Who drops out next?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 09:18:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Who drops out next?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who will drop out before IA?
#1
Perry		  
#2
Romney		  
#3
Bachmann		  
#4
Paul		  
#5
Cain		  
#6
Gingrich		  
#7
Santorum		  
#8
Huntsman		  
#9
Johnson		  
#10
McCotter		  
#11
Roemer		  
#12
None of above		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 53

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Who drops out next?  (Read 2178 times)
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 24, 2011, 02:31:41 PM »
« edited: August 24, 2011, 02:33:26 PM by Likely Voter »
Usually a few people drop out of a race before IA. So far only TPaw has dropped out. So who is next? And who else will drop out before IA?
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2011, 02:49:53 PM »
McCotter, Gingrich, and Johnson.
Logged
MJM58
Rookie
**
Posts: 52
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2011, 03:43:32 PM »

Not Roemer?
Logged
President von Cat
captain copernicus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 619


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2011, 03:51:15 PM »
Santorum. With Perry now in the race, he has no base left.
Logged
Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
GM3PRP
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,080
Greece
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2011, 03:53:34 PM »
Of the bigger names, Santorum
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,863
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2011, 04:12:01 PM »
Gingrich, McCotter, Johnson, and Roemer

Santorum and Cain maybe, but I see it as unlikely.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2011, 04:16:22 PM »
Roemer has a tiny base, which Johnson, Gingrich, and McCotter dont even have. Roemer wont go far past Iowa. But he is in it for now.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2011, 04:16:46 PM »
Santorum gets a higher dropout likelyhood than Huntsman ?

Yes, he should drop out IMO, but I'm 90% sure he will at least wait until after Iowa.

I even think he could finish 4th there, behind Perry, Bachmann and Romney - with Paul 5th.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2011, 04:25:16 PM »
Huntsman, to challenge Hatch in Utah.
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,043
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2011, 04:56:21 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on August 24, 2011, 04:25:16 PM
Huntsman, to challenge Hatch in Utah.

By running to the left?

Anyway, Bachmann might drop out if she keeps droping in the polls.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2011, 11:11:45 PM »
Santorum is likely in until at least through IA, possibly SC.

I says its a race between Gingrich and Huntsman.
Logged
stegosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 628
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: 1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2011, 12:38:24 AM »
I don't see Santorum or Cain dropping out until after the results of the South Carolina primary are known. Huntsman will likely drop out after the NH primary, unless he does well in which case he may stick it out until Super Tuesday; this isn't likely to happen though.

I'm guessing that Johnson is the next to go, he doesn't really have an angle with Ron Paul in the race (and polling well*). McCotter is weird enough to hold out for awhile (think Gravel 2008).

*by Paul standards.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2011, 01:00:34 AM »
« Edited: August 25, 2011, 01:04:30 AM by Politico »
Not sure, but Santorum, Gingrich and Huntsman seem to be spinning their wheels (Same goes for the three at the bottom of the poll). Hard to see Cain dropping out before Iowa is over, but who knows?

I would only bet on Romney, Perry, and Paul almost surely being around after New Hampshire. Bachmann is finished if she loses Iowa, but I think she MAY win there. The race will probably become Romney Vs. Perry at some point, perhaps even after Iowa if Perry or Romney finishes off Bachmann there.

The GOP will either embrace pragmatism in Romney or lose with Perry.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2011, 05:02:44 AM »
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Sanchez on August 24, 2011, 04:16:22 PM
Roemer has a tiny base, which Johnson, Gingrich, and McCotter dont even have. Roemer wont go far past Iowa. But he is in it for now.
What is that base?
Of course fringe candidates have less reason to drop out early than coulda-been-a-contender-if-their-support-wasn't-going-to-a-stronger-or-luckier-candidate types like Gingrich and McCotter.
Logged
WillK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,276


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2011, 06:07:02 AM »
Quote from: Politico on August 25, 2011, 01:00:34 AM

The GOP will either embrace pragmatism in Romney or lose with Perry.

If these are the only two choices, the GOP will lose either way.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2011, 12:05:01 PM »
With Johnson, McCotter and Roemer being shut out of the debates, it is hard to see how they stay in.

As for Gingrich, I think he will drop out right before IA to avoid embarrassment as his whole campaign was a publicity stunt to sell books and DVDs
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2011, 05:37:06 PM »
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Sanchez on August 24, 2011, 04:16:22 PM
Roemer has a tiny base, which Johnson, Gingrich, and McCotter dont even have. Roemer wont go far past Iowa. But he is in it for now.

Buddy Roemer and his family does not count as a base.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2011, 06:00:53 PM »
Quote from: King on August 26, 2011, 05:37:06 PM
Quote from: Imperial Speaker Sanchez on August 24, 2011, 04:16:22 PM
Roemer has a tiny base, which Johnson, Gingrich, and McCotter dont even have. Roemer wont go far past Iowa. But he is in it for now.

Buddy Roemer and his family does not count as a base.

At least McCotter holds an elected office now.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,170
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2011, 06:51:21 PM »
Johnson will probably be the next to drop out: he's going nowhere in the polls and seems to be having trouble getting invited to debates. Gingrich will probably wait until his disappointing seventh place finish in Iowa to drop out. Cain and Santorum will at least stay in it until South Carolina. Roemer may never officially drop out, but it doesn't matter because he's a joke candidate.
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2011, 08:24:17 PM »
It really is Romney-Perry-Bachmann-Paul.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2011, 03:38:29 AM »
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on August 26, 2011, 06:51:21 PM
Johnson will probably be the next to drop out: he's going nowhere in the polls and seems to be having trouble getting invited to debates.
Johnson's problem is that his potential base prefers to be the bearable half of Paul's base.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,170
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2011, 10:26:45 AM »
Quote from: never met a fence I didn't want to burrow under on August 27, 2011, 03:38:29 AM
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on August 26, 2011, 06:51:21 PM
Johnson will probably be the next to drop out: he's going nowhere in the polls and seems to be having trouble getting invited to debates.
Johnson's problem is that his potential base prefers to be the bearable half of Paul's base.
Let's get real here: Johnson's real problem is that nobody outside of Atlas Forum knows who he is.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2011, 10:41:48 AM »
This changed a bit, but Johnson will be at the 22nd debate...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_debates,_2012#Upcoming_debates_and_attendance
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2011, 11:49:18 AM »
And McCotter as well? Why not McMillan? He would be fun.
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2011, 04:22:35 PM »
Barring some event of note, NOTA.

After IA, a bunch will drop out.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 15 queries.