2012 NDP leadership convention

[MaxQue]

Something interesting about the debates from an interview with Saganash in a Abitibi newspaper.

The Vancouver, Winnipeg and Halifax debates will be in English.
The Montreal and Quebec ones will be in French.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Even restricting ourselves to economic issues there are at least three significant issues here, and assimilating them all to a single left vs. right spectrum is not helpful:

a) how much taxation and spending there is;

b) whether the government owns enterprises, or in a milder version, whether it at least supports and subsidizes certain industries;

c) how much labour market regulation there is; i.e. how restricted is hiring and firing, how much role does labour have in corporate governance.

These don't always match up by any means. Contrast, say, (a) and (b) in present-day Scandinavia with early 1980's France. In Scandinavia the % of GDP in the public sector is much higher than in Anglophone countries, and the welfare state correspondingly more generous, but the government doesn't own all that much, and even services we normally think of as public are often privatized. In Denmark for example private companies provide most local fire rescue services, and the post office is quasi-privatized (though the government still holds a stock). France, by contrast, never developed the comprehensive welfare state of present-day Denmark, but prior to the privatizations of the mid-1980's Mitterrand/Chirac cohabitation, the central government owned all kinds of firms that strike us as weird to be state-owned: the auto manufacturer Renault, the materials manufacturer Saint-Gobain, the advertising firm Havas, the bank Société Générale, etc. For (c) consider that Germany, even under Angela Merkel, has lots of labour involvement in corporate governance that would seem quite radical in Canada: for example corporate boards of directors are elected partially by shareholders and partially by employees rather than purely by shareholders.

Topp and (less aggressively) Mulcair seem to basically want to concentrate on (a) while being less interested in (b) and (c). Nash seems more open in her rhetoric to some combination of (b) and (c), though it's hard to tell exactly what combination given that she (like the others) hasn't come out with a detailed economic policy platform.

[RogueBeaver]

Well, they will most likely be choosing either Topp or Mulcair. Nash would need an urban prog image makeover to sell here IMO.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/

[DL]

Well, they will most likely be choosing either Topp or Mulcair. Nash would need an urban prog image makeover to sell here IMO.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/

Actually, if I was a betting man (no Mitt Romney $10,000 bets thank you very much) i would put my money on Peggy Nash winning this thing. I don't think she needs much of an "urban prog" makeover - she already is a quintessential urban progressive and the people working on her campaign seem to be all the young, trendy urban types.

[MaxQue]

She understood a thing about Quebec, at least.

In Quebec news, she decided to complain about her fellow candidates which aren't bilingual, saying it is making no sense to run if you don't really talk French.

[RogueBeaver]

She understood a thing about Quebec, at least.

In Quebec news, she decided to complain about her fellow candidates which aren't bilingual, saying it is making no sense to run if you don't really talk French.

Valid complaints, so long as she remembers that she'll need their delegates in March.

[MaxQue]

She understood a thing about Quebec, at least.

In Quebec news, she decided to complain about her fellow candidates which aren't bilingual, saying it is making no sense to run if you don't really talk French.

Valid complaints, so long as she remembers that she'll need their delegates in March.

Delegates? Wrong race, I think.

[Peter the Lefty]

I guess, from the debate, that my first choice would now be Nathan Cullen, if I were an NDP member.  I loved his sense of humor.  I also like his ideas about Proportional Representation and perhaps if Canada adopts it then it might possibly get the ball rolling on the issue here in the US (of course, no one's ever heard of it here...yet, at least).  And shockingly, my second choice would be Mulcair.  He seemed very well composed and skilled, and I actually think he'd do well as leader.  My third choice: probably Nash.  I liked her talk about an inclusive economy (as someone in the US, I long for such an economy to an amazing extent).  Dewar was very dull in English, and though I don't speak it, I could tell he was even duller in French.  I like Topp's ideas and policies, but I didn't like his style, especially the interrupting.  Saganash seems like he needs to learn a few relaxation exercises, frankly.  Chisholm just didn't seem to strike any chords.  Ashton seems promising, and like a potential leader someday, but she'll need to calm down a bit first.  And Martin Singh–what the heck is he doing in the NDP?  You'd think, given that his pro-business stances, that he'd be more of a right-leaning Liberal.  Mulcair and Cullen seem like they'd be the best skilled to take on Harper, but Cullen seems slightly more personable.  Any post-debate polls on leadership candidates?

[MaxQue]

Saganash seems like he needs to learn a few relaxation exercises, frankly.

Well, he was having a bronchitis, that didn't helped him.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec is still volatile. NDP lost their lead for the first time since May, now tied with the Bloc at 26 apiece. Grits 20, Tories 17.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-in-free-fall-in-quebec-poll-finds/article2271529/

[RogueBeaver]

Wells: I'm unsure whether anyone but Mulcair can hold Quebec.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/12/14/quebecs-not-making-it-easier-for-the-ndp-to-pick-a-leader/

[DL]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

[RogueBeaver]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

If you're talking social policy, then both the Bloc and Grits are basically in alignment with them there. Mulcair, IMO, has the same problem Scott Brison has: he's never really trimmed his ideological sails and because the gulf between they and their respective base is too wide, they'll get anything they want except the leadership. Difference is that Mulcair hasn't realized it yet and almost certainly won't take it as well.

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

[Peter the Lefty]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

Would Cullen work for Quebec?  I hear he's also bilingual. 

[MaxQue]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

Would Cullen work for Quebec?  I hear he's also bilingual. 

Bilingual is a bit of a strecht.

[DL]

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

Are you aware that yesterday Mulcair was endorsed by Wayne Samuelson the longtime President of the Ontario Federation of Labour?

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

Are you aware that yesterday Mulcair was endorsed by Wayne Samuelson the longtime President of the Ontario Federation of Labour?

He's in a minority though. All the other labour organizations/leaders have endorsed Nash or Topp. Nor was he big on unions on the provincial scene despite being very much on the Pelquiste left.

[DL]

The point is that Mulcair does have some labour support. In any case now that the NDP has eliminated the 25% labour "carve-out" in the voting process, being the candidate of the labour movement is far lss meaningful than it used to be. BTW: Paul Dewar just got endorsed by 5 current and former chairs of the Manitoba Fed. of Labour. My sense is that labour is all over the map in this race.   

[Peter the Lefty]

The point is that Mulcair does have some labour support. In any case now that the NDP has eliminated the 25% labour "carve-out" in the voting process, being the candidate of the labour movement is far lss meaningful than it used to be. BTW: Paul Dewar just got endorsed by 5 current and former chairs of the Manitoba Fed. of Labour. My sense is that labour is all over the map in this race.   

Seems like Singh is the only one who is sure not to get any labour support.  But is Cullen seen as someone who could manage to hold Quebec, or is he seen as too western? 

[RogueBeaver]

Harris-Decima poll translated: can anyone say UK 1923? (CPC 138, NDP 75, LPC 65, BQ 29) Maybe Teddy or others want to run it through their models and see what they get?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/16/ndp-quebec-leadership-poll_n_1152224.html?ref=canada-politics#s507555&title=Brian_Topp_

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/12/ndp-support-collapses-in-quebec-without.html

[Holmes]

Days until the 2015 federal election: 1403. Stop analyzing useless polls, especially since the second and third parties both haven't even chosen their leaders.

[RodPresident]

I think that if Liberals get a stronger leader and Topp gets leadership, NDP will sink. Nash can be weak at French, but she can have a strong bond with Quebec in policies. That was the first factor for Orange Crush.

[Hatman 🍁]

Days until the 2015 federal election: 1403. Stop analyzing useless polls, especially since the second and third parties both haven't even chosen their leaders.

Not to mention linking to that godawful website

[DL]

I think that if Liberals get a stronger leader and Topp gets leadership, NDP will sink. Nash can be weak at French, but she can have a strong bond with Quebec in policies. That was the first factor for Orange Crush.

Why would Nash have any better a bond with Quebec policy-wise than Topp? They both sing very much the same policy hymn book, plus he is Quebecer and speaks a more colloquial French than she does. Her French is not "weak" its actually very strong. Nash has a graduate degree in French literature.

[MaxQue]

I think that if Liberals get a stronger leader and Topp gets leadership, NDP will sink. Nash can be weak at French, but she can have a strong bond with Quebec in policies. That was the first factor for Orange Crush.

Why would Nash have any better a bond with Quebec policy-wise than Topp? They both sing very much the same policy hymn book, plus he is Quebecer and speaks a more colloquial French than she does. Her French is not "weak" its actually very strong. Nash has a graduate degree in French literature.

Because I don't get a good vibe from Topp. I suppose I'm not alone.