by keeping the Senate there. Walker's approval ratings have rebounded, and I think the GOP has an excellent shot at holding both Senate seats.
- Some states, such as California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, I think the Democrats will more than likely win, I'm just keeping them at "Lean Democratic" until we have a better idea of who the GOP candidates will be in each race. Feinstein's approval ratings aren't as hot as they've been the past few years.
- Anyone know what's going on in New Mexico? Haven't heard a lot from there. Could be a potential sleeper seat for the GOP to pick up.

Current Senate: 53-47 Democrats
Map Projection: 50-48, Republicans, with 2 toss-ups
No Toss-ups: 52-48, Republicans (R+5)

Really not looking at the shades -- just at the individual calls. I agree with you on most of them, but I would say Virginia is the true flip-a-coin seat; Missouri ever so slightly leans McCaskill and Montana ever so slightly leans Rehberg.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2011, 09:06:42 pm »
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Senate Map: (11/06/11)



Notes:
- I switched California from Lean Democratic to Strong Democratic. I wanted to wait and see who jumped in to challenge Feinstein, but at this point, I think Obama being on the ballot will make it too hard for any Republican to unseat Senator Feinstein.
- Elizabeth Warren is a competent opponent for Brown, and this is going to be a barnburner. My personal belief is that Warren has a serious chance, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won on Election Night be a decent margin (5-6 points).
- Not sure why I had Virginia as Slight Democratic before - this race is a pure toss-up and will likely stay that way until Election Day.
- At this point, I'm keeping New Jersey and Pennsylvania just as Lean Democratic - I think Democrats will probably win both races but I'm hesitant to move it to Strong until I'm certain of who's running.
- Nevada's polling has tightened, and Heller's fundraising has been less than stellar. Therfore, I'm moving it to Pure Tossup.
- Hatch has dodged two major bullets in Utah, and for that, this seat becomes Safe Republican.
- I think I originally kept some states, such as Rhode Island and Mississippi, from the "Safe" category until I saw the race shape up and see if there was any way the opposing party would make a serious challenge. I'm not seeing that, so a number of states are being moved from Strong to Safe.
- Hawaii trends from Strong Democratic to Lean Democratic with the entrance of Lingle. Would have been a good race if it happened in a midterm.

Current Senate: 53-47 Democrats
Map Projection: 48-47, Republicans, with 5 toss-ups
No Toss-ups: 50-50, Republicans (R+3; Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana. Democratic pick-up in Massachusetts)
^^^I had a complete mental lapse trying to figure out those numbers. Wow...
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2011, 09:08:32 pm »
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One thing I'll say - I think Wisconsin has a better chance of going Democratic than Michigan has of going Republican. Wisconsin is barely Tilt Republican, while Michigan is on the fence between Tilt Democratic and Lean Democratic.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2011, 09:10:54 pm »
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One thing I'll say - I think Wisconsin has a better chance of going Democratic than Michigan has of going Republican. Wisconsin is barely Tilt Republican, while Michigan is on the fence between Tilt Democratic and Lean Democratic.

Agreed. Hoekstra is still 9-10 behind. A better shot would be he or Dr. Dan aiming for the Class II seat should Levin retire in '14.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
tmthforu94
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E: 3.74, S: -2.09


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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2012, 12:57:24 pm »
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Senate Map: (2/27/11)



Notes:
- The map hasn't changed too much since November - I do consider Montana to be slight Republican for now, as Rehburg has led the last three polls there, but it is certainly subject to change.
- Mostly, I strengthed states both for the GOP and Democrats, states I originally held off on shading dark and am just now moving them into the "Safe" category.
- Florida is shaping up to be a barnburner, and has moved from Lean Democratic to Slight Democratic.
- Lingle has remained somewhat close in polls, but with Obama's coattails, I don't see a realistic scenario where she can get a majority of votes.
- Indiana and Maine are not being considered "Safe" until I am assured boh Snowe and Lugar will win their primaries.

With no toss-ups, I'm giving Republicans Nevada, Missouri, and Massachusetts. Kaine narrowly wins in Virgina. That puts the Senate composition at 52-48, GOP.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
tmthforu94
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E: 3.74, S: -2.09


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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2012, 09:14:37 pm »
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Senate Map: (7/18/12)



Notes:
- Maine has gone from Strong Republican to Strong Independent. Similarly, Indiana has gone from Strong Republican to Toss-up due to the GOP primary in the state.
- Hawaii has been shifted to Lean Democratic, as polling from both candidates indicate the race is only in the mid-single digits. I honestly believe that if this had been 2010, Lingle could win. Obama's coattails will be difficult to overcome, though.
- I've had Wisconsin listed as a GOP takeover for quite a while, and I stand by that, regardless of who wins the primary.

If you take toss-ups out, I have Indiana and Massachusetts voting Republican, while Virginia and Florida vote Democratic. This gives the GOP 51 seats, thus, a Senate majority regardless of who is elected President.

What really damaged the GOP was Snowe retiring, which is ironic - so many Tea Partiers wanted to oust her, and that sort of partisanship may have led her to retirement. Had Snowe opted to run for another term, the "RINO" likely would have brought Republicans across the line in terms of Senate majority. Now, I have a feeling it will probably be a tie or very close to it. That extra cushion would have been helpful.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2012, 09:23:32 pm »
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Isn't Lean R a bit generous to Berg, given how well Heitkamp is doing? We've had 4 polls there so far; two show Heitkamp narrowly winning while the other two give Berg single-digit leads (and on e is a Rasmussen).
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2012, 09:30:50 pm »
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Isn't Lean R a bit generous to Berg, given how well Heitkamp is doing? We've had 4 polls there so far; two show Heitkamp narrowly winning while the other two give Berg single-digit leads (and on e is a Rasmussen).
That was the one race I thought a lot on - Berg is not a great candidate, but I do think this is a race he'll pull away in once the election gets going, mainly due to Romney coattails. This is a race where more polling needs to be done, but I think it'll show Berg to have a moderate, consistent lead.

Another race that needs polling, and I'm not a homer, is Indiana. Every poll since the primary has the race a toss-up, yet we're seeing almost no big-time coverage on it. I do think Mourdock will probably slip through - Donnelly's support for Obamacare will simply be too much for him to overcome.
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Upset: Hogan wins in Maryland
Bold Prediction: Deal wins outright, avoiding a runoff
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