2012 NDP leadership convention
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #1500 on: April 08, 2012, 01:51:42 PM »

And yet for their projected seat totals, they give the NDP 15. WTF?
I know.  Based on the 2011 results, I'd say probably closer to:
PC's-49
Liberals-34
NDP-24
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lilTommy
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« Reply #1501 on: April 09, 2012, 08:06:45 AM »

Well, in theory, yes, but it all depends how effectively the NDP can use their position during the current budget. If it doesn't work out, an election might look good for Andrea. I mean, Hudak's a total tool and McGuinty is toxic.

15 seats? Sounds wrong. It's probably based on their crappy regional results. No way that the PC is ahead in Northern Ontario - it's probably closer to 45 NDP/30 PC/20 Lib. Small subsamples, margins of error, etc etc.


Léger federal poll: 33 NDP/32 CPC/19 LBP/8 Green

QC: 47 NDP/ 29 BQ/ 10 CPC/ 10 LBP
ON: 39 CPC/ 26 NDP/ 25 LBC

Ugh, even the provincial NDP is beating the federal party now.

There was an interesting articule in teh Globe about Adnrea and weather or not pushing an election for short term possible gains is best; I agree witht he comments that its best to work with the Liberals, it shows that Andrea can be a serious negotiator (reminisent of Jack in that sense) and in the meantime the NDP is getting all kinds of attention for the proposals they are making for Budget changes... the tories look bad for saying "No, Not at all " and now have zero attention while the NDP and Liberals negotiate.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/adam-radwanski/why-ontarios-ndp-isnt-drawing-a-line-in-the-budgetary-sand/article2392569/
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1502 on: April 09, 2012, 04:01:15 PM »

There seems to be a bit of a "time lag" in Ontario, with the Liberals still polling around 25%.    It will have to become clear to Ontarians that the NDP is *the* opposition party.  With Mulcair at the helm - the NDP really can start to look like the "new Liberals."  The "orange wave" already hit suburban Toronto and I don't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their showing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton to other Brampton seats, and pick up Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  They do after all win these types of seats in suburban Vancouver.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP can make inroads into what remains of the Liberal base - affluent socially liberal urban professionals, too educated to vote Conservative and too rich to vote NDP.  Or can the Libs survive as a "boutique party" for this constituency?  If Mulcair and the NDP is able to crack into this constituency , a seat like St. Paul's is in play for the NDP.  On the other hand I can see a scenario where the Libs go down to 15% and have St. Paul's be the only Liberal seat in Ontario, akin to River Heights in the Manitoba legislature.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1503 on: April 09, 2012, 04:06:20 PM »

There seems to be a bit of a "time lag" in Ontario, with the Liberals still polling around 25%.    It will have to become clear to Ontarians that the NDP is *the* opposition party.  With Mulcair at the helm - the NDP really can start to look like the "new Liberals."  The "orange wave" already hit suburban Toronto and I don't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their showing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton to other Brampton seats, and pick up Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  They do after all win these types of seats in suburban Vancouver.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP can make inroads into what remains of the Liberal base - affluent socially liberal urban professionals, too educated to vote Conservative and too rich to vote NDP.  Or can the Libs survive as a "boutique party" for this constituency?  If Mulcair and the NDP is able to crack into this constituency , a seat like St. Paul's is in play for the NDP.  On the other hand I can see a scenario where the Libs go down to 15% and have St. Paul's be the only Liberal seat in Ontario, akin to River Heights in the Manitoba legislature.

Or maybe the Liberals aren't dead?
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adma
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« Reply #1504 on: April 09, 2012, 08:13:17 PM »

The "orange wave" already hit suburban Toronto and I don't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their showing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton to other Brampton seats, and pick up Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  They do after all win these types of seats in suburban Vancouver.

Though a barrier in Ajax-Pickering might be if Mark Holland runs again for the Grits.  (Still, in a seat like that, the NDP ought to try harder than the last couple of poteaux-level outings--the last one where the candidate locked himself out of campaigning through a pre-booked vacation.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1505 on: April 09, 2012, 08:45:15 PM »

The "orange wave" already hit suburban Toronto and I don't see why they can't sweep Scarborough, expand from their showing in Bramalea-Gore-Malton to other Brampton seats, and pick up Mississauga East-Cooksville, Ajax-Pickering, etc.  They do after all win these types of seats in suburban Vancouver.

Though a barrier in Ajax-Pickering might be if Mark Holland runs again for the Grits.  (Still, in a seat like that, the NDP ought to try harder than the last couple of poteaux-level outings--the last one where the candidate locked himself out of campaigning through a pre-booked vacation.)

Ajax-Pickering appears too wealthy and suburban to go NDP.  After all much of the assumption goes on the idea that every Liberal vote would vote NDP if the Liberals weren't around.  I think ridings like York West and the Scarborough ones are far more likely.  Also if it looks like the NDP cannot beat the Tories in seats but can reduce them to a minority and form a coalition, you may see a lot of strategic voting thus Ajax-Pickering would then go Liberal.  As for ridings like St. Paul's, you might see the Liberals split right down the middle or perhaps even go Conservative despite disagreeing with their social policies.  Vancouver-False Creek in BC goes for the BC Liberals and it has a similiar profile to St. Paul's.  In addition in Ajax-Pickering, the Tories got 45% so it would be tough to win that riding without pulling away some Tory votes.  A riding like Don Valley East or Scarborough Centre is more doable since the Tories got under 40% and the NDP over 25% in both.
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adma
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« Reply #1506 on: April 10, 2012, 06:40:35 AM »

Ajax-Pickering appears too wealthy and suburban to go NDP.  After all much of the assumption goes on the idea that every Liberal vote would vote NDP if the Liberals weren't around.  I think ridings like York West and the Scarborough ones are far more likely.  Also if it looks like the NDP cannot beat the Tories in seats but can reduce them to a minority and form a coalition, you may see a lot of strategic voting thus Ajax-Pickering would then go Liberal.  As for ridings like St. Paul's, you might see the Liberals split right down the middle or perhaps even go Conservative despite disagreeing with their social policies.  Vancouver-False Creek in BC goes for the BC Liberals and it has a similiar profile to St. Paul's.  In addition in Ajax-Pickering, the Tories got 45% so it would be tough to win that riding without pulling away some Tory votes.  A riding like Don Valley East or Scarborough Centre is more doable since the Tories got under 40% and the NDP over 25% in both.

For the record, the geography encompassed by Ajax-Pickering "went NDP" provincially under Bob Rae in '90 (Scarborough-Rouge River didn't).  And while one can offer the suburban-growth counter-argument; in truth (such was Layton's reach) a lot of the highest-growth, newest suburban development was actually *above* the seat's NDP par last time.  So, transposed to 1990ish patterns, that might mean a solider, not weaker, hypothetical grip. 

So, nothing should be ruled out, even the "NDP pulling away Tory votes" prospect.  But yes, I agree that York West, DVE, the Scarborough seats are more likely--I don't think anyone's disputing that, even those offering hypotheses on behalf of Ajax-Pickering...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #1507 on: April 10, 2012, 07:50:04 AM »

I Agree that Durham region is much more demographically favourable to the NDP then say York (incomes are not as high, industrial history in the Auto sector (blue collar jobs), 90 win history in almost all the old ridings). Once we have redistribution ridings like Oshawa (if split on a N-S) become huge targets, as well as others... but If Holland runs and Flaherty runs those are two stars and the NDP really wont have a shot unless we can come up with equal stars.
The NDP did best in scarboroughs working class ridings, ethniclly diverse ridings and some older working class areas... Agincourt is solid Liberal, but Rathika and Harris now can work to target Centre, Guildwood (wealthier so less favourable) and Agincourt.
Peel is not an area to overlook either but ethnic voting paterns will be more important here, as in getting more strong south asian candidates running particularly in Brampton.
I don't agree that Vancouver-False Creek is like St. Pauls though... St.Pauls feel like old money (Forest Hill, Mount Pleasant), with a mix of mid-town yuppie. I don't see that in VFC, which is new money... maybe the yuppie thing is comparable Tongue
Give Ontario some time, you saw hoe long it took for us to buy-into the Conservative story; in fact i think the Liberals need to strengthen themselves so tehy can win ridings the NDP have no chance at (Etobicoke Centre, Eglington-Lawrence, Don Valley West) those would be gains from the Cons. No matter what i think the Liberals will never die in ontario, particularly in Urban cores like Ottawa and Toronto...The NDP should also be targeting University ridings (Kingston, Guelph, Peterborough, St. Catherines) These are ridings the NDP can to some degree win over with Mulcairs emphasis on economic management, strong policy can play well, some of these are also industrial (or former) cities.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1508 on: April 10, 2012, 06:09:42 PM »

Good points from everyone.  I do think that while there are "working class populists" particularly in the SW and north that the NDP can target, the 25% Liberal vote province-wide is hurting more than helping the NDP and the NDP really needs to bury the Liberals.  Certainly that is the case in Scarborough, Brampton, etc. and most of the GTA and that's true in places like Kitchener-Waterloo also. 

There may be a few affluent ridings, as Tommy mentions, like DVW where a strong Liberal showing can knock off a Tory.  But they are few and far between, as even polling at Dion-like levels in Ontario seems utopian at this point.  The question again is do the Libs try to be a catch-all party or do they restyle themselves as a boutique party for affluent professionals? (Tommy's "midtown yuppies" are just about the only reliably Liberal constituency left at this point!)  And the question regarding Mulcair is, does he come off enough of a small "l" liberal to be seen as "safe" for the professional classes? Ultimately I think the NDP wants the "Obama coalition" which is basically the social democratic universe (which the NDP now dominates) + affluent "liberal" professionals (still very Liberal).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1509 on: April 10, 2012, 07:34:39 PM »

Good points from everyone.  I do think that while there are "working class populists" particularly in the SW and north that the NDP can target, the 25% Liberal vote province-wide is hurting more than helping the NDP and the NDP really needs to bury the Liberals.  Certainly that is the case in Scarborough, Brampton, etc. and most of the GTA and that's true in places like Kitchener-Waterloo also. 

There may be a few affluent ridings, as Tommy mentions, like DVW where a strong Liberal showing can knock off a Tory.  But they are few and far between, as even polling at Dion-like levels in Ontario seems utopian at this point.  The question again is do the Libs try to be a catch-all party or do they restyle themselves as a boutique party for affluent professionals? (Tommy's "midtown yuppies" are just about the only reliably Liberal constituency left at this point!)  And the question regarding Mulcair is, does he come off enough of a small "l" liberal to be seen as "safe" for the professional classes? Ultimately I think the NDP wants the "Obama coalition" which is basically the social democratic universe (which the NDP now dominates) + affluent "liberal" professionals (still very Liberal).


That assumes all Liberal votes would automatically migrate to the NDP.  As we have seen since 2004, just as many have migrated to the Tories as NDP, thus the Liberals disappearing may help them in some ridings, but in the case of some 905 belt ridings could have the opposite impact in terms of making them safe Tory seats.  Also in 2004, only 31% went Tory in Ontario, whereas in 2011 it was 44% so approximately 13% swung from the Liberals to Tories between that time.  The Liberals are centrist enough they could probably under the right conditions regain that 13%, but I doubt very many of them would jump all the way over to the NDP.  I agree it would take a few elections for the Liberals to return to their previous strength in Ontario and unless the right splits again I don't think you will see a repeat of the 90s when they swept Ontario, but I think the 2008 results are quite realistic for 2015 and the 2006 results are probably the best case scenario.  Lets remember, if you take Quebec out of the picture, the Liberals and NDP aren't that far apart and as we have seen Quebec can change on a moment's notice so if Quebec swings over to the Liberals they would return to opposition.  Those saying the Liberals are dead and the NDP will replace them is much like those in 1993 who said the Reform Party would wipe out the PCs and replace them.  While they did sort of do that, that was only through merging, they didn't wipe them out on their own and probably couldn't. 
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1510 on: April 10, 2012, 08:08:36 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2012, 08:22:25 PM by King of Kensington »

I'm not assuming anything, except to say that in order for the NDP that have to win in Ontario they'd have to drive down the Liberal vote significantly. 

It's important to remember too that while it's true that more Liberals defected to the Tories than to the NDP in Ontario over the past 3 elections, I think the Tories have come closer to hitting their ceiling while the NDP has more room for growth.  According to an Ekos poll in May, the NDP was the 2nd choice over the Tories among Liberal voters by 5-1.   Doesn't mean all those votes will go there, but if it's clear that the NDP is *the* opposition party assuming a quarter or a third of Liberals would go NDP is not unreasonable.  

Also keep in mind the 905 region is hardly homogeneous.  York Region for instance is too nouveau riche to go NDP but it's now a Tory stronghold.  But Peel and Durham regions are filled with the types of ridings that go NDP in other parts of the country, like their counterparts in the Lower Mainland of BC.
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adma
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« Reply #1511 on: April 10, 2012, 08:46:51 PM »

I'm not assuming anything, except to say that in order for the NDP that have to win in Ontario they'd have to drive down the Liberal vote significantly. 

Well, two things would help: Liberal non-incumbency in critical seats, and official opposition status raising NDP efforts beyond skeleton token level.

Don't forget that a few existing Liberal incumbents, like Judy Sgro, are getting up there in years and could well retire by 2015...
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1512 on: April 10, 2012, 08:49:16 PM »

Yes, a very large percentage of the Liberal caucus is over 60. 
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