MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney far ahead, McCotter at the end of the list

[Tender Branson]

32% Romney
17% Perry
12% Bachmann
  5% Newt Gingrich
  5% Ron Paul
  5% Sarah Palin
  3% Herman Cain
  2% Rick Santorum
  1% John Huntsman
  1% Thaddeus McCotter
  1% Tim Pawlenty
16% Undecided

http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/politics/Poll-shows-Romney-leads-Perry-in-Mich

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Well at least one Michiganian in the field is leading here, even if he did serve in Massachusetts.

[Marston]

I always wonder what would have transpired if Romney would have ran for Governor in Michigan, instead. I know he's stated in the past that he regretted choosing running in Massachusetts and would have picked Michigan if he had the chance. I still think Granholm would have defeated him if he ran here in 2002 but it would have been very close. Engler-fatigue would have done him in, I think.

[NVGonzalez]

Romney better hope this is a winner take all primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney better hope this is a winner take all primary.

It's not.  Most of the delegates are WTA by congressional district (with each CD getting the same number of delegates), with some additional delegates allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote total.

[Likely Voter]

Isn't MI again risking having their delegates cut in half by going early?

What would happen if that cut became the margin between winning the nomination?

[Marston]

Isn't MI again risking having their delegates cut in half by going early?

What would happen if that cut became the margin between winning the nomination?

1) Yeah. State law says that the primary must fall in between February 28th and March 6th. The only date that wouldn't be breaking RNC rules is March 6th, I believe. It's currently tentatively scheduled for February 28th but there is a bill that's just been introduced into the State Legislature that would give a Committee the power of picking a date for the primary between Feb. 28th and March 6th. The Committee Members would be appointed by Governor Snyder, the Senate Majority Leader and the Speaker of the House (all Republicans).

2) All hell breaks loose. 

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't MI again risking having their delegates cut in half by going early?

What would happen if that cut became the margin between winning the nomination?

Yes, but it's not just Michigan.  Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, probably Georgia, and maybe North Dakota, Wyoming, and a couple of others will break the rules and go early as well, which would mean a 50% delegate penalty.  So yes, in a very close race, it could easily happen that the delegate penalty exceeds the margin of victory.  Of course, most primary contests aren't as close as Clinton v. Obama 2008.

1) Yeah. State law says that the primary must fall in between February 28th and March 6th. The only date that wouldn't be breaking RNC rules is March 6th, I believe. It's currently tentatively scheduled for February 28th but there is a bill that's just been introduced into the State Legislature that would give a Committee the power of picking a date for the primary between Feb. 28th and March 6th. The Committee Members would be appointed by Governor Snyder, the Senate Majority Leader and the Speaker of the House (all Republicans).

Not exactly true.  State law says that the primary in 2012 will be Feb. 28, full stop.  *If* the legislature passes this bill, then they'd set up this committee which could change it to any date between Feb. 28 and March 6.  But they have to actually pass the bill into law before that happens.  If it isn't passed, then the primary just remains on Feb. 28.