Three 2012 scenarios

[Penelope]

2)     Like most incumbents, Obama does better in his second term: wining all his 2008 states, plus picking some of the Obama Campaign target states: MO, MT, GA, AZ, TX

This, but Texas isn't going to be anywhere near close, and Montana is going to swing further to the GOP this time.

My long-term prediction (for a Dem Victory):

Obama - 369
Romney - 169

[Penelope]

Obama could still lose, and there would be no realignment.  I'd still be saying a realignment is coming.

Uh, care to elaborate?

[Penelope]

Obama could still lose, and there would be no realignment.  I'd still be saying a realignment is coming.

Uh, care to elaborate?

...

Was 2010 a Precursor?  Maybe, but there were other false precursors before, 1910, 1918, 1946, 1966, 1994, and 2006.

Yes, I see your point. All evidence points to 2010 being just another false "precursor" - but this time it will be different!

[Penelope]

J.J., what sort of evidence is there that proves, or at least supports, your notion that 2010 was the beginning of a huge realignment?

Yes, they won a lot of seats. Just like in 1946, and 1994. But there must be more evidence than those nifty lookin' numbers.