Three 2012 scenarios

[Bull Moose Base]

I think Obama's approval drops into the 30s and he adds Missouri and Georgia but at this point I'm probably just trying to be contrarian.

In truth, the direction of the economy and the Republican primaries are foggy enough that any of your scenarios are in the realm of possibility.  My bet is basically a repeat of the 2008 map with one or two states changing in either direction.