Three 2012 scenarios

[zorkpolitics]

Three 2012 scenarios:  what is your prediction?

1)   The election reverts to the pattern of 2000 to 2004 and it’s a toss-up that comes down to a single close state (maybe this time VA or CO?)

2)     Like most incumbents, Obama does better in his second term: wining all his 2008 states, plus picking some of the Obama Campaign target states: MO, MT, GA, AZ, TX

3)   Obama’s approval drops into the 30’s and the Republican wins all the Bush states plus most of the recent swing states: MN, PA, WI, OR, ME, OR, WA, NJ

[zorkpolitics]

I think it will be a close election.  No way will Obama do better.

Though Obama's approval rating is likely to be low 40's or high 30's, he is now, and probably still will be, well liked, which goes a long way to mitigating his policy failures, especially with the low information "independent" voters. 

Given that the Republican candidates do not have wide spread likeability/appeal, it will be the GOP election to lose rather than Obama's to win

[zorkpolitics]

Interesting voting, 60% look for a close election, but 20% see a blow out one way or the other.  So will one of the blow groups turn out to be prophetic or are both delusional?