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Author Topic: Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011  (Read 37793 times)
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« Reply #325 on: August 05, 2012, 06:49:56 pm »
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Poor Gucci Helle, I still love you.

It seems pretty self-explanatory to me. The left's discontent across the EU with mainstream social democratic parties who are in power has been universal.
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« Reply #326 on: August 06, 2012, 04:25:40 pm »
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Helle's poor polling numbers are nothing new. She turned out to be a failure even faster than I expected her to. Intresting to hear she's managed to loose the Red-Green Alliance though. I had read she was having problems making her coalition-partners get along, but I thought a potential government collapse was more unlikly. The prospect of new elections in Denmark already this year are exciting though.

Still doubt the alliance will actually vote down the government in the end. New elections mean the return of a burgious government, and that's not something the alliance wants.   
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« Reply #327 on: August 06, 2012, 10:24:37 pm »
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Still doubt the alliance will actually vote down the government in the end. New elections mean the return of a burgious government, and that's not something the alliance wants.   
Doesn't the Alliance also view the current government as bourgeois?
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« Reply #328 on: August 07, 2012, 03:54:18 pm »
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Still doubt the alliance will actually vote down the government in the end. New elections mean the return of a burgious government, and that's not something the alliance wants.   
Doesn't the Alliance also view the current government as bourgeois?

To a certain extent I'm sure they do. But I'm sure Ö still see them as the less evil alternative.
A lot of left-winger's will call out Obama for being a worthless corporate sell-out, but they still wouldn't want to switch him for Romney.

I believe Helle is safe for now, but things are going to get a lot harder for her.

We'll have to see for how long the Social Democrats will be able to keep Radikale and Enhedslisten together.

I guess I got my question from election night answered btw.

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« Reply #329 on: August 07, 2012, 04:10:34 pm »
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But left-wingers should not be too sad though. There are some breaking Danish political news we can all enjoy.

Pia Kjærsgaard is stepping down as leader of the Danish People's Party after 17 years.

Couldn't find any source in English yet, but here's a Swedish article from SvT.

EDIT: And here's a more extensive Danish article from Politiken.

(And according to the poll next to that article VBIC would get 89 seats if an election was held today, mening there would be a theoretical possibility of a centre-right government without support from the Danish People's Party) 
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« Reply #330 on: August 07, 2012, 04:22:00 pm »
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Thank God for small favours. Cheesy
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« Reply #331 on: August 10, 2012, 03:55:33 pm »
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The last opinion poll from Megafon is both bad and good news, it show that the government would fall if there was a election, but at the same time all three parties of the government has increased their mandates, through Unity List has lost a few percent over the summer. This will remove much of the infighting in the government, while Unity List which have attacted the government over the summer may tone down the rethoric.

As for Pia Kjærsgaard, this is a big thing as much as I dislike her, she has been  a great politician and party leader, she has transformed a small splinter group from a deeply irrelevant and moribund party (the progess party) into a major force in Danish politic, she has dominated Danish politic from 1997-2007 and even after that she was a force to fear. While she was not the European right wing populist who delivered the best result, she still stand head and shoulders above her fellows around Europe, she has created a party with incredible staying power with a clear and stable succession. While her success had a lot to do with luck as she created a xenophobic party just before the tabloid Extra Bladet started a anti-immigrant campaign (ironic after the former Conservative leader Hans Engell became Editor-in-Chief in 2000, the newpaper began a move to the left and dropped its anti-immigrant focus). Of course this was only partly accidental, as the Nyrup government Three Monkey (don't look, hear or ask) policy, had created a fertile ground for both the DPP and the campaign.
But what really made her a giant among xenophobes was her pragmatism, she made a deal with Anders Fogh Rasmussen, where she made him PM against him pushing the Danish immigration policy to the hard right, while keeping economic keeping the status quo of the last Nyrup years.  Of course if Fogh had not been a principleless spineless sell-out, who cared more about his own career than his country this would never have been possible. In fact her greatest luck was that Uffe Ellemand didn't win the election in 1997 as it would have kept DPP from ever getting the influence it got (Uffe and Pia hate each other).
But at the same time she has also been willing to moderate herself, many say that the tone in Danish immigration policy has become uglier over the last ten years, and to some degree other parties has adopted a harder tone, but people also forget how ugly the tone was between 1997-2001 and the terrible thing DDP said, no leading politicians of DPP say thing so brutal anymore, and on the other side the left don't spit after DPP anymore, so in many ways the tone in the immigration debate, while still hard, has become civilised, it has just become another issue to discuss and not the difference between good and evil politicians.

As the new leader of DPP Kristian Thulesen Dahl (Tulle), he has been the crown prince and one of the members of the ruling triad in DPP (the last being Peter Skaarup). But if Pia is a firebreather Tulle is more shy, calm and diplomatic, he is a great negotiater and he understand economics. Economic he is rather moderate, but on the immigration issue and want some degree of social justice (for poor Danes of course) , Pia and he agrees, but at the same time he wish to continue the evolution of DPP into a real party rather than just a anti-immigration movement, this may mean that he may make deals with government and make deals which are primary economic. In the long term he hope to make DPP into the (European-style) conservative party.
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« Reply #332 on: August 13, 2012, 05:34:01 pm »
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Missed this one.

The Red-Greens are closing in on the Social Democrats in the polls and both are dangerously close to the People's Party. What the hell's been going on in Denmark for the new government to have become so hated, so fast? The right already took to flack for the Eurozone crisis here or is it genuinely just leftist voters getting depressed by austerity from a leftist government?

Here's the latest numbers

Party letter - Party name; % of votes at election 2011; % of votes now

A - Socialdemokraterne/Social Democrats; 24.8 %; 18.9 %
B - Det Radikale Venstre/Social Liberal Party; 9.5 %; 9.4 %
C - Det Konservative Folkeparti/Conservative People's Party; 4.9 %; 4.2 %
F - Socialistisk Folkeparti/Socialist People's Party; 9.2 %; 5.9 %
I - Liberal Alliance/Liberal Alliance; 5.0 %; 4.7 %
K - Kristendemokraterne/Christian Democrats; 0.8 %; 0.6 %
O - Dansk Folkeparti/Danish People's Party; 12.3 %; 13.9 %
V - Venstre/Liberals; 26.7 %; 32.7 %
Ø - Enhedslisten/The Unity List - The Red-Green Alliance; 6.7; 9.7 %

Well, the government is loosing voters in both directions, and the word løftebrud (breach of faith) continues to stick to them.

The Government, mainly the Social Democrats, have lost voters to the opposition, primarily the Liberals and Danish People's Party. One of the main reasons is that SD had to accept the sharp reduction of the efterløn (an early retirement pay) that they had campagined vigorously against in the election, if they were to agree on a coalition with the Social Liberal Party. They won some of the decisive votes at the election due to fighting against this reduction, and those voters have now returning to the opposition parties. Other reasons might be the slight loosening up of the immigration policy, general mistrust as the government breached a number of election promises, and the fact that unemployment hasn't fallen.

The Social Democrats and Socialist People's Party are bleeding voters to the left - i.e. the Red-Green Alliance. This, as you suggest, ofc has something to do with austerity measures being driven through by the Government. But the main reason is the tax reform that the Government made with the Liberals and the Conservatives. The main proponents of this reform was raising the limit that makes you pay the top tax rate, allowing a bigger tax allowance for people in employment, and reducing state (unemployment, early retirement, etc.) benefits with 5 % (phased in until 2023). Especially the latter was difficult to defend for the SPP, and two of their MP's refused to vote for the reform. One of them was whipped back into order, but the other one (Özlem Cekic) kept her resistance. She was subsequently removed of all her posts in the party, and is not allowed to speak on the party's behalf. The Red-Green Alliance was furious about the reform; not only because of the content they declared unfair and anti-social, but also because they had negiotated with the government about a tax reform as well. They even thought that they had agreed on a reform that was somewhat leftier, but then the government chose to make the deal with the opposition instead.

This severely damaged the relationship between the Red-Green Alliance and the government. The Red-Green Alliance's spokesperson Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen claimed that their were in opposition to the Government's economic policy, and that they do not feel obliged to support any of the Government's measures. This makes the up-coming budget negotiations extremely exciting. Few believe that the Red-Green Alliance will make the Government collapse, as this will certainly allow the right wing to regain power, but it will be difficult for the party to the accept a budget of mainly liberal economic policy. The Government could make some concessions, but the Social Liberal Party won't allow too many of those. The Government could make a deal about the budget with some of the opposition parties, but then they will have to make a lot of concessions that could ultimately break the Government from within. If the opposition does not get a high number of concessions, they will be more than happy to let the Government fall as they would currently win a landslide victory at an election.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2012, 05:51:26 am by Diouf »Logged

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« Reply #333 on: August 15, 2012, 11:46:52 pm »
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Any chance of a leadership challenge to Helle if the Social Democrats' poll numbers keep falling like this?
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« Reply #334 on: August 16, 2012, 05:36:09 am »
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Any chance of a leadership challenge to Helle if the Social Democrats' poll numbers keep falling like this?

That would be very unlikely, I reckon. The incumbent prime minister is virtually never challenged. If they fell behind the Red-Green Alliance in the polls or came very close at doing that, then perhaps she would be challenged, but I still wouldn't consider it likely too happen. Even the SPP leader Villy Søvndal, whose party's crisis seems slighty bigger, has not been challenged, and he was widely supported at their latest party conference.

If Helle loses an election, then of course it's another talk. Then it's very likely that she will be challenged, and the question would be whether she would want to continue as party leader. Right now the most likely candidates to lead the Social Democrats after Helle would probably be one of these three:

Mette Frederiksen, MP 2011- and currently Minister of Employment
She used to be considered a part of the left wing of the party, which was non-flatteringly referred to as the Hugo Chavez-fraction, but has moved towards more centrist position in recent years, especially after becoming minister. She's the second-most popular minister, Helle btw is nr. 21, and has managed to appear compassionate while also being able to make tough decisions, and agree on reforms with the opposition

Nicolai Wammen, MP 2001-2005, mayor of Aarhus 2006-2011, MP 2011- and currently Minister for European Affairs. He is considered quite centrist and could be the compromise candidate between the two wings. He was, however, awarded the unfavourable post as Minister for European Affairs which brings him little media attention, especially as the Danish presidency has ended and the opt-out referendums has been indefinitely postponed. He was probably given this low-profile job because he was considered the frontrunner to challenge Helle if she had lost the 2011 election; rumours said that he had begun inquiring for support in the party, so he was considered a threat and somewhat illoyal.

Nick Hækkerup, mayor of Hillerød 2000-2007, MP 2007- and currently Minister of Defence.
He is the candidate from the right-wing of the party, like Helle,  and is a part of the Hækkerup-family who have had several influential members of the Social Democrats for generations. He had a great relationsship with the business community when he was mayor.

Of course a relatively unknown member of the party could also emerge, much like Helle herself did when she won the leadership election in 2005.

I can apparently not include links in my post, but if you search google for "Villy-effekten er stendød" then the first article appearing from MetroExpress, provides you with the list of ministers ranked according to popularity.
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« Reply #335 on: August 16, 2012, 09:14:59 am »
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Looking at those polling figures/changes it seems that beyond some movement (perhaps even polarisation) on the Left (F > Ø) and Right (C, I, K > O) the real movement is a 6% swing from A > V.
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« Reply #336 on: August 16, 2012, 10:37:26 am »
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Looking at those polling figures/changes it seems that beyond some movement (perhaps even polarisation) on the Left (F > Ø) and Right (C, I, K > O) the real movement is a 6% swing from A > V.

The major movement on the left is undoubtedly from F to Ø; at the election in 2011 F had lost just above 2 % of the votes to Ø since the 2007 election. This movement seems to have continued, and accelerated after the aforementioned tax reform. Some of A's voters are moving to Ø as well, 1 % of the electorate moved from A to Ø at the 2011 election, and my guess would be that around 1 % further has made that move now.

I'm not sure, however, that your movement on the right is correct. O lost a bit above 1 % to A at the 2011 election, probably mainly because O had agree to drastically reduce the efterløn scheme. But since A agreed to that reform after the election, my guess is that these voters have returned to O, maybe even with some interest. O could have pinched some voters from C in addition to the 0.5 % they took at the election, but I don't think that O has picked up many voters from K or I. I't probably mainly V who has picked up votes from the other right-wing parties; they reason why V gained one mandate in the 2011 election was that they gained just above 2 % from C, which more than covered the losses they made to other parties, so I imagine that V has kept on eating C.

V has probably picked up 4 % or so from A, which is a quite massive swing. I listed some of the reasons for that in the post with the poll numbers. The swing has been particularly significant among working class voters. At the 2011 election A received 30.5 of the working class vote, while V received 23.0 %. These numbers are now more than reversed: V receive 33.4 %, while A % only receive 19.6 %.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2012, 04:27:04 pm by Diouf »Logged

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« Reply #337 on: September 06, 2012, 02:12:07 pm »
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Per Ørum Jørgensen, leader of the Christian Democrats, has withdrawn from the party because the party members in his constituency refused to nominate him for the leadership election at the party conference next month. Jørgensen left the Conservatives in 2010 to join the Christian Democrats, and led the party in the 2011 election campaign. The party received 0.8 %, and was quite far from reaching the 2 % required for entrance into Folketinget. The party hoped to gain a constituency mandate in the Westernmost multi-member constituency, but 2.9 % of the votes in Vestjylland (Western Jutland), Jørgensen's constituency, was not enough either.

The party members in his constituency were disappointed with his decision to move to Copenhagen, and thereby giving up his candidacies for the regional and municipal elections in Vestjylland next year; at least in the latter he stood a decent chance of being elected. They also say that they prefer a leader who could provide "a stronger and more stable internal communication". Furthermore, some of the hard-core Christians disapproved of the fact that he is getting re-married and this with a woman who already has two children from a former marriage.

It will be interesting to see what strategy the Christian Democrats will pursue now, as that has shifted quite notable a few times in the last ten years. The party started out in 1970 to oppose the recently passed liberalization of restrictions on pornography and the legalization of abortion. They entered parliament in the Earthquake election of 1973. Soon they broadened their programme to include environmental protection, a high degree of development aid, a centrist economic policy and support for the nucleus family. They usually received between 2 and 3 % of the votes, with 5,3 % in 1974 as the peak, which kept them continuously in the Folketing between 1973-1994, and participated in centre-right governments from 1982-1988, and a centre-left government from 1993-1994. But some of their policies were increasingly picked up by other parties, so they had some difficulties in retaining the voter share, and they just failed to reach the 2 % threshold at the 1994 election.

In the following years the pursued a more agrarian policy which allowed them to pick up voters as the traditional agrarian party, the Liberals, was in the process of becoming a broader party. This allowed the Christian party to re-enter parliament in 1998, and pass the threshold in 2001 as well. However, they barely had any influence on legislation while the Liberals re-gained some trust in agrarian areas, so they failed to achieve representation in parliament at the 2005-election. So in the 2007 election they had made a rather radical shift towards the left; they supported Thorning-Schmidt as PM, were a loud opponent of the Danish People Party, and pursued more leftish economic policies. But they only received 0.9 %; their worst result ever. From 2008-2010 they returned to the beginning with a quite right-winged religious leader, until Jørgensen took over the party. In the 2011 election he emphasized a sound economic policy, more support for the outskirts of Denmark and wanted Lars Løkke Rasmussen as PM.

So the question is whether they go left, right or religious; all roads they have tried in recent years. But no matter which road they take, it will be difficult for them to keep the party united and to pass the threshold at the next Folketing election.
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« Reply #338 on: September 06, 2012, 02:25:50 pm »
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Very informative. Thanks, Diouf.
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« Reply #339 on: September 07, 2012, 05:25:08 am »
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Very good Diouf. Although the English term for jordskredsvalg would be land-slide election not earth quake election.

Nice that there are actually things happening on the political scene in Denmark. The politics on this side of Öresund are really uneventful, with the exception of the recent death of a 24-year-old MP.
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« Reply #340 on: September 07, 2012, 06:27:28 am »
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Very good Diouf. Although the English term for jordskredsvalg would be land-slide election not earth quake election.

Nice that there are actually things happening on the political scene in Denmark. The politics on this side of Öresund are really uneventful, with the exception of the recent death of a 24-year-old MP.

I mainly understand land-slide election as a big win for a certain party or block, like the Tony Blair victory of 1997, which was not what happened in 1973 so I thought that term could add some confusion. I know Earthquake election is not a really good term, but it was difficult to find a term that covered the massive upheaval of the political system without being a significant shift to one side or the other politically. The main story of the 1973 election was that the four old parties dropped from a total of 84 % of the votes to 58,3 %, and the number of parties represented in Folketinget was doubled from five to ten.

Yes, Danish politics is quite eventful at the moment. The very exciting negotiations about the budget 2013 is starting, and a judicial commission has begun investegating the possible leaks and abuse of power regarding Thorning-Schmidt's tax case. Today another very interesting thing happened, at least in terms of personnel, which I will make a post about in a very short time.
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« Reply #341 on: September 07, 2012, 06:29:57 am »
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Yeah, 'landslide' as a term doesn't really cover that. Earthquake is probably closer, though would usually be preceded with 'political'.
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« Reply #342 on: September 07, 2012, 07:26:01 am »
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Villy Søvndal has announced that he is stepping down as leader of the Socialist People's Party, but he will stay as Minister for Foreign Affairs. The 18 members of the SPP Executive Committee will meet on Monday to decide on a deadline for SPP members to announce their candidacy as leader. If only one candidate is running, then he/she can simply be confirmed leader by a majority of the member in the Executive Committee. But in the far more likely scenario with more than one candidate, then there will be some sort of a broader election among the party members. If there are exactly two candidates then there will be a ballot among all members straight away, but if there's more than two candidates then an extraordinary party conference must be held in order to narrow the list down to two candidates, and then a ballot will be held with those two candidates.

Basically, there are two huge fractions and a smaller one in the party. The new leader will definitely be a member of one of the two big fractions, but if the election gets close then the small fraction could cast the deciding votes.

Villy Søvndal and his loyal deputy, Minister for Taxation Thor Möger Pedersen, belong to the so called "Workerite" fraction. They were the ones who pulled the party into the close cooperation with the Social Democrats, and they want the party to be a rather broad party of workers/employees. They have criticized the two other fractions of the party for having too much focus on academics and "clients" (people on state benefits) respectively. Möger Pedersen could have been the logical heir, but he has received a lot of criticism; when people wanted to attack the right-drift of the party without attacking their leader, they fired their bullets at him instead. Furthermore, he was in charge of negotiations on the tax reform that caused a rather big internal uproar and, to some extent, an exodus towards the Red-Green Alliance. So their candidate will most likely be Minister for Health and Prevention Astrid Krag.

The other big fraction is the "Green and Europeans", and consists of a lot of academics and environmentalists. Their emphasis is on environmental policy and a positive attitude towards the EU, but they have also broadly accepted the right-turn of the party. They have two obvious candidates: Minister for the Environment Ida Auken and Minister for Trade and Investment (export in daily terms) Pia Olsen Dyhr. Olsen Dyhr lost the leadership election against Søvndal in 2005, and seems less popular in the party and the population than Auken. One of these might not run for leader, and support the other, or they could both run, and then one of them will go through to the ballot against Astrid Krag.

The small, but potentially influential, fraction is the left-wing of the party, which among others include rebel MP Özlem Cekic. They have been quite outspoken in their criticism when they think the party has moved too far towards the right on economic and value questions. Therefore the two other fractions of the party have tried to keep them away from influential positions in the party, and no one from this fraction is minister.
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« Reply #343 on: September 07, 2012, 07:38:52 am »
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I stand corrected on the earth quake thing then. Smiley

Intresting that Sövndal is stepping down. That makes it leadership switches in two parties in a short period. Very intresting. Was this brought on by some internal crtisism or conflict or as with Kjearsgaard, that he simply wished to retire?

Also Diouf, if you don't mind me asking, where do you stand politically?

   
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« Reply #344 on: September 07, 2012, 08:04:20 am »
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I stand corrected on the earth quake thing then. Smiley

Intresting that Sövndal is stepping down. That makes it leadership switches in two parties in a short period. Very intresting. Was this brought on by some internal crtisism or conflict or as with Kjearsgaard, that he simply wished to retire?

Also Diouf, if you don't mind me asking, where do you stand politically?

Well, he has been critized by the left-wing fraction, especially since the polling numbers started to decline. But they were never really close at mounting a real challenge to him, as the two big fractions were united in their support to the movement towards the centre, and the participation in government. So it was basically his own wish to retire, and he probably hopes that a new leader can bring them some new energy and improve their polling numbers. He said that he already knew at the 2011 election that it would be his last as a leader, but he wanted to give the party some time to get used to being in government before stepping down.

Somewhere on the right, basically. Voted for Lykke Friis, (now former) Minister for Climate and Energy and equal rights, from the Liberals at the 2011 election. At the regional election next year I will probably vote for the Christian Democrats or the Joint Western List; i.e. whatever de-centralizing party/list that runs. Not completely sure at municipial and European election yet, currently leaning towards Liberals at the former and Conservatives at the latter.
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« Reply #345 on: September 21, 2012, 05:06:40 am »
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The deadline has just run out for SPP members to announce their leader candidacy. Two candidates have decided to run: Astrid Krag and Annette Vilhelmsen. From September 23 to September 30 the two candidates will participate in debates around the country in the local SPP branches. The 16.000 party members will then have the chance to vote from October 1 until October 11, and on October 13 the winner will be announced on a party conference.
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« Reply #346 on: September 21, 2012, 05:10:50 am »
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Astrid Krag is 29 years old, and is currently a MP and Minister for Health and Prevention. She studied Political Science but never finished. From 2005-2007 she was leader of the SPP Youth, and in November 2007 she was elected to parliament for the first time. She definitely belongs to the "workerite" fraction of the party which has tried to make the party ready for government by moving it closer towards the Social Democrats. When she was spokesperson for immigration she symbolized just that as she obviously pursued a stricter immigration policy than the party had been used to. However, her first year as a minister hasn't been very impressing; she has mostly been faceless and has not launched new ideas/initiatives etc. She has, admittedly, been on maternity leave in three months but she could still have been far more visible. She was placed 13 out of 23 at the latest list of minister popularity.



Annette Vilhelmsen is 52 years old, and a MP. She was a teacher from 1983 until 2001; in 2001 she finished her master in education/pedagogy. Since then she has worked as consultant and leader of a knowledge center. From 2001-2011 she was a member of the municipality council in Kerteminde, and in 2011 she was elected to the Folketing. Few people knew of her outside of Funen before she decided to run as a leader but it seems clear that she belongs to the left wing of the party.

This is to a quite extreme degree a referendum on the current leadership of the party. Out of the 16 MPs, Krag is supported by 6 members; they include the four remaining ministers and the political spokesperson. The non-MP Minister of Taxation Thor Möger Pedersen, who is often depicted as the dark puppeteer behind many SPP decisions, also supports Krag together with the party's two MEPs and highly ranked councillors in Aarhus, Odense and Copenhagen.
Vilhelmsen's support in the higher ranks of the party is broader but less prominent. She is supported by 7 MPs who are rebels, backbenchers, and/or former high ranked members. Furthermore, a newspaper asked the members of the Executive Committee and the local party leaders who they preferred. Only 64 out of 135 answered, but 53 % of those 64 preferred Vilhelmsen while only 27 % preferred Krag. 20 % had not made up their mind yet.

If Krag is elected then SPP will more or less continue with the same strategy. If Vilhelmsen is elected, however, the party will retract, at least somewhat, towards the left. This will probably help SPP to regain some of their lost voters but it will also strain the relationship between the governing parties further.
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Diouf
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« Reply #347 on: September 30, 2012, 08:04:58 am »
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The last SPP leadership debate was held today in Nørrebro in inner Copenhagen. The bookies and many pundits consider Vilhelmsen the favourite after a poll among party leaders at the lowest unit level. 238 out of 395 answered the newspaper Berlingske, and 59 % of them supported Vilhelmsen while 30 % supported Krag. But an important point to remember is that SPP's membership figures surged after Søvndal's takeover from 8,213 in 2005 to 17,883 in 2010. And despite a decline to around 15,600 today, this is a lot of members who joined under Søvndal's reign and must be somewhat more loyal towards his wing than longtime members. The big question is whether these new and mainly young members are still enthusiastic enough about Søvndal's project to turn out in force and vote for Astrid Krag.



In other news, the Conservatives are having their party conference and are trying to brand themselves as the most borgerlige (bürgerlich, bourgeois) party - i.e. combining a liberal economic policy with traditional right-wing/conservative values. And while that should clearly differentiate them from the Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party, the difficult part is how they can differ from the Liberals while also regaining their former voters from that party. They are trying to achieve that by distancing themselves from the Social Liberal party, and by attacking the Liberals for their attitude towards economic reform when they were in government together.

The mass exodus from the Conservatives to the Liberals accelerated during the 2011 election when Conservative leader Lars Barfoed made an agreement of cooperation across the middle with Social Liberal leader Margrethe Vestager. The agreement was little else than fine words but many Conservative voters feared that the party was becoming centrist and moving towards the Social Liberals, so they voted for the Liberals instead. The party has tried to regain those voters at this conference by lambasting the social liberal and social constructivist policies of the Social Liberal party in a so massive way that it almost resembled the DPP conference held a few weeks ago.

Party leader Lars Barfoed also attacked the Liberals for their reluctance to economic reforms during much of their time together in government from 2001-2011. The Conservatives wanted reforms of taxation, unemployment benefits, efterløn ( early pension scheme) etc. but the Liberals rejected them or agreed to watered-down proposals only. When the Liberals finally agreed to some of those reforms in 2010/2011 they took much of the credit for them. Barfoed also claimed that he facilitated the negotiations on the recent tax reform, so that the government made it with the right-winged parties instead of the Red-Green Alliance.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 03:12:27 pm by Diouf »Logged

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« Reply #348 on: October 05, 2012, 09:40:09 am »
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A average polling from Berlingske after a couple of polls have been published in the last days.

A Social Democrats                        18.2 % 32 seats
B Social Liberal Party                      8.7  % 15 seats
C Conservative People's Party          3.9   % 7 seats
F Socialist People's Party                6.5 %   11 seats
I Liberal Alliance                            4.9 %    9 seats
K Christian Democrats                     0.5 %    0 seats
O Danish People's Party                   14.2 % 25 seats
V Liberals                                      33.2 %  58 seats
Ø Red-Green Alliance                       9.9 %   18 seats

As this is without the North Atlantic seats, 88 seats are required to have a majority. Brackets explains movement since 2011 election

Current government (A+B+F)  58 seats (-19 seats)
Liberals alone (V)  58 seats (+11)
Current majority (A+B+F+Ø) 76 seats (-13)
2001-2011 majority (V+C+O) 90 seats (+13)
Liberal economic majority (V+C+I+B) 89 seats (+8)


The budget negotiations have largely stalled due to the ongoing leadership election in SPP. No matter who wins, we will probably see a Cabinet reshuffle shortly after. Krag would want to get a better post than Minister of Health and Prevention where she will always have to answer for mistakes made somewhere in the health Service. Vilhelmsen will of course want a minister post for herself, but will probably also drag one or two of her supporters into the government.

The easy sacrifice for both candidates will be Minister for Business and Growth Ole Sohn who is haunted by his past. The 58-year-old Sohn, who has actually done rather well as minister, was leader of the Communist Party from 1987 to 1991. Stories about how the Soviet Union funded the Communist Party have penetrated the media since then, and it has become clear that they certainly did it by overpaying the Communist Party's printing house. Sohn has admitted that, but has claimed that he did not take any direct support from Soviet officials and that he tried to stop the indirect support. But a few times in the last year or so documents have suggested otherwise so his personal credibility has been tarnished which makes it harder for him to get good publicity and to set an agenda.

Unlike Krag, Vilhelmsen has not promised that Søvndal will be allowed to continue as Minister for Foreign Affairs but I think its unlikely that she dumps him. If she wants to make a significant dissociation to the ancien régime, then she could remove the young Minister of Taxation Thor Möger Pedersen, who is quite unpopular in the SPP support base. The Social Democrats and the Social Liberal Party could use the opportunity to change some ministers themselves, but I don't think they will do that, even though the former has a few rather unpopular ministers as well.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 04:32:23 am by Diouf »Logged

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« Reply #349 on: October 12, 2012, 05:16:22 am »
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Today SPP Minister for Business and Growth Ole Sohn announced that he's not going to run in the next general election. Therefore he advices the new SPP leader, who will be announced tomorrow, to replace him. Both leadership candidates would probably have replaced him anyway so in this way he leaves government before being kicked out of the it.

Sohn started his career as a ship's cook and an earth and concrete worker. He quickly rose through the ranks in the local union for semiskilled workers which he led from 1977-1987 and in the Communist Party where he joined the central committee in 1981 and led the party from 1987 to 1991. The party hadn't been represented in parliament since 1979, and was torn apart by the disagreements between hardline communists and Gorbachev sympathizers like Sohn. So shortly after most of the far-left parties united in the Red-Green Alliance, Sohn joined the Socialist People's Party. He has been a MP since 1998 and since Søvndal won the leadership election in 2005, he has been one of the most influential members of the party.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 05:18:19 am by Diouf »Logged

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