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| | |-+  Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011
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Author Topic: Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011  (Read 55848 times)
ingemann
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« Reply #100 on: September 02, 2011, 03:18:59 pm »
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K used to Communist and D was originally Venstre

The use of letters to symbolise the parties started in Copenhagen municipality in the late 19th century, with the Social Democrats taking "A", Venstre "B" and Conservative "C", but with the split of Venstre into RV (radical left) and Venstre (moderate left), RV was stronger* in Copenhagen so they kept the letter "B". Venstre later adopted "V" when the letter system spread from Copenhagen.

*Venstre was more or less non-existent in Copenhagen until after the war, only being kept alive by rural migrants (in fact native-bore Copenhagen Venstre-voters are more or less a post-1990 phenomen and still relative rare)
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« Reply #101 on: September 03, 2011, 06:32:14 am »
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It is really interesting that you should mention that Ingemann, because that was the situation in Norway as well (I lived there from 1995-1999). In Oslo (Norways capital city), Venstre (the sister party of the Danish Venstre) was practically destroyed in the early parts of the 20th century. They have only reappeared the last few years.
If I remember correctly I think they were replaced by Hoyre, which is the main center-right party, and the Norwegian equivalent of the Danish Conservative party.

The vote on the left was splitt between the more dominant Arbeiderpartiet and smaler NKP (the communist party).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #102 on: September 03, 2011, 11:29:36 am »
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To see it in its full glory (?), use the magic of right click. Some minor errors are always possible.
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« Reply #103 on: September 03, 2011, 11:57:37 am »
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What's with KD's stronghold area?
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« Reply #104 on: September 03, 2011, 12:07:30 pm »
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What's with KD's stronghold area?

The left are weak in the area, it's the stronghold of Inner Mission (Christian Fundamentalists). As such the strength of KD is to be expected. Whats more surprising are the strength of DPP in west Zealand (but it's because it's Pia Kjærsgaard's election district) and their weakness in North Jutland (which were a stronghold for the Progress Party)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #105 on: September 03, 2011, 01:10:08 pm »
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What Y was?
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #106 on: September 11, 2011, 05:06:59 pm »
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Swedish media is reporting today that the centre-right is gaining back ground according to a poll by Voxmeter, and that they're know only slightly behind the centre-left.

I know nothing about the pollster, so they might just be bad, or it's an outliner. Wouldn't surprise me too much if it were true though. Goverments tend to gain a bit when the election is coming closer. Could end up being a Danish version of Sweden 2006 when the opposition had a decisive lead for a long time before the election, but where the election got really close in the end and the opposition only ending up defeating the goverment by a very slim margin.

 
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« Reply #107 on: September 11, 2011, 06:05:10 pm »
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Swedish media is reporting today that the centre-right is gaining back ground according to a poll by Voxmeter, and that they're know only slightly behind the centre-left.

I know nothing about the pollster, so they might just be bad, or it's an outliner. Wouldn't surprise me too much if it were true though. Goverments tend to gain a bit when the election is coming closer. Could end up being a Danish version of Sweden 2006 when the opposition had a decisive lead for a long time before the election, but where the election got really close in the end and the opposition only ending up defeating the goverment by a very slim margin.

  

There's a Megafon poll out today showing the left's lead widening. Looking at some of the other polls as well, Voxmeter appear to be showing noticably less support for the Socialists and the Greens than other pollsters.
http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/

If Helle Thorning Schmidt isn't the next PM of Denmark, the European Left are beyond screwed.
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« Reply #108 on: September 11, 2011, 06:19:38 pm »
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There's a Megafon poll out today showing the left's lead widening. Looking at some of the other polls as well, Voxmeter appear to be showing noticably less support for the Socialists and the Greens than other pollsters.
http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/

If Helle Thorning Schmidt isn't the next PM of Denmark, the European Left are beyond screwed.

Probably an outliner. And my money is of course still on Thoring Schmit having majority support (in one form or another) but I think it might end up closer than it looks.

Going to spend the night with a Danish guy, should be an exciting evening.

EDIT: Looking at Al's amazing maps. That little Green spot north of Copenhagen is Pia Kjaersgaard's home town, fun little trivia.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2011, 06:26:02 pm by Swedish Cheese »Logged

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« Reply #109 on: September 12, 2011, 11:39:34 am »
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The left has gone from a 95-80 lead to a 90-85 lead, while it's not impossible it's going to be closer than that, I lean that we will ast least get 90-85 split, if not we will see the right win, simply because if it become closer the left will panic. The last week are going to be interesting, if nothing else gbecause of the leak* of Helle Thorning-Schmidts tax case. While the great irony is that it shows she's innocent, the media has spun it like she's guilty. Much depend on how the voters react to this.

*The leak seem like it likely come from the government itself, which means that there are a chance that even if they win, they may end up collapsing later, if the police find out who did it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #110 on: September 12, 2011, 12:28:08 pm »
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It looks like the Left-Coalition still has about 51-53% support in todays 4 tracking polls.

The only real trend I have noticed recently is that the Venstre could overtake the Social Democrats.

Also, the Enhedslisten seem to gain ground rapidely, from 2% to 7% now.
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Solitude Without a Window
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« Reply #111 on: September 12, 2011, 12:41:30 pm »
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Is this graph accurate ?



I find it quite surprising to see there are so few polls recently.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #112 on: September 12, 2011, 03:08:41 pm »
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There have been more than that, yeah. A link was posted earlier in the thread and here bist: http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/
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Antonio V
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« Reply #113 on: September 12, 2011, 03:14:21 pm »
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I don't get the left's apparent downfall... Did something particular happen in these last weeks ?
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #114 on: September 12, 2011, 03:18:34 pm »
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I don't get the left's apparent downfall... Did something particular happen in these last weeks ?

It's a pretty small shift and it's not so strange for governments to mount a bit of a comeback during an election, especially if they've been polling terribly for a while.
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« Reply #115 on: September 12, 2011, 03:26:24 pm »
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I don't get the left's apparent downfall... Did something particular happen in these last weeks ?

Elections get closer in the spurt, that's just the way of things. Polls tightened in Sweden both in 2006 and 2010 the week before the elections. 
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He's not from Sweden, he's from Scania.
 

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Antonio V
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« Reply #116 on: September 12, 2011, 03:36:50 pm »
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Still, having Venstre > SD and DF > SF is a pretty significant change, no ? Doesn't that mean the left's overall leadis razor-thin ?
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #117 on: September 12, 2011, 04:34:15 pm »
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Still, having Venstre > SD and DF > SF is a pretty significant change, no ? Doesn't that mean the left's overall leadis razor-thin ?

Todays voxmeter is saying it's only 1,5% lead for the left. There are two other polls sayig the left's lead is 4,8% and 4,9% respectivly.
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He's not from Sweden, he's from Scania.
 

Jens
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« Reply #118 on: September 13, 2011, 03:30:53 pm »
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We just had the last party leaders debate on DR.
The PM seemed like a man under pressure and Pia Kærsgaard kept on trying to attack Villy Søvndal without succes. I don't really think that the debate changed much and most certainly easn't a game changer for Lars Løkke.

To summarise a bit on the whole polling debate: The polling firms are spitting out polls every day and a few of them show a close race. The closest was 88 to Red Block and 87 to Blue Block, but remember that the most likely outcome of the North Atlantic mandates is 2 red from Greenland and 1 red and 1 blue from Faroe Islands. Blue Block thus needs 89 Danish mandates to win, and no poll has been even close to that.

Internally in the blocks, there has been some changes.
Enhedslisten is on its way to its best result ever, around 5-7 %. Not since the 70'ties has the extreme left has such a succes. A lot of it is because of Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, the young and charimatic spokesperson for the List. Not the other hand has the List been under heavy fire the last few days because of the quite radical opinions of its members, who want to nationalise Maersk and Lego and support FARC and PFLP. Enhedslisten will get an excellent result but perhaps "only" around 5 %.
Radikale Venstre has also gained and is looking at a result around 7-9 %. Again a charimatic leader, Margrethe Vestager, holds some of the explanation but also some clear stances on immigration, economy, taxes and early retirement has attracted the Café Latte segment, who adored SF and Villy Søvndal in 2007

The losers are SF and S who at best is going to get the same result as in 2007. S perhaps a bit over, SF probably a bit under. Both parties are suffering from their somewhat pragmatic (and boring) policies and a Villy Søvndal and SF who have had a hard time being the responsible government party... (me no like Wink )

Blue Block hasn't showed the same major changes. Conservatives is loosing bad and is going to lose half their seats. Venstre is losing a little. DF is unpredictable a usual and Liberal Alliance is probably going to get a decent result if their can control some of their more unconventional candidates, like Joachim B. Olsen, former Olympic bronze medalist in short putting, who started talking about allowing polygamy (and he isn't even a Mormon)...

Sorry about not posting much - real life campaining is keeping me quite bussy Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #119 on: September 13, 2011, 03:32:57 pm »
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Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?
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« Reply #120 on: September 13, 2011, 03:54:22 pm »
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Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?

Liberal Alliance, and Radikale Venstre possibly
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Jens
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« Reply #121 on: September 13, 2011, 04:18:41 pm »
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Yeah, I noticed the collapsed Conservative vote. Where have they gone? To Venstre?

Liberal Alliance, and Radikale Venstre possibly
Primarily to LA, but also to Venstre, who have lost votes to SD (working class votes), who have lost votes to SF (more left wing social democrats) who have lost votes to Radikale (Cafë Latte) and Enhedslisten (Latte and left wing socialists)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #122 on: September 14, 2011, 04:18:01 am »
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Here's the average of the final 4 tracking polls (Voxmeter, Ramboll, Megafon, Gallup) today:

24.3% (2007: 25.5%) A => Socialdemokratiet/Social Democrats
10.6% (2007: 13.0%) F => Socialistisk Folkeparti/Socialist People's Party
10.0% (2007:   5.1%) B => Radikale Venstre/Social Liberal Party
  6.8% (2007:   2.2%) Ø => Enhedslisten/Red-Green Alliance

51.7% (2007: 45.8%) => Left/Opposition Alliance

23.7% (2007: 26.3%) V = Venstre/Liberal Party
12.3% (2007: 13.8%) O = Dansk Folkeparti/Danish People's Party
  5.8% (2007: 10.4%) C = Konservative Folkeparti/Conservative People's Party
  5.6% (2007:   2.8%) I = Liberal Alliance

47.4% (2007: 53.3%) => Right/Government Alliance

0.9% (2007: 0.9%) K = Kristendemokraterne/Christian Democrats
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #123 on: September 14, 2011, 04:24:58 am »
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BTW, why is the Right-coalition not referred to as "VOCI", but as "VCOI" - even though the "O" was/is bigger than the "C" ?

Wink
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« Reply #124 on: September 14, 2011, 04:56:52 am »
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BTW, why is the Right-coalition not referred to as "VOCI", but as "VCOI" - even though the "O" was/is bigger than the "C" ?

Wink

Presumably because V and C were the original coalition with O only being a supporting party?
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