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Author Topic: 2012 NDP leadership convention  (Read 61809 times)
adma
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« Reply #1425 on: April 01, 2012, 10:34:47 am »
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The 905 is pure suburbia and exurbia, and as such is generally incompatible with social-democratic politics in Canada. It excludes the city of Toronto (that's area code 416). Oshawa, as mentioned, was historically the exception to this rule, but that's fading. As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton, that was a particularly strong candidate running first federally, then provincially. The region is simply too wealthy overall to be conducive to an NDP surge, barring a targeted and successful appeal by the party to Asian voters (particularly South Asian).

It isn't that the region is incapable of supporting the NDP (unlike some rural areas in Ontario), it's just that the party is starting from a weak position and has economic arguments that don't play so well to the wealthy 905.

If suburbia is so "incompatible with social democratic values" why do you suppose the NDP regularly wins seats in the Vancouver suburbs in places like Surrey and Burnaby and Coquitlam and Maple Ridge. The 905 region is very diverse. Some seats like Thornhill are very rich an unwinnablr for the NDP but there are demographic trends that are turning Brampton and parts of Mississauga into extensions of Scarborough. There are more and more low income, largely south Asian areas in 905 and as the NDP emerges as the Lear alternative to the Tories, I think you will see some big NDP breakthroughs there next time. Already the latest Ontario poll by Forum Rsearch shows NDP support in the 905 'burbs to be at 30%!

Even Thornhill's present absolute-barrel-bottom NDP weakness might have less to do with income demographics per se than with ethnic-bloc demographics; not unlike how Mount Royal has become the weakest NDP seat in Montreal.  (Though it isn't as if impressions of Mulcair as "pro-Israel" will make Thornhill winnable, either.)

On the whole, I'd agree that the bigger 905 barrier for the NDP is a history of weak ground troups; otherwise, it'd be as viable as it is in much of Greater Vancouver.  The "too-weathy 905" argument pertains more to Oakville or Dufferin-Caledon circumstances than Brampton/Mississauga circumstances--and indeed, Bramalea-Gore-Malton almost did Greater Vancouver one better last time, which may augur surprisingly well...
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« Reply #1426 on: April 01, 2012, 11:49:25 am »
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The suburban areas where the NDP wins in Vancouver are a lot different than the 905. Burnaby and Surrey are much more ethnically diverse and less well off. The areas of suburban Vancouver that are more wealthy, and less diverse tend to be more like the 905 (North Van, Langley, South Surrey, etc)
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« Reply #1427 on: April 01, 2012, 01:01:43 pm »
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But if you're looking towards a majority, then it would be actively stupid to write off the entire area outside Bramela/whatever and Oshawa. You won't win the really affluent areas 'north' of the city, but humdrum suburbia certainly can vote for social democrats under the right circumstances.
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Хahar
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« Reply #1428 on: April 01, 2012, 01:35:09 pm »
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Speaking of North Vancouver, what happened there in 2004 and 2006? Why were those the only times that the Liberals won there?
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« Reply #1429 on: April 01, 2012, 01:37:51 pm »
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Demographic shifts, I believe. They lost them again when the Liberals fell into obscurity.
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« Reply #1430 on: April 01, 2012, 01:59:58 pm »
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But if you're looking towards a majority, then it would be actively stupid to write off the entire area outside Bramela/whatever and Oshawa. You won't win the really affluent areas 'north' of the city, but humdrum suburbia certainly can vote for social democrats under the right circumstances.

But that's not what I was trying to address. I was explaining why the NDP in the 905 had been described as a "difficult" proposition. I never said it was impossible or that they couldn't win there with the right organization, particularly among South Asians.

As for Greater Vancouver, Earl is right that its NDP regions are considerably less wealthy than the 905 generally is. It's also important to note that, as far as I can tell, much of the NDP's strength there comes from organizational efforts over the years that have far surpassed those it's made in the 905. The point is that the 905 is particularly difficult ground in which to build a "wave" of NDP support.

North Vancouver's Liberal results in '04 and '06 can be pinned down to candidate selection. The Liberal, Don Bell, was a former mayor, while Conservative MP Ted White (in '04) and candidate Cindy Silver (in '06) alienated voters with social conservatism and indifference to the riding's large Iranian population.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1431 on: April 01, 2012, 03:09:05 pm »
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Just for reference (and since I was kind of interested after this discussion): ridings in greater Toronto and Vancouver by average household income (rounded to the nearest thousand) and 2011 party (gathered using the Pundits Guide database of census data):

Don Valley West 110*
Oakville 106
Thornhill 101
Oak Ridges - Markham 99
Eglinton - Lawrence 92
Pickering - Scarborough East 92
St. Paul's 92
Newmarket - Aurora 92
Vaughan 92
Vancouver Quadra 92
Mississauga - Erindale 91
Markham - Unionville 91
Mississauga South 89
Mississauga - Streetsville 88
Richmond Hill 87
Brampton - Springdale 87
Etobicoke Centre 84
Ajax - Pickering 83
Toronto Centre 83
Whitby - Oshawa 80
Mississauga - Brampton South 80
West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country 77
Willowdale 75
North Vancouver 74
South Surrey - White Rock - Cloverdale 72
Brampton West 72
Bramalea - Gore - Malton 71
Etobicoke - Lakeshore 71
Delta - Richmond East 70
Trinity - Spadina 70
Port Moody - Westwood - Port Coquitlam 68
Fleetwood - Port Kells 68
Newton - North Delta 67
Scarborough - Rouge River 66
Beaches - East York 64

Mississauga East - Cooksville 63
Scarborough - Agincourt 63
Don Valley East 62
Parkdale - High Park 62
Toronto - Danforth 61
Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge - Mission 60
York Centre 59

New Westminster - Coquitlam 59
Richmond 59
Oshawa 58

Burnaby - Douglas 58
Scarborough Centre 57
Etobicoke North 56
Vancouver Kingsway 55
Vancouver South 55
Scarborough - Guildwood 55
Scarbrough Southwest 55
Vancouver Centre 53**
Burnaby - New Westminster 53
Davenport 53
Surrey North 50

York West 48
York South - Weston 47
Vancouver East 38


* This despite containing some significant low-income South Asian areas in the southeast that vote very differently from the rest of the riding. You could get a very rich riding here with slightly different boundaries.

** This is the only riding in either metro with no significant area of families with children and so is penalized by the use of household rather than per capita income.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2012, 07:30:45 pm by The Great Pumpkin »Logged
Hatman
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« Reply #1432 on: April 01, 2012, 03:13:50 pm »
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I think that proves why suburban Vancouver votes NDP and suburban Toronto doesn't.
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« Reply #1433 on: April 01, 2012, 06:49:31 pm »
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...then there is suburban Montreal (aka: the "450" belt) which went totally NDP last May with the NDP even winning Pierrefonds-Dollard which is quite upper middle class and includes a lot of Jewish "nouveau riche" areas that are quite similar to Thornhill - so go figure!
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« Reply #1434 on: April 01, 2012, 07:13:08 pm »
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So are there really no inner suburbs in the 905 area that would be voting NDP? I would think that some Interior BC seats would swing towards NDP. Seems to me only Vancouver South is a natural swing in the Vancouver area, the rest are either way too suburban or the fundie land(valley). Vancouver Island seats also seem somewhat easy to swing to NDP.
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« Reply #1435 on: April 01, 2012, 07:48:43 pm »
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The suburban areas where the NDP wins in Vancouver are a lot different than the 905. Burnaby and Surrey are much more ethnically diverse and less well off. The areas of suburban Vancouver that are more wealthy, and less diverse tend to be more like the 905 (North Van, Langley, South Surrey, etc)

Though increasingly *less* significantly different--and it's safe to say that some of the 905 seats lower on the average-household-income list (say, Miss E-Cooksville) *could* now be targetable on Surrey/Burnaby grounds, esp. if the NDP actually start looking like a viable proposition for more than just poteaux-level candidates now that they're Official Opposition.

Have you ever been to Mississauga or Brampton these days?  They're absolutely ethnically diverse.  (And as proof that average-household-income doesn't always jibe with political inclinations, one of the seats lowest on that list, Richmond, has *never* been much on NDP radar, federally or provincially.)
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Hatman
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« Reply #1436 on: April 01, 2012, 08:42:36 pm »
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Brampton and Mississauga are possibilities due to ethnic communities, I agree.

...then there is suburban Montreal (aka: the "450" belt) which went totally NDP last May with the NDP even winning Pierrefonds-Dollard which is quite upper middle class and includes a lot of Jewish "nouveau riche" areas that are quite similar to Thornhill - so go figure!

Quebec is a totally different place, you know that Tongue It's a different culture completely. And the Jewish areas in Pierrefonds-Dollard did not go NDP.
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« Reply #1437 on: April 01, 2012, 10:20:00 pm »
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There are other suburban areas of Canadian cities where the NDP does very well. For example, there are parts of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (i.e. the Stoney Creek part) and Hamilton Mountain that are very suburban that vote NDP, ditto with Peter Stoffer's riding in Halifax. In Winnipeg the NDP sweeps the suburbs in provincial elections.

One thing to kep in mind is that our definition of what is "suburban" is always changing. Scarborough used to be considered a stereotypical suburb of Toronto full of post war bungalows and cookie cutter houses etc...now it tends to be seen as part of Toronto and now we think of places much further out as being "suburbs"...meanwhile the NDP won two seats in Scarborough last May.

I think that the obvious area for the NDP to target is Brampton - which will have 5 seats by 2015 after redistribution. Apparently the NDP now has over 1,000 members in Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Jagmeet Singh and Co. are aggrressively expanding the beach head into the other Brampton ridings. By 2015 I think that an NDP official opposition with a slate of very strong candidates from the South Asian community running across Brampton would probably suck up the remnants of the Liberal vote and be very competitive. In Vancouver the NDP tends to win ridings with large South Asian populations and this trend is starting to be seen in Toronto as well in places like Scarborough Rouge River and BGM, this trend will only accelerate. Other "suburban" seats like Etobicoke North, York West and Don Valley East also have large Muslim and Afro-Canadian populations - two other communities that tend to hate the Conservatives for obvious reasons. 
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« Reply #1438 on: April 01, 2012, 10:35:51 pm »
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Hamilton Mountain is semi-suburban, but it has always been the least NDP friendly part of urban Hamilton. The Stoney Creek part of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is actually pretty conservative, and I can't recall if it went NDP in 2011 or not, but it would be the first time if it did.

As for Peter Stoffer's riding, it's not that affluent, but remember it's not so much an NDP riding as a Peter Stoffer riding. That man has to be one of the best constituency MPs there are.

And as for Winnipeg, yes the provincial NDP wins suburban parts of Winnipeg, but that has been fairly recent due to the moderate polices of Doer/Selinger and the federal NDP has yet to win in these areas, although I would certainly be targeting them for 2015.

But you know, if Harper is very unpopular in 2015, it won't be too hard to see some strange things happening in Ontario. Just look at the 1990 by-election in York North. The NDP had no business coming in a strong 2nd there. However, the party was immensely popular around that time.
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« Reply #1439 on: April 02, 2012, 06:45:42 am »
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When it comes to the NDP winning in the 905, they need not only to field strong candidates, but they need to be seen as the only alternative to the Tories, not just the best alternative.
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« Reply #1440 on: April 02, 2012, 07:14:21 am »
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And another thing which'll have to help the NDP in the 905 is if prominent ex-Liberals in the area incline in their direction--maybe not altogether doing a Francoise Boivin, but...
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« Reply #1441 on: April 02, 2012, 08:02:29 am »
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Singh running in the leadership race, and focusing much of the membership drive around the SA community has done nothing but help the party develop itself there. Same can be said about Jagmeet in the 905, hes also very young and social media savy which helps the party in general.
The majority gives the NDP 4 years to build in these target areas; your seeing strong candidates start to step up in SWON and small-city/mixed ridings like Hatman mentioned (Grant Robertson is one, in Huron-Bruce), also some candidates just won cause they have been the perenial candidate (Dan Harris in SSW who ran 6 or 7 times and was the most familiar of all three candidates in May). Some riding sjust swing with the government (Peterborough was known as a swing riding) In Oshawa, the NDP needs to nominate someone from outside the Union, i agree with everyone the demographics are changing to a less industrial more commuter community. Someone with municipal experience would help attract those who are more tory leaning to some degree.
Another area the NDP can target is those few ridings in the Niagara that we not NDP (St. Catherines and Niagara Falls) which was mentioned earlier too. Eastern Ontario is going to be the toughest place but as we saw in May in places like Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry... an area where we were excited to hit 5%, we tied the Liberals federally and almost provincially... I don't think there is much chance of a pickup unless the MPs retire and NDP continues to surge, but we can't overlook those areas either.
Also, i would hope with Mulcairs win he can attract (or should be trying to) some more candidates in SASK/MAN who were former ministers or MLA, some like Janice MacKinnon.

We can speculate but it all depends on how the ridings are re-oriented for 2015. Great Discussion so far.
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« Reply #1442 on: April 02, 2012, 02:18:45 pm »
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Apparently Cullen narrowly won the convention votes but Mulcair won all the others.
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« Reply #1443 on: April 02, 2012, 05:02:44 pm »
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Oh, it's on pudit's guide. Too bad there's no provincial numbers.
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« Reply #1444 on: April 02, 2012, 05:10:37 pm »
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Oh, it's on pudit's guide. Too bad there's no provincial numbers.

In a delegated convention, do you think Cullen could have edged Mulcair on the final ballot with those numbers?
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« Reply #1445 on: April 02, 2012, 05:19:58 pm »
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Oh, it's on pudit's guide. Too bad there's no provincial numbers.

In a delegated convention, do you think Cullen could have edged Mulcair on the final ballot with those numbers?

Depends on how the delegates were chosen.
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« Reply #1446 on: April 02, 2012, 08:09:35 pm »
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In terms of the NDP getting the seats necessary to win, I can only see them winning through three possible scenarios

1.  People become so disgusted with the Tories they turn en masse towards whichever party is most likely to defeat them which go be either the NDP or Liberals depending on the cirumstance.  Otherwise an election similiar to 1984 and 1993 and in this case the NDP or Liberals would win in a whole whack of ridings they normally aren't competitive in.

2.  Coalition - The Tories get reduced to a minority, NDP forms the official opposition, the Liberals + NDP have more than half the seats so they form a coalition and thus the government.

3.  The Tories win another majority and the two parties realize merging is the only option much like the Alliance and PCs had to do.  Considering Mulcair is more centrist than most previous NDP leaders and Rae is more left wing than any leader since Trudeau, the ideological gap is much smaller than it has been in some time.  If a blue Liberal like John Manley or Frank McKenna were leader I could understand the uneasiness about merging and likewise if a more ideological socialist like Topp was the leader I could understand why some Liberals would be reluctant to merge, but as it stands now the hard left are a small faction of the party and of the Blue Liberals, most although not all have already gone over to the Tories anyways.  In the end I believe Canada will have a two party system with the Liberal Democrats on the left and Conservatives on the right. 

In this scenario Quebec will usually go Liberal Democrat except when the Tories have a Quebec leader and the LibDems have an Anglo leader from outside Quebec, Atlantic Canada could go either way, Ontario will lean Tory but be competitive and the same for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while BC will be a battleground with a slight edge for the Tories and Alberta will go solidly Tory off course.
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« Reply #1447 on: April 02, 2012, 08:28:29 pm »
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In terms of the suburbs, being from Vancouver originally and now in Toronto I can shed some light on the circumstances.  I should note many wealthy as well as centre-right voters will happily switch to the Liberals but would never consider going NDP.  Ridings like Oakville, Newmarket-Aurora, Thorhill, North Vancouver, Richmond are all ones the Tories could lose under the right circumstances to the Liberals but never the NDP.  The NDP appeal largely to those on the left thus asides from some protest votes most will come from the Liberals.  They could also gain amongst new immigrants as well as youth voters who traditionally have a low turnout.  Obama won in part in 2008 by bringing out many centre-left voters who normally don't vote. 

As for the 905 belt, Oshawa is trending Conservative but the NDP still has some support in the older parts of the city.  If split between North Oshawa and South Oshawa, North Oshawa will off course go Conservative, but I suspect the NDP would have a strong edge on South Oshawa.  As for Brampton and Mississauga, it is possible they could be like Scarborough although the Tories got in the 40s as opposed to 30s meaning they pretty much have to take all the Liberal votes as I doubt many Tory voters will swing over.  I would argue the NDP in Ontario should focus more on the 519 area code rather than 905.  Cities like Cambridge, Brantford, parts of Essex, Woodstock, Straford, St. Thomas, and Sarnia all have a large number of blue collar workers who have traditionally been favourable to the NDP, but in recent years have swung to the right.  The problem is these ridings include rural areas where the NDP gets clobbered thus making them harder to win as well as much like the Democrats have struggled in some of the blue collar areas of Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, the Liberals and NDP have faced the same problems in Southwestern Ontario.  They need to find a way to connect to those voters without alienating many of the urban progressives which is the challenge.  The 905 belt is no more Conservative than the Vancouver suburbs, in fact in the previous three elections, the Tories did better in the Vancouver suburbs than Toronto ones.  Only in the last election did the Tories do better in the Toronto suburbs.  Much of this is due to the fact in the previous three elections, the Liberals were the main opponent and they are more competitive in the 905 belt than GVRD whereas the NDP is stronger in the GVRD than 905 belt thus which one the Tories do better in depends on whom their opponent is. 

In terms of the GVRD, North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, and Richmond are the closest to the 905 belt.  If the Liberals are the main opponent, they are quite competitive as we saw in 2004 and 2006, but if it is the NDP they go solidly Tory.  The same happens provincially as in 1991 they went for the more centrist Liberals as opposed to the more right wing Social Credit and only when Campbell took over in 1996 did they go solidly BC Liberal.  I suspect next provincial election, they will opt for the Liberals over the upstart BC Conservatives although the NDP will probably win North Vancouver-Lonsdale due to vote splitting on the right.  The Eastern Suburbs and Northern Surrey are more favourable to the NDP as they are more working class and have a stronger union base.  As a general rule of thumb, excluding the RAV line, any riding the SkyTrain line passes through is at least competitive if not favourable to the NDP while those off the SkyTrain line tend to be either solidly Conservative or Liberal/Conservative battlegrounds.  The same happens provincially where the battlegrounds or NDP wins are in the SkyTrain ridings while the non-SkyTrain ridings usually go solidly BC Liberal or whatever the pro free enterprise coalition is.  Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam is somewhat complicated since although the NDP is competitive in Port Coquitlam, the Westwood Plateau is much like the North Shore and Richmond in terms of voting patterns.  Of the suburban ridings they don't hold, Fleetwood-Port Kells and Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission are the only ones they have an outside chance of winning.  Delta-Richmond East and South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale are semi rural so similiar to York-Simcoe, Durham, and Wellington-Halton Hills whereas the Fraser Valley is arguably one of the most Conservative areas outside of Alberta so no real comparison in Ontario.  You could have two right wing parties running there and the battle would be between them assuming the vote was evenly split. 

In terms of ethnic groups, I agree the South Asians and Blacks are communities the NDP has strong potential from, but much like amongst the White Canadian population, income, age, location also have an impact.  The Chinese community generally favoured the Liberals until recently, but not surprisingly has swung heavily over to the Conservatives.  I should note as a personal observation, I know many second generation Chinese-Canadians who are left of centre, otherwise even if winning the Chinese community is tough for the NDP, they could do well amongst the second generation here.
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« Reply #1448 on: April 02, 2012, 08:53:53 pm »
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Oshara will be hard to take. NDP targets it since long, without any success.
The problem is than the auto industry is getting smaller there and than the place is getting more and more suburban, which is not good for NDP.

But redistricting can help, there, if it cuts the right areas.

If split between East Oshawa and West Oshawa, probably the same as now.  If split between North Oshawa and South Oshawa, then I think the NDP would have the edge in South Oshawa, but the Tories would easily take North Oshawa.
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« Reply #1449 on: April 02, 2012, 08:55:53 pm »
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So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

Vancouver Centre is unlikely with the current boundaries but quite possible under redistribution.  The problem is it includes the high end condos in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, but if a new riding excludes those, then I would say they have a good chance.  Provincially Vancouver-West End went solidly NDP last provincial election, but Vancouver-False Creek went solidly BC Liberal.  Vancouver Island North has been a tight race in all of the last four elections while the main problem with Nanaimo-Alberni is the resource communities where the NDP is strongest are losing people while communities like Parksville and Qualicum Beach which have a large affluent senior population are rapidly growing.  If the redistribution creates a riding from Departure Bay in Nanaimo to Comox and the splits the rest in two, you will then get a safe Conservative riding and two NDP ones as it would concentrate the Conservative votes into one riding.  Vancouver South usually votes NPA municipally and BC Liberal provincially so not likely never mind there are three times as many Chinese as South Asian voters so it is more like Richmond than Surrey.  West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country could go Liberal but definitely not NDP.  Although the NDP has a slight edge some times in the Sunshine Coast, Squamish, and Bowen Island, they are lucky if they can get even 10% in West Vancouver which is one of the richest if not the richest municipality in Canada.  Whistler is not Conservative, but not NDP either.  More Green Party and Liberal as it is a ski resort so quite liberal, but fairly wealthy too.  The clobbering the NDP will get in West Vancouver pretty much puts this out of reach unless the new riding somehow excludes both West Vancouver and Lions Bay which are NDP dead zones.
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