2012 NDP leadership convention

[Sibboleth]

and sharing the name of a British sitcom character.

In fairness, it was a very good sitcom and that character was one of its (many) highlights.

[Senator MaxQue]

Talking of TV shows, Elizabeth Weir, the former New Brunswick NDP leader also shares her name with a sci-fi show character.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mulcair is an ass. Then again so was Cheney, and he did pretty well for himself.

[adma]

Julian, Dewar, Ducasse, Topp VS Mulcair

I doubt the NDP would put up w/a leadership race w/o at least one viable female contender.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Julian, Dewar, Ducasse, Topp VS Mulcair

I doubt the NDP would put up w/a leadership race w/o at least one viable female contender.

They will have to. These are the only viable contenders.

[Sibboleth]

Who said the woman had to be viable? There are surely Canadian equivalents of Diane Abbott out there.

[DL]

I don't see Ducasse as a "viable contender" at all. He ran in 2003 and got about 1% of the vote - no one has heard of him outside a few people in Gatineau and I doubt if he would run. He declined to run for parliament because his wife just had a baby.

There are several woman who would be serious contenders - Peggy Nash speaks very good French and is Finance critic. I also hear that Nikki Ashton from Manitoba may run - and she speaks FIVE languages fluently (including French).

If Mulcair actually is a bit of a "hard-ass" - big deal. It might not be pleasant for people working in the leader's office - but for the rest of us - so what? Having a bad temper hasn't stopped a lot of people from being very successful in politics. Look at Stephen Harper - he has about as much of a common touch as a tax inspector in the bowels of Revenue Canada and by all accounts he has a a horrible personality in private. He has a mouth like a toilet and reduces people to tears on a daily basis. Bob Rae is a total jerk in private and is one of the coldest, most aloof individuals you can imagine - he is still a good political "performer".

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I actually think Ducasse is the only person who can beat Mulcair.

Not because he can beat him on his own, but because all the anti-mulcair people need to get behind someone, and if they want widespread support, that someone has to be a Quebecois.

[RogueBeaver]

Nash apparently isn't running for family reasons, so she's out.  Ashton is a good performer but too left if they want to grow their base and not even 30 yet.

Mulcair's temperament: I'm guessing that a lot of these stories come from people who've been on the receiving end. In QP he's usually even-tempered. The person who actually acts in public like everyone says Mulcair does in private would be that thug Coderre. A more serious issue would be that it would require a complete alteration of the feelgood, fuzzy image of the NDP cultivated by Layton.

For Mulcair to woo the left, he has to retain Davies as deputy or replace her with Julian.

[DL]

Your talk of Ducasse is totally absurd. Who is he? a total nobody who has never been elected to anything and who no one has heard of. There are 59 NDP MPs in Quebec - it seems ridiculous to think that an unknown with ZERO political experience would be a better candidate than any of the 59 MPs from Quebec (some of whom are already proving to be very impressive).

I doubt if you will see much of a "right/left" split in this race. The leftwing of the NDP is so marginalized and so teeny-weeny that they won't amount to anything. I think it will all boil down to who members think is the most electable.

[RogueBeaver]

In which case it's still Mulcair. Comartin is also electable but too old, Julian is too left but will be the left-union candidate in Nash's absence. Dewar's unilingualism rules him out.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mark my words.

I am not saying he will run. I am saying that Mulcair wins, but the only person who could beat him is Ducasse.

I'm however leaving the door open in the event that Ducasse and at least 30 Quebec MP's endorse someone else.

[RogueBeaver]

The freshmen are going to vote against their mentor, who happens to be the best candidate by far in this field, for a man who at best is the NDP version of 2006's Martha Hall Findlay? Really? No one's heard of Ducasse except the hardest-core political junkies.

[DL]

In which case it's still Mulcair. Comartin is also electable but too old, Julian is too left but will be the left-union candidate in Nash's absence. Dewar's unilingualism rules him out.

I don't you know much about any of these people. Julian is not espcially "left" - I think the main knock against him is that he's a bit of a nerd. I don't know what makes you so sure Nash wouldn't run? and as for Dewar - he is not unilingual - he actually speaks French quite well.

Let's not for get that the caucus does not elect the leader it is a one member one vote process. Right now out of about 100,000 NDP members in Canada only about 5,000 are in Quebec - that will undoubtedly rise, but the fact remains that the bulk of NDP members are in Ontario, BC and Manitoba...

[Sibboleth]

Are figures published for party membership in Canada?

[Hatman]

Peter Julian is definitely on the left of the party. I used to work in his office, and I am very familiar with his career. But, he's not a Socialist caucus type, if that's what you mean.

Pierre Ducasse is an interesting case. His speech at the 2003 convention raised quite a few eyebrows.  Did anyone outside of Toronto know who Jack was in 2003? Not many. He could run and make an impact, for sure. Don't know though.

As for Peggy Nash, she is the best female candidate the NDP has. Her and Olivia Chow, perhaps. Anne McGrath is another good female choice. Howabout Francoise Boivin? Come to think of it, there's at least a few good women who could run. Someone told me today that Chow is a really good strategist (better than Layton, even), but would make a lousy leader.

Ashton would be an interesting choice. I know I said youth is important, but she may be too young.

[DL]

 Did anyone outside of Toronto know who Jack was in 2003? Not many.  too young.

More than you might think. When Layton decided to run for NDP leader in 2002 - he had run for mayor of Toronto, he had served a term a President of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (giving him a range of contacts across the country) he had already written a couple of books and he was a household name in Toronto (which whether you like it or not is the nerve centre of the country). Its true that Ducasse impressed people with a nice speech at the convention in 2003 - but after that he more or less sank without a trace and hasn't done much to maintain a profile.

Also, in the 2002/2003 NDP leadership contest, the party only had 13 MPs and was near death - so it was clear that the party could not limit itself to a sitting MP and needed to do something drastic. Now the NDP has 102 MPs and vast amount of talent.

[Hatman]

To the average voter, Jack wasn't a known commodity in 2003. While I was still in high school at the time, I certainly didn't know who he was, but I certainly knew who Bill Blaikie or Lorne Nystrom was. 

Anyways, Ducasse probably won't run, but he should run to be an MP at some point!

[DL]

Maybe in 2015 Turmel will retire (she will be 72 by then) and then Ducasse can run...the point is that Layton was known in NDP circles in 2003 as well as in Toronto. and that was critical to winning the leadership. I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

[Hatman]

I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

It's much more than just 1%. 10% would be a conservative estimate, but it could well be much higher. 1% is an extremely low amount.

[Senator MaxQue]

Maybe in 2015 Turmel will retire (she will be 72 by then) and then Ducasse can run...the point is that Layton was known in NDP circles in 2003 as well as in Toronto. and that was critical to winning the leadership. I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

And he had the crucial Broadband endorsement.

[Hatman]

Maybe in 2015 Turmel will retire (she will be 72 by then) and then Ducasse can run...the point is that Layton was known in NDP circles in 2003 as well as in Toronto. and that was critical to winning the leadership. I doubt if more than 1% of NDP rank and file would even know who Ducasse was.

And he had the crucial Broadband endorsement.

If Broadbent endorses Ducasse, then what? ;-)

Who will Broadbent endorse? Maybe Brian Topp...

[redcommander]

Is Chow interested in running? She seems like she would become a frontrunner if she ran.

[RogueBeaver]

Chow is a freshly minted widow, I highly doubt she's up for that sort of political brawl right now. Plus she's unilingual, an automatic disqualifier for anyone who aspires to lead a federal party.

[adma]

Plus she's unilingual, an automatic disqualifier for anyone who aspires to lead a federal party.

More properly, she isn't fluent in French.  But as far as "unilingual" goes: as you can tell by her accent, even English isn't her first (or at least "formative") language...