I think Obama's approval drops into the 30s and he adds Missouri and Georgia but at this point I'm probably just trying to be contrarian.
In truth, the direction of the economy and the Republican primaries are foggy enough that any of your scenarios are in the realm of possibility. My bet is basically a repeat of the 2008 map with one or two states changing in either direction.
If Obama's approval hits the 30s in October 2012, there is no way he will win Missouri, Georgia, etc. He will definitely lose Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and possibly a lot more.
I believe this will be a close election. It is still Obama's to lose - but the economy is not looking good. To win, the president has to hold four of the following five: Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia and Iowa. Things look good for now - but if the economy continues to sour and the stock market tanks, I have a feeling he'll be upside down vs Romney in all of those states by election day.
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