2012 NDP leadership convention

[DL]

Is there any rationale for the Liberal Party to continue to exist in Canada. How many people fall into the category of "too smart to vote Tory and too rich to vote NDP"?

[RogueBeaver]

Is there any rationale for the Liberal Party to continue to exist in Canada. How many people fall into the category of "too smart to vote Tory and too rich to vote NDP"?

Yes.

[Peter the Lefty]

Is there any rationale for the Liberal Party to continue to exist in Canada.

One word: pot. 

[Hatman]

I don't think the Liberals can get much lower than the high teens. There are too many partisan Liberals out there who will always vote Liberal, plus many live in a Liberal riding with a popular MP.

[DL]

The Liberal vote is probably as low as it can go out west and in Quebec, though at some point a few Liberal MPs with strong personal votes like Goodale or Hedy Fry or some Quebec MPs will retire and then their seats will probably go NDP in a Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca type scenario.

I think that the Liberal vote in Ontario could get eaten away some more in a lot of those 905 ridings where the NDP will probably compete much more strongly in 2015 and will be trying to expand on the Bramalea-Gore-Malton beach head.

The Liberals took 19% last year. If Mulcair works out and the next election is seen as a tight CPC-NDP race, i could easily see the Liberal vote drop another notch to say 14-15% nationwide.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm fervently hoping for a Liberal retake of OO myself, which has become much harder with Tom Mulcair as LOTO and tricky with Rae as Liberal leader. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Quebec: With their current numbers they'd be back at 2004 levels, 20-22 seats. They could get more but as I've said repeatedly, there is absolutely zero infrastructure. Plus Coderre is utterly useless as lieutenant. Cotler will retire- that's an open secret in the Anglo and Jewish communities. He's getting old, clearly past his political prime and was deeply upset at losing the Jewish vote for the first time in his career. Garneau might or might not leave due to his age, I'd say he stays one final term.

Ontario: Brisonomics sells well in 905, but Rae isn't a credible salesman given his Queen's Park record.

[ModerateCoward]

Chances of all 3 parties getting over 90 seats in next election(assuming they expand the total number of seats)?

[adma]

Is there any rationale for the Liberal Party to continue to exist in Canada. How many people fall into the category of "too smart to vote Tory and too rich to vote NDP"?

Well, the Lib (Dem) Party continues to exist in Britain.

And besides, anti-Conservatives need a viable parking spot in seats like Don Valley West.

[RogueBeaver]

Chances of all 3 parties getting over 90 seats in next election(assuming they expand the total number of seats)?

Right now close to nil. but anything can happen in the next 3.5 years. It mostly depends on Quebec IMO. If Harper wins another majority or gets knocked down to a strong minority, unlikely. If Mulcair wins goverment, then nil.

[Hatman]

The Liberal vote is probably as low as it can go out west and in Quebec, though at some point a few Liberal MPs with strong personal votes like Goodale or Hedy Fry or some Quebec MPs will retire and then their seats will probably go NDP in a Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca type scenario.

I think that the Liberal vote in Ontario could get eaten away some more in a lot of those 905 ridings where the NDP will probably compete much more strongly in 2015 and will be trying to expand on the Bramalea-Gore-Malton beach head.

The Liberals took 19% last year. If Mulcair works out and the next election is seen as a tight CPC-NDP race, i could easily see the Liberal vote drop another notch to say 14-15% nationwide.

Yeah, the NDP still has room to grow at the expense of the Liberals in Ontario. The 905 will be tricky, though. Perhaps a couple of seats in Brampton, but not much outside of that. The NDP will do better in small town Ontario, in ridings like Guelph, Sarnia and Peterborough. But of course if polls are to believe, the NDP will have a hard time growing more in Ontario. They're doing better in BC and the prairies, where they're taking directly from Tory votes, not the Liberals.

[Peter the Lefty]

The Liberal vote is probably as low as it can go out west and in Quebec, though at some point a few Liberal MPs with strong personal votes like Goodale or Hedy Fry or some Quebec MPs will retire and then their seats will probably go NDP in a Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca type scenario.

I think that the Liberal vote in Ontario could get eaten away some more in a lot of those 905 ridings where the NDP will probably compete much more strongly in 2015 and will be trying to expand on the Bramalea-Gore-Malton beach head.

The Liberals took 19% last year. If Mulcair works out and the next election is seen as a tight CPC-NDP race, i could easily see the Liberal vote drop another notch to say 14-15% nationwide.

Yeah, the NDP still has room to grow at the expense of the Liberals in Ontario. The 905 will be tricky, though. Perhaps a couple of seats in Brampton, but not much outside of that. The NDP will do better in small town Ontario, in ridings like Guelph, Sarnia and Peterborough. But of course if polls are to believe, the NDP will have a hard time growing more in Ontario. They're doing better in BC and the prairies, where they're taking directly from Tory votes, not the Liberals.

What about the GTA?  Seems like natural territory for NDP growth. 

[Hatman]

905 = the GTA, outside of Toronto. The NDP can still pick up a few Toronto seats, like a couple in Scarborough, Don Valley East (or the new equivalent) and maybe York West. Oh, and Toronto Centre might be possible depending on the new boundaries, and whether or not Bob Rae runs there or in a safer Rosedale based riding. 

[DL]

York West and Etobicoke North are actually the two poorest ridings in Toronto. They will be prime NDP targets in 2015. Last election the NDP more or less ran "paper candidates" in those seats, the Liberal incumbents won't get the same easy ride next time.

[Peter the Lefty]

905 = the GTA, outside of Toronto. The NDP can still pick up a few Toronto seats, like a couple in Scarborough, Don Valley East (or the new equivalent) and maybe York West. Oh, and Toronto Centre might be possible depending on the new boundaries, and whether or not Bob Rae runs there or in a safer Rosedale based riding. 

Oh.  :0 Sorry, that's pretty embarrassing on my part.  Seems like Oshawa might also be a prime target (Tory-held, was also Ed Broadbent's old riding.)

[Senator MaxQue]

Oshara will be hard to take. NDP targets it since long, without any success.
The problem is than the auto industry is getting smaller there and than the place is getting more and more suburban, which is not good for NDP.

But redistricting can help, there, if it cuts the right areas.

[Hatman]

Oshawa has changed too much, but if the NDP does really well, they can win it (we're talking a majority NDP govt). It still has a residual base in the riding, but right now there is a tough ceiling of subarbanites to break through that didn't exist 20 years ago (or existed in smaller numbers)

Not sure if Etobicoke North is a good target, but the demographics are right. Plus, the NDP has won it provincially before (winning in 1995 in fact, if I do recall correctly).

[adma]

Oshawa's changed a lot...but unlike in the post-Rae years, we're dealing with an oppositional rather than third/fourth/fifth-party NDP, which ought to provide a psychological boost in areas like Oshawa that do have NDP history.  And furthermore, a lot of Oshawa's Conservative vote to date has been the default of incumbency/strong-government/safe-choice assumptions--IOW in 2011, it was a bolstered NDP vs a bolstered Conservative party, which in the case of Ontario's Tory-incumbent seats generally tended to favour the Tory incumbent, especially since the NDP surge was mid-campaign out of the blue.

The difference this time is that Oshawa'll have to share its "905 NDP targetability" with an unforeseen number of other 905-belt seats, for any number of reasons.

[Peter the Lefty]

Why would the 905 be so tricky?  Is it the memories of David Miller? 

[canadian1]

Why would the 905 be so tricky?  Is it the memories of David Miller? 

The 905 is pure suburbia and exurbia, and as such is generally incompatible with social-democratic politics in Canada. It excludes the city of Toronto (that's area code 416). Oshawa, as mentioned, was historically the exception to this rule, but that's fading. As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton, that was a particularly strong candidate running first federally, then provincially. The region is simply too wealthy overall to be conducive to an NDP surge, barring a targeted and successful appeal by the party to Asian voters (particularly South Asian).

It isn't that the region is incapable of supporting the NDP (unlike some rural areas in Ontario), it's just that the party is starting from a weak position and has economic arguments that don't play so well to the wealthy 905.

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah, okay.  The city of Toronto itself seems like it could hold lots of potential.  Don Valley East, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Guildwood, York West, Toronto Centre (depending on Bob Rae) and even St. Paul's could go to the NDP quite easily.  Scarborough-Agincourt and York Centre also seem like the long shot that they could still win type. 

Outside of Toronto and maybe a couple of 905 seats, I think Southwestern and Northern Ontario seem the most promising.  Also a lot of ridings like Niagra Falls, St. Catharine's, Brant, Cambridge, etc. seem really impossible at first glance and yet, when you look at them more, don't actually look that unrealistic (turnout levels, demographics, etc). 
Here are the regional results of the poll I mentioned before:
Party:Atlantic Canada/Quebec/Ontario/Mantioba and Saskatchewan/Alberta/B.C.
Conservatives: 39/14/42/41/52/39
NDP: 34/40/30/44/31/43
Liberals: 25/15/24/12/14/13
Greens: 2/2/3/2/3/4
Bloc: 0/28/0/0/0/0

BC results are to be expected.  Alberta is pretty surprising, though.  I'm amazed that the Liberals are still doing as well as they are in Ontario given that Bob Rae seems to be here to stay. 

[ModerateCoward]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

[Smid]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

[Peter the Lefty]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Yeah, probably some.  And they'd probably win Saskatchewan seats, and maybe another one or two in Manitoba.  Possibly another seat in Edmonton, too.

[Peter the Lefty]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

Well, like Hatman said, in BC it's not uncommon for Tory supporters to leapfrog the Liberals and jump directly to the NDP.  They could probably take all of the Vancouver island seats except for Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Fleetwood-Port Kells might be possible, as would, if they REALLY tried, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Delta-Richmond East, and North Vancouver (meh) in addition to the ones you mentioned.

[DL]

Why would the 905 be so tricky?  Is it the memories of David Miller? 

The 905 is pure suburbia and exurbia, and as such is generally incompatible with social-democratic politics in Canada. It excludes the city of Toronto (that's area code 416). Oshawa, as mentioned, was historically the exception to this rule, but that's fading. As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton, that was a particularly strong candidate running first federally, then provincially. The region is simply too wealthy overall to be conducive to an NDP surge, barring a targeted and successful appeal by the party to Asian voters (particularly South Asian).

It isn't that the region is incapable of supporting the NDP (unlike some rural areas in Ontario), it's just that the party is starting from a weak position and has economic arguments that don't play so well to the wealthy 905.

If suburbia is so "incompatible with social democratic values" why do you suppose the NDP regularly wins seats in the Vancouver suburbs in places like Surrey and Burnaby and Coquitlam and Maple Ridge. The 905 region is very diverse. Some seats like Thornhill are very rich an unwinnablr for the NDP but there are demographic trends that are turning Brampton and parts of Mississauga into extensions of Scarborough. There are more and more low income, largely south Asian areas in 905 and as the NDP emerges as the Lear alternative to the Tories, I think you will see some big NDP breakthroughs there next time. Already the latest Ontario poll by Forum Rsearch shows NDP support in the 905 'burbs to be at 30%!