Election Night 2012. Romney Vs...... Perry?

[Thomas D]

No. Not Perry the Platypus.

I'm off of work next week so I thought it would be a good time to write an Election Night TL. In this Alternative world there are only 2 candidates for the GOP nomination and every state holds it's primary election on the same day. In this case Tuesday April 3. So sit back and enjoy seeing how thing unfold through the eyes of our friends on MSNBC.

(However there is a chance I'll get hit by Irene so if I lose power for a week I apologize in advance for the lack of updates.)

[Thomas D]

David Gregory: Good evening and welcome to MSNBC's coverage of Republican Primary Election Night. I'm David Gregory and I will be with you throughout the night and likely into the  next morning. Joining me will be from MSNBC Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow and from The Washington Post Gene Robinson. Panel, we'll be hearing from you all night long but it is now 7 P.M. in the east and we have our first round of poll closings. And just a quick reminder: Tonight's election will be just like a General Presidential Election where the winner of a state wins a set number of electoral votes and the magic number to win is 270.

First off for Governor Romney we call can the state of Vermont and for Governor Perry we can call the states of Kentucky and South Carolina. And at this point NBC News is saying that the states of Georgia, Indiana and Virginia are too close to call. And as you get a first look at our map I should point out that Perry is red, Romney is blue, States that are too close to call are green and gray states are where the polls are still open.



Perry-17
Romney-3

And now I'll turn to the panel. What one state are you most looking at tonight?

RM: Wisconsin.

GR: Arizona.

CM: Ohio. Ohio. Ohio.

[Thomas D]

DG: And at 7:30 eastern time we have 3 more states closing their polls. North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia and of those 3 we only have one state to call and that is West Virginia for Governor Rick Perry.

RM: I'm going to guess that Mitt Romney is not watching MSNBC right now, but on the off chance he is I just want to tell the Governor that It's a little after 7:30, polls have closed in a handful of states and all you have to show for it is Vermont's 3 Electoral votes. Whatever happens tonight at least you now know what it feels like to be the Democratic nominee for President.

CM: Whoa. Rachel taking a shot at the Democrats.

DG: I'm sorry to interupt but we have an important call to make. NBC news projects that Rick Perry will carry Georgia and it's 16 Electoral votes. So Perry doing well in the South as was expected going into tonight.

GR: But I want to point out that Rick Perry HAD to get a big early lead. I know the polls are still open for a few more hours out west and that polling can be wrong but Mitt Romney has, from the start of this race, been very strong in California. So if Romney has California in the bank Perry will need a big lead to withstand the 11:00 hour.




Perry-38
Romney-3

[CathKhan]

Cool. When I first read the title I though it was taking place in an alternate universe where Perry stays a Democrat and by 2012 is the Democratic nominee.

[Thomas D]

DG: It is now 8:00 in the east and we have a whole lot of poll closings at this hour. First for Governor Romney we can call Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Washington D.C.  For Governor Perry we can call Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Florida, Maryland and Missouri are too close to call. We also can call Indiana for Perry. Panel thought so far?

RM: I'm surprised we were able to call Pennsylvania right at 8. I thought the end of the night that it would go for Romney but I thought it would take a while to call it. The fact that we called it right away, I think, bodes very well for governor Romney.

CM: I'd say the same about Illinois.

GR: As I pointed out last hour Perry needed a big lead and it already gone. It's still very early but if I'm Romney I'm feeling good right now.







Romney-89
Perry-82

[JulioMadrid]

Romney is the democrat candidate hahaha.. he's only carrying Kerry states xD

[Thomas D]

Romney is the democrat candidate hahaha.. he's only carrying Kerry states xD

Not to kill Hamlet in the first act but, unlike Kerry Romney will win Utah.

[Jayhawker]

Trying not to sound like a Romney hack, but...

I think Romney would easily be taking the cake in this election. Though Democratic turnout would be high, I think Perry would be unliked by Democrats enough that they'd still come out in pretty high forces for Romney. Independents would break heavily towards Romney, who is by far the more moderate of the two, and Romney would still be picking up a good chunk of Republican voters.

Just saying... Interesting concept, though.

[Thomas D]

Trying not to sound like a Romney hack, but...

I think Romney would easily be taking the cake in this election. Though Democratic turnout would be high, I think Perry would be unliked by Democrats enough that they'd still come out in pretty high forces for Romney. Independents would break heavily towards Romney, who is by far the more moderate of the two, and Romney would still be picking up a good chunk of Republican voters.

Just saying... Interesting concept, though.

But it's still a Republican Primary. This isn't the general. In most states only Republcans can vote.

[JulioMadrid]

Romney is the democrat candidate hahaha.. he's only carrying Kerry states xD

Not to kill Hamlet in the first act but, unlike Kerry Romney will win Utah.

But you never know... if the GOP nominee were Perry and not Bush... You know, they have nothing in common. Maybe Perry could have carried VT while loosing UT.

[Thomas D]

DG: And just before 9:00 we can make somewhat of a Surprising call and that is that NBC news can now project that Governor Perry will win the State of Maryland. Maryland was a state that many expected to go for Romney but that turns out not to be the case. Gene, you're from the region are you surprised by this?

GR: I'm surprised, but I'm not shocked. The Republican Party in Maryland can be very Conservative. You know, there are a lot of Republican voters who frankly don't live within 5 miles of I-95 and I think Rick Perry speaks to those voters.

CM: But lets remember, polls are about to close in Michigan and New York where Governor Romney had been running very strong. So while losing Maryland hurts, Romney is still in good shape.

[JulioMadrid]

Yes, Maryland and southern-Delaware republicans are really conservative. like GOPers in Tennessee or Texas.

[Thomas D]

DG: It is now 9:00 in the east and before we get to the States the just closed we have 2 big calls to make for Governor Perry. Perry has carried the states of Florida and North Carolina. As for states that just closed we can call Colorado, Michigan, New York and Rhode Island for Romney. And for Perry we can call Kansas, Louisana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming.

CM: Losing Florida is a big blow to the Romney camp. I think he'd have to run the table from here on out to win this thing.

RM: But Romney is well liked in the west. I admit things look bad for him right now, but if I'm with the Perry camp I'm not celebrating yet.




Perry-205
Romney-157

[JulioMadrid]

Good, but I think Romney would carry WY and NE (Heinemann's supporting him)

[Thomas D]

Good, but I think Romney would carry WY and NE (Heinemann's supporting him)

He would.... IF HE WEREN"T A DIRTY LIBERAL FLIP FLOPPER!!   

[Thomas D]

DG: It is now just before 9:30 and NBC News can call the state of Virginia for Governor Rick Perry. Virginia was a state where both campaigns spent a lot of time and money, and tonight it goes for Perry. Gene, your thoughts?

GR: This is a very big win for the Perry camp and at this point I thing it's fair to say Romney is going to have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to win this thing. I'm not saying it can't be done, but over the past hour things have gotten progressively worse for the Romney campaign.

RM: I still think Romney has a good shot here. If you look at where polls are still open Romney is very strong in a lot of those states. Gene, as you said earlier, let's see where things are at 11:01.

[Thomas D]

DG: It's now 10:00 in the east and we have a number of states closing their polls at this hour. First for Governor Perry we can call The state of Iowa. And for Governor Romney we can call Nevada, Utah and also now the state of New Mexico, which was too close to call.

CM: I know there are a lot of states still out there but with each passing moment I find it more and more difficult to see how Mitt Romney gets to 270.

RM: I disagree. I think he needs to sweep the west coast. And if he does that he can still win this thing.




Perry-224
Romney-174

[Thomas D]

DG: It's just about 10:15 and we have what could be called off setting calls to make. For Mitt Romney we can call Wisconsin and for Rick Perry we can call Missouri. Both states have 10 electoral votes so Perry's margin doesn't change.

GR: Yes they off set each other but I think it's fair to say Romney needed Wisconsin a lot more.

RM: I said at the start of the night to watch Wisconsin. And I think it was a swing state in this election and I'm sure the Perry folks are sorry to have lost it. Missouri going For Rick Perry doesn't shock me that much.

[Thomas D]

DG: It's now 11:00, all but one state has closed it's polls and here's what we can call at this hour: Governor Romney has won the states of California, Hawaii and Washington. Governor Perry has won the state of North Dakota. And right now we're saying Oregon and Idaho are too close to call.

GR: So it's come to this. Ohio and a handful of western states.

RM: Romney's only 15 votes short at this point. Perry's road to 270 is a lot harder. Perry has to have Ohio and at last check Romney was leading by about 2,000 votes. But the rural vote often comes in late so that could help Perry.



Romney-255
Perry-237

[Thomas D]

DG: And at 25 minutes past 11 we are ready to call the state of Arizona for Governor Mitt Romney. So now Romney is at 266 Electoral votes, just 4 short of victory.

RM: Well now it's Rick Perry who has to run the table. And if you're Rick Perry I really don't think you wanted to get to a point tonight where you were so dependent on Oregon.

GR: Exactly. Rachel said it. Perry has to win everything now. But the Romney lead in Ohio is down to 400 votes. So I'm sure the Perry people are still holding out hope. But right now it doesn't look very good for them.

[JulioMadrid]

Romney may loose OR, but he'll carry northern Mormonland (ID)

[Jayhawker]

Yeah, I can't see Romney losing Idaho, tbh. Too strong of a Mormon base in the southern part of the state.

[Thomas D]

DG: And at 12:27 in the morning NBC News can now Project that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Nominee for President for 2012. Mitt Romney has carried to state of Oregon which puts him over the magic number of 270.

CM: I think in their hearts most Republican voters liked Perry more. But I think a lot of them thought Romney had the better chance at beating President Obama and that's why Romney won tonight.

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FINAL MAP:




Romney 277
Perry 261

[cavalcade]

Technically, I'm pretty sure that if you went by Republican convention delegates rather than electoral votes Perry would win...of course in a national primary some of the delegates would be distributed proportionally and that would be very complicated.

But yeah, that's pretty much the map I'd expect, maybe aside from more Perry strength in the Southwest.