Three 2012 scenarios

[Sam Spade]

Until that solid Democratic 46%-47% of the vote shows any sign of fracturing at any level (and it hasn't in the past 20 years), there will be no GOP blowout, unless you consider 52%-53% to be a blowout (I don't).  Sure, Obama's approvals right now are probably in the low to mid-40s, and they could well go lower, but I don't see the necessaries for the fracturing among those 5%-7% who would create the situation, given the mindset of those voters.

Similarly, it is impossible for me to see the Republicans falling under their 2008 total for a whole host of rather obvious reasons, #1 being the economy, which is already in or headed towards recession (if it ever got out of it in the first place).  Functionally, Indiana and NE-2 are completely lost, and I consider the hunt for Georgia to be humorous.  Montana hates incumbents and Missouri's internal movements are bad for Dem hopes.  It would have been possible (though far from probable) to win Arizona in 2008 if McCain were not the nominee, but unlike Nevada or even Colorado, the PVI movement there has been basically nil since the early 1990s (2010 was no different).  If Obama wins by 7%, yes Arizona could be up for grabs, but I doubt anything less will work.  In short, the Republican solids will probably be about the same as the Dem solids have been for this cycle, which would have not necessarily been the case last cycle (46%-47%), and Obama will get less EV than last time, regardless of who the competition is.

So that means we're stuck with the close race and the same states.  But you may not think 52%-47% is close, and that type of result is certainly possible.  It does not have to be within 1%.

The polls are telling you all these things right now, as well as a few intricacies about the only states that really matter.