When will Virginia be closer than Florida?

[phk]

the Perot Factor + Fairfax

[Alcon]

Clinton could have carried a Virginia that's 54% GOP? Er, right.

If Clinton was running now. Re-read the post.

[A18]

There's no indication that Clinton could carry VA is he was running now.

[Alcon]

There's no indication that Clinton could carry VA is he was running now.

Clinton lost South Dakota by three. He could carry Virginia - Kerry lost it by only 8.

[phk]

There's no indication that Clinton could carry VA is he was running now.

Okay..

Take the Virginia that exists in 2004, take a time machine, replace it with the Virginia that exists in 1996.

Clinton is up for re-election and he would win it.

[A18]

There's no indication that he would.

[phk]

Its more Democratic in 2004, than it was in 1996.

He had a 9 point margin victory in 1996.

Today's VA would be Clinton-territory in 1996.

[A18]

No, Fairfax is more Democratic. VA is 7 points more Republican.

[Cashcow]

Third parties.

In 1996, Clinton won the election by 8.5%, and lost Virginia by 2%. It was -10.5% more Democratic than the national average.

In 2004, Kerry lost the election by 2.5%, and lost Virginia by 8%. It was -5.5% more Democratic than the national average.

That's a swing to the Democrats. Clinton probably would have won.

[A18]

The national average is completely irrelevant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow this is now an amusing thread.

[Smash255]

Wow this is now an amusing thread.

Well, Florida was still closer than Virginia.   Just not in the way originally thought....

[Derek]

If you think about it VA went 53-46 for Obama as did the U.S. FL went 51-48 for Obama so technically VA was right on pace whereas FL was 4 points to the right. However, I expect VA to go back to being a reddish purple state again and think FL will remain in the same category.

[Smash255]

If you think about it VA went 53-46 for Obama as did the U.S. FL went 51-48 for Obama so technically VA was right on pace whereas FL was 4 points to the right. However, I expect VA to go back to being a reddish purple state again and think FL will remain in the same category.

I doubt that.  Aside from the horrid Deeds campaign, I think its going to be pretty unlikely that VA is going to back to lean Republican anytime soon,   The GOP has totally lost Northern Virginia, and unless the GOP changes course (which looks more and more unlikely) they don't have a chance in hell of really getting any of it back.