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Author Topic: Denmark parliamentary election: 15-09-2011  (Read 30301 times)
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change08
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« Reply #75 on: August 31, 2011, 08:53:05 pm »
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Anyone kind enough to give any brief outlines of the issues, the parties, how the leaders are perceived, etc? Thanks for any help.
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« Reply #76 on: August 31, 2011, 08:58:30 pm »
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Megafon poll from yesterday had the Social Democrats slightly behind Venstre, but the left still easily ahead. I hope this doesn't become another left-wing "defeat from the jaws of victory" moment we've grown oh so used to.

Seems that a lot of polls come out every day or so; trackers? So long there are only a few like that, best not to worry too much.

Besides, I don't think that 'defeat from the jaws of victory' is limited to our side of the fence. Most recent defeats have been obvious from miles off, and quite a few haven't been quite so bad as looked likely during the campaign. Mind you, if that sort of thing happens just once it can be quite scarring.
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« Reply #77 on: September 01, 2011, 12:24:31 pm »
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Anyone kind enough to give any brief outlines of the issues, the parties, how the leaders are perceived, etc? Thanks for any help.

Venstre/Liberal:Just want to stay in power, ideological push some buzz words about individual choice and freedom, but after ten years of expanding the bureaucracy no one really believe them. Mostly push that they aren't the SocDems. Their leader PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen are seen as a tired little man, who fumble from issue to issue. Most believe them to be more responsable on fiscal issues

Social Democrats: People mostly see them as the guarantee for the survival of the welfare state, use most of their time warning that it's going hurt when they get power and say that everybody are going to hurt everybody equally and they promise nothing. Ironic this seem popular among the population, mostly because they are tired of Venstre, but also because it's seen as a short term il tasting medicine. Helle Thorning-Schmidt is not very popular neither internal in the party or among the wider population, but most think that she will be a good PM. She will likely win.
While left, the SocDems lack the bleeding hearts of the rest of the left, and are willing to do what's necessary to win, rule or make Denmark prosper. This are a mayor reason to why they can get away with promise doom to everybody, because people know that the SocDem want what's best for the entire population, even if it hurt on the road to that goal

DPP: Nationalist, anti-immigration, anti-EU, want to turn the clock back to the early sixties, through they are pro-choice and gay rights. Beside their voter segment most people are tired of them, including the rest of the right, so they have started a internal war on the right with the conservative. They will likely win the battle but lose influence, by making the centre-right voters move to the left. Pia Kjærsgaard is the most hated, feared and respected politician in Danish politic, but most voters want her to lose influence.

SPP: Have more less evolved into the left-wing of the SocDems, doesn't love EU like most parties but accept it. Villy Søvndal have a incredible personal popularity, but he has become unable to translate that into votes anymore.

Social Liberals: Bleeding hearts liberals, imagine a American liberal, with more fiscal conservative policies, but all the arrongance of the American "centrists".
They want to lower the taxes on work, raise it on property, open the borders for immigration, more European federalism and cooperation between the right and left (keep DPP away from power). Their biggest weakness are their arrogance, which ensure that many who agree with them won't vote for them, another weakness are that their voters tend to be a lot more fiscal left than they are. Margrethe Vestage hard to say, the media and the "creative class" love her, but outside that segment people tgend to find her off putting.

Conservatives: Want to cooperate over the middle to get rid of DPP's influence, through after ten years of cooperation few believes them, beside that lower taxes. Lars Barfod: who?

Liberal Alliance:; Lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes and lower taxes. The party is more or less bought and paid by Saxo Bank, a bank well known for it asocial and borderline criminal behaviour. Anders Samuelsen want to create a new centrist party, the problem are that the moment Saxo Bank cut the fiscal support the party is unlikely to survive. As a person Anders are popular among his voters and seen as a fanatic by everybody else.

Unity List: take a standard college socialist's opinions and make a party out of that and you have unity list. Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen she's something of a light weight, but she's also the world's nicest girl, that's maybe her biggest strength, everybody like her, including her opponents, so not only they don't want to attack, they would likely get a backlash from their voters if they did. So even Pia Kjærsgaard, who take a deep personal pleasure in ripping the limbs of other politicians treat her nice.

Christian Democrats: anti-abortion, anti-gay adoption but beside that a typical centre left party, except that they hate the centre-left. Per Ørum Jørgensen a complete non-entity.



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« Reply #78 on: September 01, 2011, 05:05:41 pm »
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What differentiates Venstre from the Conservatives? Is it simply history or are there policy/appeal differences between them?
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« Reply #79 on: September 02, 2011, 08:20:49 am »
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What differentiates Venstre from the Conservatives? Is it simply history or are there policy/appeal differences between them?

Primary history and voter segment. The Conservatives tend to be slightly more nationalist, pro-environment and pro-big state, beside the Conservative are much more urban, while Venstre tend to be rural. But any policy one adopt the other can adopt too.

It's important to remember that in Danish politics the four old parties (SocDem, SocLib, Venstre and the Conservative) tend to have much more class, region and income-based voter segments, who are quite loyal, while the new parties are much more random in voter segments and their voters are much more illoyal.
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« Reply #80 on: September 02, 2011, 08:26:35 am »
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Which shows up in maps of party, support of course.
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« Reply #81 on: September 02, 2011, 08:55:15 am »
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You must allways remember that i  Denmark agriculture has been important business and Venstre has been consequently very pro free trade. This is opposite to the Norwegian and Finnish agrarian parties that used to be fairly anti-EU. Furthermore, in Denmark three is few areas that were really rural (sparsely populated or long distance to closest city).
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« Reply #82 on: September 02, 2011, 09:00:33 am »
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Which shows up in maps of party, support of course.

Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

*They are strong in urban area, and moderate sized in rural areas, so they benefitted the most of these reforms (which was meant to weaken them)
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« Reply #83 on: September 02, 2011, 09:05:15 am »
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RV used to have non-Copenhagen support. How did these places differ from Venstre dominated municipalities.
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« Reply #84 on: September 02, 2011, 09:10:16 am »
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Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

Are results of the last general election by municipality still online somewhere?

Quote
*They are strong in urban area, and moderate sized in rural areas, so they benefitted the most of these reforms (which was meant to weaken them)

Often the way when local government changes are influenced by partisan considerations. The old South Glamorgan County Council was drawn in the 1970s to give the Tories a better than even chance of running it in an even year, but had a Labour majority for all but four years of its existence.
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« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2011, 09:57:15 am »
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*They are strong in urban area, and moderate sized in rural areas, so they benefitted the most of these reforms (which was meant to weaken them)

Gerrymandering backfire ? That's quite interesting, how exactly did it happen ?
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2011, 10:03:33 am »

Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

Are results of the last general election by municipality still online somewhere?

http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2007/dk.htm
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« Reply #87 on: September 02, 2011, 10:11:02 am »
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Yews but you can't see it on regional maps, you need to look at municipality to municipality, and with the last reform many of the rural municipalities has become integrated with former urban municipalities, which are why the SocDem are so dominating on in municipality elections*. The Conservatives are especially strong in Northeast Zealand centred on Gentofte (the richest municipality in Denmark), beside that their primary strongholds are Frederiksberg and Odense. Through they are losing influence in the latter, thanks to the more neoliberal attitude they have taken over the last decade.

Are results of the last general election by municipality still online somewhere?

http://www.kmdvalg.dk/fv/2007/dk.htm

Ah, diolch, diolch, diolch... I shall do something with this. Some work to do first, but, then...
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« Reply #88 on: September 02, 2011, 10:11:38 am »
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*They are strong in urban area, and moderate sized in rural areas, so they benefitted the most of these reforms (which was meant to weaken them)

Gerrymandering backfire ? That's quite interesting, how exactly did it happen ?

Politicians are generally terrible judges of such things.
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« Reply #89 on: September 02, 2011, 10:16:16 am »
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I think I'd side with the Conservatives... hope the government can hang on.
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« Reply #90 on: September 02, 2011, 12:31:55 pm »
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Done for test purposes as much else. Map shows leading party in 2007 by percentage lead and (because the way the Danish party system be) is actively misleading in a couple of places. Party vote maps more fun, but they'll come later. Outline map taken from the Electoral Geography site, not sure where from originally though. Will credit if required, etc.
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« Reply #91 on: September 02, 2011, 12:34:10 pm »
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"F"?
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« Reply #92 on: September 02, 2011, 12:47:50 pm »
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SF's letter.
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« Reply #93 on: September 02, 2011, 12:55:34 pm »
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"F"?

A little repetition ;-)

A = Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats). Alt. S or SD
B = Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party. Litt. Radical Left). Alt. R or RV
C = Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People's Party). Alt. K
F = Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party). Alt. SF (most common)
I = Liberal Alliance. Alt. LA
K = Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats). Alt. KD
O = Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). Alt. DF
V = Venstre (Liberal Party. Litt. Left).
Ø = Enhedslisten (Unity List). Alt. EL
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« Reply #94 on: September 02, 2011, 12:58:55 pm »
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Thank you Al, that's awesome. Smiley
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« Reply #95 on: September 02, 2011, 01:02:40 pm »
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"F"?

A little repetition ;-)

A = Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats). Alt. S or SD
B = Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party. Litt. Radical Left). Alt. R or RV
C = Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People's Party). Alt. K
F = Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party). Alt. SF (most common)
I = Liberal Alliance. Alt. LA
K = Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats). Alt. KD
O = Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). Alt. DF
V = Venstre (Liberal Party. Litt. Left).
Ø = Enhedslisten (Unity List). Alt. EL
Yeah, the only one of these I ever can remember is A. Tongue (And V because it's obvious, obviously.)
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #96 on: September 02, 2011, 01:03:58 pm »
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Done for test purposes as much else. Map shows leading party in 2007 by percentage lead and (because the way the Danish party system be) is actively misleading in a couple of places. Party vote maps more fun, but they'll come later. Outline map taken from the Electoral Geography site, not sure where from originally though. Will credit if required, etc.

Nice map. It do shows Venstre's strength in Jutland, mostly West, South and Triangle area (Vejle, Kolding, Fredericia). SF's power centre in Copenhagen and Lolland (caused by the late great Flemming Bonne, former mayor in Nakskov) SD's strength in the mayor cities and in suburbia. And the Conservative capital of Gentofte.

When you make the party maps, you'll see that Enhedslisten gets most of its votes in central Århus and Copenhagen.
That Radikale Venstre also is a big city party. Little is left of the former radicale strongholds in Holbæk and Salling/Skive.
And that Dansk Folkeparti's votes comes from quite the same areas as Venstre and some parts of suburbia (but not in the areas with high concentration of immigrants)
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« Reply #97 on: September 02, 2011, 01:05:29 pm »
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"F"?

A little repetition ;-)

A = Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats). Alt. S or SD
B = Radikale Venstre (Social Liberal Party. Litt. Radical Left). Alt. R or RV
C = Konservative Folkeparti (Conservative People's Party). Alt. K
F = Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party). Alt. SF (most common)
I = Liberal Alliance. Alt. LA
K = Kristendemokraterne (Christian Democrats). Alt. KD
O = Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). Alt. DF
V = Venstre (Liberal Party. Litt. Left).
Ø = Enhedslisten (Unity List). Alt. EL
Yeah, the only one of these I ever can remember is A. Tongue (And V because it's obvious, obviously.)

C is fairly obvious too. I, O and Ø doesn't really make sense Wink
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« Reply #98 on: September 02, 2011, 01:08:00 pm »
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I suppose the letter O has more white in it than any other letter?
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« Reply #99 on: September 02, 2011, 01:08:45 pm »
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Anyone kind enough to give any brief outlines of the issues, the parties, how the leaders are perceived, etc? Thanks for any help.

Venstre/Liberal:Just want to stay in power, ideological push some buzz words about individual choice and freedom, but after ten years of expanding the bureaucracy no one really believe them. Mostly push that they aren't the SocDems. Their leader PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen are seen as a tired little man, who fumble from issue to issue. Most believe them to be more responsable on fiscal issues

Social Democrats: People mostly see them as the guarantee for the survival of the welfare state, use most of their time warning that it's going hurt when they get power and say that everybody are going to hurt everybody equally and they promise nothing. Ironic this seem popular among the population, mostly because they are tired of Venstre, but also because it's seen as a short term il tasting medicine. Helle Thorning-Schmidt is not very popular neither internal in the party or among the wider population, but most think that she will be a good PM. She will likely win.
While left, the SocDems lack the bleeding hearts of the rest of the left, and are willing to do what's necessary to win, rule or make Denmark prosper. This are a mayor reason to why they can get away with promise doom to everybody, because people know that the SocDem want what's best for the entire population, even if it hurt on the road to that goal

DPP: Nationalist, anti-immigration, anti-EU, want to turn the clock back to the early sixties, through they are pro-choice and gay rights. Beside their voter segment most people are tired of them, including the rest of the right, so they have started a internal war on the right with the conservative. They will likely win the battle but lose influence, by making the centre-right voters move to the left. Pia Kjærsgaard is the most hated, feared and respected politician in Danish politic, but most voters want her to lose influence.

SPP: Have more less evolved into the left-wing of the SocDems, doesn't love EU like most parties but accept it. Villy Søvndal have a incredible personal popularity, but he has become unable to translate that into votes anymore.

Social Liberals: Bleeding hearts liberals, imagine a American liberal, with more fiscal conservative policies, but all the arrongance of the American "centrists".
They want to lower the taxes on work, raise it on property, open the borders for immigration, more European federalism and cooperation between the right and left (keep DPP away from power). Their biggest weakness are their arrogance, which ensure that many who agree with them won't vote for them, another weakness are that their voters tend to be a lot more fiscal left than they are. Margrethe Vestage hard to say, the media and the "creative class" love her, but outside that segment people tgend to find her off putting.

Conservatives: Want to cooperate over the middle to get rid of DPP's influence, through after ten years of cooperation few believes them, beside that lower taxes. Lars Barfod: who?

Liberal Alliance:; Lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes, lower taxes and lower taxes. The party is more or less bought and paid by Saxo Bank, a bank well known for it asocial and borderline criminal behaviour. Anders Samuelsen want to create a new centrist party, the problem are that the moment Saxo Bank cut the fiscal support the party is unlikely to survive. As a person Anders are popular among his voters and seen as a fanatic by everybody else.

Unity List: take a standard college socialist's opinions and make a party out of that and you have unity list. Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen she's something of a light weight, but she's also the world's nicest girl, that's maybe her biggest strength, everybody like her, including her opponents, so not only they don't want to attack, they would likely get a backlash from their voters if they did. So even Pia Kjærsgaard, who take a deep personal pleasure in ripping the limbs of other politicians treat her nice.

Christian Democrats: anti-abortion, anti-gay adoption but beside that a typical centre left party, except that they hate the centre-left. Per Ørum Jørgensen a complete non-entity.





Nice post, and welcome to the forum. I don't agree with everything, especially the part about SF for obvious reasons Wink but hey, it's you outline Cheesy
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